Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for June 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for June 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - June 2023 - Lucror Analytics

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telenet has announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it sets out its recommendation of the Offer.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistic and optically generous, with neither interloper risk nor sweetening to be expected. I believe most investors will cash out. Liberty could eventually drop the acceptance threshold.</li>
<li>Given the ambiguity surrounding both the company and the sector in Belgium, I still think Liberty might acquire Telenet for almost a bargain. Spread is 2.38%/19.8% (gross/annualised).</li>
</ul>


Telenet has announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it sets out its recommendation of the Offer.
The offer is opportunistic and optically generous, with neither interloper risk nor sweetening to be expected. I believe most investors will cash out. Liberty could eventually drop the acceptance threshold.
Given the ambiguity surrounding both the company and the sector in Belgium, I still think Liberty might acquire Telenet for almost a bargain. Spread is 2.38%/19.8% (gross/annualised).


Liberty/​Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

<ul>
<li>Liberty intends to launch an offer to acquire the minorities in its subsidiary Telenet, taking advantage of the drop in the share price over the last two years.</li>
<li>Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect to BEL-20 index and shares of Telenet peers prior results announcement.</li>
<li>My fair value estimate (DCF based) is €16.2, i.e. 26% downside to the intended offer price. Spread is 5.2%/15.6% (gross/annualised). Cautious long.</li>
</ul>


Liberty intends to launch an offer to acquire the minorities in its subsidiary Telenet, taking advantage of the drop in the share price over the last two years.
Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect to BEL-20 index and shares of Telenet peers prior results announcement.
My fair value estimate (DCF based) is €16.2, i.e. 26% downside to the intended offer price. Spread is 5.2%/15.6% (gross/annualised). Cautious long.


Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - March 2023 - Lucror Analytics

In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and macroeconomic drivers for the year, as well as commodity price trends. We also assess the interest rate exposure of companies in our coverage universe and elaborate on developments for European HY markets, including new issuances and defaults. Lastly, we cover sectoral developments and the key drivers for companies under our coverage. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic for 2023, and believe selected names still offer interesting opportunities, albeit spreads have recovered strongly this year.

  In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and macroeconomic drivers for the year, as well as commodity price trends. We also assess the interest rate exposure of companies in our coverage universe and elaborate on developments for European HY markets, including new issuances and defaults. Lastly, we cover sectoral developments and the key drivers for companies under our coverage.   Overall, we are cautiously optimistic for 2023, and believe selected names still offer interesting opportunities, albeit spreads have recovered strongly this year.   

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2023 - Lucror Analytics

Belgium

Telenet Group Holding NV provides telephone and internet services through a network of fiber-optic and coaxial cable.  The company offers customized packages to businesses and individual clients in Belgium.

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Telenet Group Holding NV (TNET BB)

Europe HY Trade Book - June 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for June 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty/Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

On 7 June, Telenet announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 59% premium, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, with conditions: a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe HY Trade Book - March 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2023 - Lucror Analytics

In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe HY Trade Book - June 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for June 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty/​Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

On 7 June, Telenet announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 59% premium, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, with conditions: a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe HY Trade Book - March 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2023 - Lucror Analytics

In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty/Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period