Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Regulatory uncertainty, rapid technological disruption, and frequent change in consumer behavior often make businesses less predictable in China;</li>
<li>However, we manage to find some silver lining in some categories when it comes to this highly unpredictable market.</li>
</ul>


Regulatory uncertainty, rapid technological disruption, and frequent change in consumer behavior often make businesses less predictable in China;
However, we manage to find some silver lining in some categories when it comes to this highly unpredictable market.


Seeking the Predictable in the Unpredictable Chinese Market

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> (Lufax) raised around US$2.4bn via its US listing. The company is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> (Ping An).</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Lufax is a technology-empowered personal financial services platform in China. The company aims to address the demand for personal lending among small business owners, as well as salaried workers in China. It also provides wealth management solutions to China’s middle class and affluent population.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>I covered the various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-pre-ipo-the-positives-able-to-grow-despite-the-headwinds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax Pre-IPO - The Positives - Able to Grow Despite the Headwinds</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-pre-ipo-the-negatives-remains-in-flux" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains in Flux</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-pre-ipo-peer-review-bigger-than-ant-s-credittech-in-revenue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax Pre-IPO - Peer Review - Bigger than Ant’s CreditTech, in Revenue</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-stuck-with-the-earlier-fundraising-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax IPO - Stuck with the Earlier Fundraising Valuation</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
<p>In this insight, talk about deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different ADS levels.</p>
</div>


Lufax Holdings (LU US) (Lufax) raised around US$2.4bn via its US listing. The company is backed by Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) (Ping An).


Lufax is a technology-empowered personal financial services platform in China. The company aims to address the demand for personal lending among small business owners, as well as salaried workers in China. It also provides wealth management solutions to China’s middle class and affluent population.


I covered the various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:



Lufax Pre-IPO - The Positives - Able to Grow Despite the Headwinds
Lufax Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains in Flux
Lufax Pre-IPO - Peer Review - Bigger than Ant’s CreditTech, in Revenue



Lufax IPO - Stuck with the Earlier Fundraising Valuation


In this insight, talk about deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different ADS levels.


Lufax IPO Trading - Possible FTSE Inclusion Might Help in the Short-Term

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of October, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$31bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 
Beverage Bottler
6.9
Poss. Scheme
25%


Coca Cola Amatil: Flat Or Fizzy?







Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 
Super registry
2.1
Poss. Scheme
30%


Link Admin/PEP: All Together Now. Again Link Admin: Hardball Tactics After Meagre Bump 



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) / Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) 
Mining
4.4
Scheme




Northern Star/Saracen: Merger Of Equals
Saracen – Trade the Northern Star Deal and Then Stay Long Northern Star




Hong Kong




CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
Airport facilities
0.3
Scheme
20.36%


CIMC-Tianda (445 HK): Scheme Offer Lead By CIMC



Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 
Mining
0.3
Pre-con Scheme
(2.43%)


Hengxing (2303 HK): Offer From Shandong Gold



Powerleader Science &amp; Tech (8236 HK) 
Cloud Computing
0.1
Merger by Absorption
14.6%


Powerleader (8236 HK): Small Deal, Trading Wide



Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 
Turbines
0.4
Merger by Absorption
68.4%


Shanghai Prime (2345 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent



Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 
Hypermarkets
2.2
MGO
2.14%


Sun Art (6808 HK): Alibaba Takes Control



Japan




Medical &amp; Biological Lab (4557 JP) 
Diagnostics
0.1
Tender Offer
23.8%


JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical &amp; Biological Labs (4557 JP)


Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)
Retailer
1.6 - 2.1
Tender Offer
45.8%/91.0%



DCM Does a Full Takeover of Shimachu - Looks Like a Strong Price. Look Again Nitori To Make a Rival Bid for Shimachu? More Fun To Go 
Gaming Out a Nitori Bid for Shimachu Nitori Bids UP For Shimachu - Now Things Slow Down  




US




HUYA Inc (HUYA US) 
Gaming
7.2
Merger



Huya – Generous for Douyu and the New Global Streaming Landscape Gets Interesting



