Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>BillionToOne Inc., a fastest-growing healthtech unicorn in the prenatal and oncology testing market in the U.S., set terms for its US IPO.</li>
<li>The California-based molecular diagnostics company posts hyper-growth and enjoys industry-leading gross margins. Positive non-GAAP op income is likely to be achieved in 2025.</li>
<li>BillionToOne Inc. has delivered 3+ years of exceptional revenue growth with a +167% CAGR over the past three years and strong gross margin profile supporting emerging profitability.</li>
</ul>


BillionToOne Inc., a fastest-growing healthtech unicorn in the prenatal and oncology testing market in the U.S., set terms for its US IPO.
The California-based molecular diagnostics company posts hyper-growth and enjoys industry-leading gross margins. Positive non-GAAP op income is likely to be achieved in 2025.
BillionToOne Inc. has delivered 3+ years of exceptional revenue growth with a +167% CAGR over the past three years and strong gross margin profile supporting emerging profitability.


BillionToOne IPO (BLLN.US): Unique Financial Profile For Molecular Diagnostics Company, Strong Buy

<ul>
<li>Heartflow Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company that has pioneered the use of software and AI for diagnosing and managing CAD, is expected to IPO this week.</li>
<li>Heartflow is marketing the sale of ~16.7M shares at $17-$18 per share in upsized initial public offering in the United States.</li>
<li>I believe current IPO valuation range appears to capture much of the near- to mid-term upside potential. Moreover, I’m concerned about the lack of profitability and mounting losses.</li>
</ul>


Heartflow Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company that has pioneered the use of software and AI for diagnosing and managing CAD, is expected to IPO this week.
Heartflow is marketing the sale of ~16.7M shares at $17-$18 per share in upsized initial public offering in the United States.
I believe current IPO valuation range appears to capture much of the near- to mid-term upside potential. Moreover, I’m concerned about the lack of profitability and mounting losses.


Heartflow IPO: Mounting Losses, ~99% Revenue Concentration From a Single Product

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Caris Life Sciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Caris Life Sciences increased the price range on its IPO on Monday ahead of a Wednesday scheduled debut.</li>
<li>According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with a mix of new and existing investors. There are multiple mutual-fund anchor orders in the book.</li>
<li>Given how important this company’s technology is to the cancer arena and the revenue growth  that is “ramping” into the IPO, we like the risk-reward profile of this deal.</li>
</ul>


Caris Life Sciences increased the price range on its IPO on Monday ahead of a Wednesday scheduled debut.
According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with a mix of new and existing investors. There are multiple mutual-fund anchor orders in the book.
Given how important this company’s technology is to the cancer arena and the revenue growth  that is “ramping” into the IPO, we like the risk-reward profile of this deal.


Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Price Bumped Higher, Intersection of Cancer and AI in High Demand

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

United States

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a clinical laboratory. The Company provides genomic sequencing services and analyze molecular and therapeutic data to help physicians to make real-time and data-driven decisions.Tempus AI serves customers in the United States.

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Tempus AI (TEM US)

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

BillionToOne IPO (BLLN.US): Unique Financial Profile For Molecular Diagnostics Company, Strong Buy

Healthtech unicorn BillionToOne Inc. sets terms for US IPO, showing hyper-growth and emerging profitability. In my insight, I discuss IPO...

Andrei Zakharov

Heartflow IPO: Mounting Losses, ~99% Revenue Concentration From a Single Product

Heartflow Inc., a provider of AI-powered scalable software platform for diagnosing and managing CAD, set to IPO this week. In my insight, I...

Andrei Zakharov

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Price Bumped Higher, Intersection of Cancer and AI in High Demand

Caris Life Sciences raises IPO price range due to high demand from investors, reflecting confidence in company's technology and revenue growth...

IPO Boutique

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

BillionToOne IPO (BLLN.US): Unique Financial Profile For Molecular Diagnostics Company, Strong Buy

​Healthtech unicorn BillionToOne Inc. sets terms for US IPO, showing hyper-growth and emerging profitability. In my insight, I discuss IPO...

Andrei Zakharov

Heartflow IPO: Mounting Losses, ~99% Revenue Concentration From a Single Product

​Heartflow Inc., a provider of AI-powered scalable software platform for diagnosing and managing CAD, set to IPO this week. In my insight, I...

Andrei Zakharov

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Price Bumped Higher, Intersection of Cancer and AI in High Demand

​Caris Life Sciences raises IPO price range due to high demand from investors, reflecting confidence in company's technology and revenue growth...

IPO Boutique

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

Healthtech unicorn BillionToOne Inc. sets terms for US IPO, showing hyper-growth and emerging profitability. In my insight, I discuss IPO...

Heartflow Inc., a provider of AI-powered scalable software platform for diagnosing and managing CAD, set to IPO this week. In my insight, I...

Caris Life Sciences raises IPO price range due to high demand from investors, reflecting confidence in company's technology and revenue growth...