European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Liberty has waived the 95% threshold condition. Liberty has now mandatorily opened again the tender given it owns more than 90% (93.43%),  on same terms until 13 September (settlement 27 September).</li>
<li>At 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 5.4x EV/20e EBITDA for Orange Belgium minorities), the offer is relatively cheap, but also reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and risk of market share losses.</li>
<li>Spread is positive. After the second acceptance period closes, I believe the delisting is extremely likely. With limited liquidity and floor dividend no longer guaranteed, recommendation is accept the offer. </li>
</ul>


Liberty has waived the 95% threshold condition. Liberty has now mandatorily opened again the tender given it owns more than 90% (93.43%),  on same terms until 13 September (settlement 27 September).
At 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 5.4x EV/20e EBITDA for Orange Belgium minorities), the offer is relatively cheap, but also reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and risk of market share losses.
Spread is positive. After the second acceptance period closes, I believe the delisting is extremely likely. With limited liquidity and floor dividend no longer guaranteed, recommendation is accept the offer. 


Liberty/​​Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>Telenet has announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it sets out its recommendation of the Offer.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistic and optically generous, with neither interloper risk nor sweetening to be expected. I believe most investors will cash out. Liberty could eventually drop the acceptance threshold.</li>
<li>Given the ambiguity surrounding both the company and the sector in Belgium, I still think Liberty might acquire Telenet for almost a bargain. Spread is 2.38%/19.8% (gross/annualised).</li>
</ul>


Telenet has announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it sets out its recommendation of the Offer.
The offer is opportunistic and optically generous, with neither interloper risk nor sweetening to be expected. I believe most investors will cash out. Liberty could eventually drop the acceptance threshold.
Given the ambiguity surrounding both the company and the sector in Belgium, I still think Liberty might acquire Telenet for almost a bargain. Spread is 2.38%/19.8% (gross/annualised).


Liberty/​Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources.

  In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources. 

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2023 - Lucror Analytics

Belgium

Telenet Group Holding NV provides telephone and internet services through a network of fiber-optic and coaxial cable.  The company offers customized packages to businesses and individual clients in Belgium.

Telenet Group Holding NV (TNET BB)

Liberty/Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

The offer is relatively cheap, but reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and market share losses. After the reopened period...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

On 7 June, Telenet announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty/​​Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

The offer is relatively cheap, but reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and market share losses. After the reopened period...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/​Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

On 7 June, Telenet announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty/Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

Liberty/Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period