Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinxin-fertility-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28003:1" rel="noopener">Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)</a>while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-real-estate-master-fu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22930:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-jreit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:314:1" rel="noopener">Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmg-mori-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11125:1" rel="noopener">Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.</p></div><div>
<p>In Korea, there was large short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss (263750 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-chemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8757:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p>
<p>Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and BYD (1211 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP), freee (4478 JP) and Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP) while shorts decreased on Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP) and Pharma Foods International (2929 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.
In Korea, there was large short covering in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Pearl Abyss (263750 KS), Lotte Chemical (011170 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.


Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.</p></div><div>
<p>Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.</p>
<p>I've covered the positive aspects of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-positives-largest-independent-big-data-analytics-provider" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider</a>.</p>
</div><div><p>In this insight, I'll talk about the not so pleasant aspects.</p></div>

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.
Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.
I've covered the positive aspects of the deal in my earlier note, Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider.
In this insight, I'll talk about the not so pleasant aspects.

Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Since 2017 we have written various insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vivendi-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21076:1" rel="noopener">Vivendi SA (VIV FP) and Chairman Bollore.</a></p><p><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vivendi-coming-ipo-of-universal-music-group-umg-gives-best-exposure-to-growth-in-streaming-music" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14102" rel="noopener">Vivendi: Coming IPO of Universal Music Group (UMG) Gives Best Exposure to Growth in Streaming Music</a> in October 2017</em></p><p><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vivendi-50-trade-sale-of-universal-music-will-receive-strong-interest-17-2-2022-is-coming-closer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24640" rel="noopener">Vivendi: 50%Trade Sale of Universal Music Will Receive Strong Interest; 17/2/2022 Is Coming Closer</a> in October 2018</em></p><p><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vivendi-viv-fp-equity-all-about-umg-bet-on-vincent-bollore-to-create-maximum-value-by-17-02-22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:33243" rel="noopener">Vivendi (VIV FP Equity): All About UMG. Bet on Vincent Bollore to Create Maximum Value by 17/02/22</a> in October 2019</em></p><p>The crown jewel of Vivendi has been UMG and news over the weekend has come out that 60% of UMG will be listed in Amsterdam. Recall, 20% of UMG is already owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> which increased its stake from 10% to 20% in late December 2020. The remaining 20% will stay with Vivendi.</p><p>Vivendi's share price rallied 19.6% on the news and as it is digested <strong>all eyes should now be on 17/02/2022.</strong> This is the official retirement date of Vincent Bollore. As we have predicted over the years (see previous insights) he will want to leave the group on a high note.</p><p>We, therefore, expect more value-enhancing moves for Vivendi shareholders by Vincent Bollore. Vivendi remains a solid large-cap European story with anticipation for UMG's IPO surely building in 2Q and 3Q. The question that has been posed since 2017 remains the same: would you rather own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spotify-technology-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26772:1" rel="noopener">Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US)</a> (65 billion USD market cap), which is the distributor of music, <em><strong>OR</strong></em> would you rather own the largest music catalog owner?</p><p>Our bet is that once this understanding gets out in the market valuation expectations for UMG will be ramped up aggressively from the minimum 30 billion EUR valuation. Over the coming six months Wall Street banks will be falling over each other to help investors understand the opportunity we have been writing about since 2017. Better late than never.</p>

Since 2017 we have written various insights on Vivendi SA (VIV FP) and Chairman Bollore.Vivendi: Coming IPO of Universal Music Group (UMG) Gives Best Exposure to Growth in Streaming Music in October 2017Vivendi: 50%Trade Sale of Universal Music Will Receive Strong Interest; 17/2/2022 Is Coming Closer in October 2018Vivendi (VIV FP Equity): All About UMG. Bet on Vincent Bollore to Create Maximum Value by 17/02/22 in October 2019The crown jewel of Vivendi has been UMG and news over the weekend has come out that 60% of UMG will be listed in Amsterdam. Recall, 20% of UMG is already owned by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) which increased its stake from 10% to 20% in late December 2020. The remaining 20% will stay with Vivendi.Vivendi's share price rallied 19.6% on the news and as it is digested all eyes should now be on 17/02/2022. This is the official retirement date of Vincent Bollore. As we have predicted over the years (see previous insights) he will want to leave the group on a high note.We, therefore, expect more value-enhancing moves for Vivendi shareholders by Vincent Bollore. Vivendi remains a solid large-cap European story with anticipation for UMG's IPO surely building in 2Q and 3Q. The question that has been posed since 2017 remains the same: would you rather own Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US) (65 billion USD market cap), which is the distributor of music, OR would you rather own the largest music catalog owner?Our bet is that once this understanding gets out in the market valuation expectations for UMG will be ramped up aggressively from the minimum 30 billion EUR valuation. Over the coming six months Wall Street banks will be falling over each other to help investors understand the opportunity we have been writing about since 2017. Better late than never.

Vivendi: IPO of UMG Late '21 to Benefit Tencent; Still Watching 17/02/22 For Final Bollore Fireworks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.</p>

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Baidu (BIDU), iQiyi (IQ), Trip.com (TCOM), and Autohome (ATHM) got negative industry data for the whole year of 2020.</li>
<li>A Meituan delivery worker appeared in a Freshippo store, but Meituan should be a major competitor of Freshippo’s related party, Ele.me.</li>
</ul>


Baidu (BIDU), iQiyi (IQ), Trip.com (TCOM), and Autohome (ATHM) got negative industry data for the whole year of 2020.
A Meituan delivery worker appeared in a Freshippo store, but Meituan should be a major competitor of Freshippo’s related party, Ele.me.


China Internet Weekly (15Feb2021): Meituan Employee Showed up in Freshippo, Bad Data for Four Apps

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong...

Sumeet Singh

Vivendi: IPO of UMG Late '21 to Benefit Tencent; Still Watching 17/02/22 For Final Bollore Fireworks

Vivendi popped 19.6% as plans for a listing of UMG on the Amsterdam exchange were announced. With Vincent Bollore's retirement coming up, expect...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight.

Vermilion Research

China Internet Weekly (15Feb2021): Meituan Employee Showed up in Freshippo, Bad Data for Four Apps

Baidu , iQiyi, Trip.com, and Autohome got negative industry data.A Meituan delivery worker showed up in a Freshippo store.

Ming Lu

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