Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our October 1 Int’l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

In our October 1 Int’l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We summarize key takeaways for our checks with the Asian semi supply chain relevant to AAPL’s H1 production and the iPhone 12 launch schedule (incl. 5G model).  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a> is at 80% of full capacity in its main iPhone facility in Shenzhen.  However due to the shutdown in plants and logistics services in both Asian and European countries, Foxconn faces shortages in components from around the world.

We summarize key takeaways for our checks with the Asian semi supply chain relevant to AAPL’s H1 production and the iPhone 12 launch schedule (incl. 5G model).  Foxconn Technology (2354 TT) is at 80% of full capacity in its main iPhone facility in Shenzhen.  However due to the shutdown in plants and logistics services in both Asian and European countries, Foxconn faces shortages in components from around the world. 

AAPL Supply Chain COVID-19 Disruption March Update

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<h2>Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In</h2>After 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe, Lucror Analytics

Felix Fischer

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - September 2024 - Lucror Analytics

Austria

ams AG delivers a broad range of technology solutions for consumer electronics and communication device manufacturers. The Company develops intelligent light sensors, MEMS microphone ICs, NFC solutions, active noise-cancelling ICs, and ultra-low power solutions. ams serves the industrial, medical, and automotive markets with global headquarters in Unterpremstatten, Austria.

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ams AG (AMS SW)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Read our complete International Strategy document to find detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Vermilion Research

AAPL Supply Chain COVID-19 Disruption March Update

We summarize key takeaways for our checks with the Asian semi supply chain relevant to AAPL’s H1 production and the iPhone 12 launch schedule...

JL Warren Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd...

Andrew Lu

Europe HY Trade Book - September 2024 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

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