IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a>, a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150750" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
In Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a>, a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.   </li>
<li>Timee's app allows users to work shifts as short as one hour at restaurants, convenience stores, and hotels, with quick payment for their work.   </li>
<li>The bull case rests on favourable market trends, best-in-class revenue growth, good retention rates, credible growth drivers, and top-quartile EBITDA margins.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.   
Timee's app allows users to work shifts as short as one hour at restaurants, convenience stores, and hotels, with quick payment for their work.   
The bull case rests on favourable market trends, best-in-class revenue growth, good retention rates, credible growth drivers, and top-quartile EBITDA margins.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).</li>
<li>Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.</li>
<li>The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain's tender.</li>
<li>The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. </li>
<li>Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain's tender.
The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. 
Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>'s US$550 Million secondary offering.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Toei Animation (4816 JP)'s US$550 Million secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP), Altium Ltd (ALU AU), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Vinda International (3331 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (18 Feb) - Toei, Outsourcing, YSK, Altium, Ansarada, China TCM, Vinda

Japan

Persol Holdings Co., Ltd. provides human resource solutions to a wide variety of customers worldwide. The Company's main operations include temporary staffing services, contract services, and employment services. Temp Holdings also provides outsourcing services and employment support services for job seekers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Persol Holdings (2181 JP)

Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and...

Arun George

Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on favourable market trends, best-in-class revenue growth, good retention rates, credible growth drivers, and top-quartile...

Arun George

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief at the unchanged terms. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%...

Arun George

Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the IFA's DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition, suggesting Bain maintains terms. The...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Feb) - Toei, Outsourcing, YSK, Altium, Ansarada, China TCM, Vinda

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Outsourcing, YSK, Altium, Ansarada, China TCM, Vinda) and ECM (Toei Animation).

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)