Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">TRYT (9164 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY880, a 34.6% premium to last close and a 135.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Despite 26.7% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>The chance of a competing proposal is low, as Carlyle’s offer was the highest in the auction. EQT has provided an irrevocable (60.00% ownership ratio), which ensures a done deal.  </li>
</ul>



TRYT (9164 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY880, a 34.6% premium to last close and a 135.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
Despite 26.7% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
The chance of a competing proposal is low, as Carlyle’s offer was the highest in the auction. EQT has provided an irrevocable (60.00% ownership ratio), which ensures a done deal.  


Tryt (9164 JP): Carlyle’s JPY880 Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technopro-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6955:1" rel="noopener">Technopro Holdings (6028 JP)</a>  shares were up 20.7% on Friday based on a Mergermarket report that is conducting a privatisation auction with bids due in six weeks.</li>
<li>Technopro responded that it has been continuously exploring various strategic alternatives, including privatisation, to enhance shareholder value. TechnoPro has the characteristics to make a good privatisation target. </li>
<li>The precedent is Bain's privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x. A similar multiple implies a JPY4,400 offer. TechnoPro can justify a higher multiple. </li>
</ul>



Technopro Holdings (6028 JP)  shares were up 20.7% on Friday based on a Mergermarket report that is conducting a privatisation auction with bids due in six weeks.
Technopro responded that it has been continuously exploring various strategic alternatives, including privatisation, to enhance shareholder value. TechnoPro has the characteristics to make a good privatisation target. 
The precedent is Bain's privatisation of Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x. A similar multiple implies a JPY4,400 offer. TechnoPro can justify a higher multiple. 


TechnoPro (6028 JP): A Good Privatisation Candidate

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technopro-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6955:1" rel="noopener">Technopro Holdings (6028 JP)</a> is a temp/contract staffing platform which specialises in engineering staff (IT engineers far more than machinery, construction, chemicals). The company has been growing.</li>
<li>Overnight, an article appeared in MergerMarket - a high-dollar M&amp;A-related news service - saying the company was going through a sale process. The company confirmed it was one possibility.</li>
<li>The stock went limit up. This quick writeup looks at the framework of the idea, and possibilities.</li>
</ul>



Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) is a temp/contract staffing platform which specialises in engineering staff (IT engineers far more than machinery, construction, chemicals). The company has been growing.
Overnight, an article appeared in MergerMarket - a high-dollar M&amp;A-related news service - saying the company was going through a sale process. The company confirmed it was one possibility.
The stock went limit up. This quick writeup looks at the framework of the idea, and possibilities.


[Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">TRYT (9164 JP)</a> shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.</li>
<li>The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.</li>
<li>The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.</li>
</ul>



TRYT (9164 JP) shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.
The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.
The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.


Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

Japan

Persol Holdings Co., Ltd. provides human resource solutions to a wide variety of customers worldwide. The Company's main operations include temporary staffing services, contract services, and employment services. Temp Holdings also provides outsourcing services and employment support services for job seekers.

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Persol Holdings (2181 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Tryt (9164 JP): Carlyle’s JPY880 Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Kudos to EQT as an auction process resulted in a higher-than-expected offer. An attractive offer and EQT's irrevocable ensure a done deal.

Arun George

TechnoPro (6028 JP): A Good Privatisation Candidate

Precedent transaction multiples imply a JPY4,400 offer. TechnoPro can justify a higher multiple due to its market-leading position and solid...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs

A specialist M&A news service suggests TechnoPro Holdings may be a take-private candidate with bids due in 6 weeks. It doesn't not make sense. I...

Travis Lundy

Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price...

Arun George

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