PNM Resources (PNM US) 
Energy
4.3
Tender Offer
10%


PNM Resources - Iberdrola: Friendly Acquisition



Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) 
Events
0.1
Prelim Proposal
38.9%


Wanda Sports (WSG US): Preliminary Proposal From Dalian Wanda



Europe/UK




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 
Security Service
0.4
Cash Offer
30%


G4S - GardaWorld: Lowball Offer



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
Telco
1.0
Non-binding Offer
17%


TalkTalk - Toscafund: Preliminary &amp; Non-Binding Proposal





Source: Smartkarma Insights


The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was ~25% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (121 all-in) is ~32%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was 31.5%.



The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in October of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

15-Oct: FRB approval 20-Oct: Scheme Meeting set for the 20 Nov




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

22-Oct: Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"
23-Oct: Cardinal announced that shareholders holding 19.38% of shares out intend to accept Shandong's unconditional off-market Offer by 30 October - provided there be no superior proposal, or is Shandong extends its Offer (currently expected to close on the 30 October, unless extended). 23-Oct: Nordgold has now lodged an application with the Takeovers Panel concerning “the clear and unambiguous interpretation” of Shandong’s Last and Final Statement.
27-Oct: Nordgold has withdrawn its Takeovers Panel application. But stands its ground that Shandong's statements are materially misleading.




Citadel Group (CGL AU) 

29-Oct: Scheme Meeting set for the 1 December.




Cromwell Property (CMW AU) 

No October update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

13-Oct: DWS will not declare or pay any permitted special dividend. The Scheme payment will be fixed at A$1.20/share.




OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) 

13-Oct: OptiComm: Aware Super's Superior Optics 15-Oct: OptiComm: Uniti Sees Aware And Raises




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

6-Oct: Mittleman bumps stake to 10.09% (from 8.50% previously) and according to media reports, opposes BGH's Scheme.    7-Oct: Village Roadshow (VRL AU) said it would proceed with the Scheme - and is engaged in correspondence with Mittleman.   12-Oct: The Independent Expert concludes the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable. 










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK) 
5-Oct: Remarkably - the judge has declined to sanction the Scheme.
Here's the judgment. Para 66 mentions the headcount test. I have no clue why - HK-incorporated companies do not adhere to a headcount test. Baffling.
12-Oct: Allied Properties (56 HK): Amateur Hour 19-Oct: Allied has appealed the High Court judgment. The Appeal will be heard on Monday, 23rd November 2020 at 10:00 a.m.



AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) 
4-Oct: SPA is done - conditional MGO triggered. Composite doc to be dispatched on or before 15 October.  15-Oct: Composite doc has been delayed until the 2 November from the 15 October. This was to be expected. I had the 30 October in my initial timetable. 



Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
5-Oct: In its monthly update, the company announces that there is no update.



Car Inc (699 HK) 
No October update



CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) 
30-Sep: The deal is off.



Changshouhua Food (1006 HK) 
26-Oct: Scheme doc out - court meeting to be held on the 19 November. Cheques on (or before) the 14 December. IFA (Somerley) considers the Offer fair &amp; reasonable. 



China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 
16-Oct: The despatch of the Composite Doc has been pushed out to the 18 January 2021. A significant delay. This may not complete until early 2Q21.  23-Oct: I see 12.11% of shares out have moved into Halycon, according to CCASS. That is Green Farmlands stake, part of the Offeror's.  27-Oct: 27.99% of shares out have given irrevocables to accept the MGO. That will take the Offeror's stake to 71.74%, at a minimum, under the MGO.



Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) 
7-Oct: The Composite Doc has been delayed until the 23 Oct (on or before) from the 8 October. Such a delay is pretty standard.   23-Oct: The Composite Doc for Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) has been despatched. The first close is the 23 Nov.



Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) 

22-Oct: Composite doc dispatched for Get Nice Holdings (64 HK). The first close is the 13 November. 




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

12-Oct: Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) announced that Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)'s application with the CSRC for the proposed issuance of HSH H shares is "progressing".




Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) 

8-Oct: Re: regulatory approvals, Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) said Canadain and US regulatory bodies have signed off on the Offer from Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Scheme doc to be despatched on or before the 9 November. 




Macau Legend Development (1680 HK) 

5-Oct: The stake sale completed. The MGO is now triggered. The Composite Doc is expected to be despatched on the 12 October. 12-Oct: The Composite Document has been delayed until the 21 October, from the 12 October. This was expected but is still a full month earlier than what I would have anticipated.   21-Oct: The Composite Document has now been further delayed until the 3 November. Getting closer to my 21 November despatch target. 




Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK) 
23-Oct: Bitauto Holdings (BITA US) shareholders approve the merger plan. The merger is expected to close on or around the 10 November. The Composite Doc for Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK)'s downstream MGO will then be despatched 7 business days later.









India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

25-Oct: Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN): Shareholder Vote Encouraging. Buying Opportunity




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No October update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No October update




J.B. Chemicals &amp; Pharmaceut (JBCP IN) 

No October update




Sequent Scientific (SEQ IN) 

No October update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-Oct: Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 8-Oct: Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 8-Oct: Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters 11-Oct: Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think) 11-Oct: Vedanta (VEDL IN): A Failed Delisting Will Now Pressure The Stock 13-Oct: VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data 21-Oct: Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell?

















Indonesia


Comments 




Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) 

No October update











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No October update



FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) 

22-Oct: FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) has now officially been designated a Security to be Delisted by the TSE. The last day of trading is November 11. Delisting Date is November 12. 22-Oct: Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659)




Hinokiya Holdings (1413 JP) 

No October update



 Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) / Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) 

26-Oct: The Right Trade May Be Hitachi




Keihin Corp (7251 JP) / Showa Corp (7274 JP) 

16-Oct: Honda Tenders Done - Now For The Residuals 28-Oct: The TOPIX exclusions on Showa Corp (7274 JP), Nissin Kogyo (7230 JP), and Keihin Corp (7251 JP) took place after the close. Now it will be the trickle-out until delisting. Delisting will be on 11 November, and the last day of trading will be on the 10th. Effective Date of the Acquisition is the 13th of November. 




Kirindo Holdings (3194 JP) 

16-Oct: In what might be a first that I have seen, Kirindo Holdings (3194 JP) today announced the Record Date for the EGM to be held to squeeze out minorities. That's not unusual. What IS unusual is that it has happened prior to the end of the Tender Offer. The EGM itself will be sometime in December. The date of the EGM may be announced on 19 October.  27-Oct: successful at 69.75%. Now we head to EGM and delisting. 




LIXIL VIVA (3564 JP) 

15 Oct:  Buyback Tender successful.




Mcubs Midcity Investment Cor (3227 JP) 

22-Oct: Unitholders have approved the Deal. Japan Retail Fund Investment (8953 JP) unit holders have also voted in favour of the transaction. 




Nichii Gakkan Co (9792 JP) 

Delisting expected 5 November




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

13-Oct: NTT Docomo: The Three Arbs and the Great Re-Allocation Trade




Ryoyo Electro (8068 JP) 

No October update




Sanyo Chemical Ind (4471 JP) /  Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) 
22-Oct: SanyoChem/Shokubai Deal Cancelled - The Trick Is NOT to Look Inside the Diaper




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No October update
















New Zealand


Comments (with links to announcements)




Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) 

3-Oct: Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) shareholders approve Scheme.  "It is anticipated that the Scheme will be implemented and shareholders will be paid NZ$6 per share on or around 29 October 2020". 
8-Oct: Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) has announced a "shareholder has lodged a Notice of Opposition to the High Court application for the Scheme of Arrangement with Asia Pacific Village Group Limited".
14-Oct: The High Court hearing has been delayed until the 20 October from the 15 October. 
15-Oct:  Metlifecare: Statutory Vacuum
18-Oct: The Panel has given a "no objection" statement. The Court does not have to rely on this statement - but it usually does. This looks (finally) done. 
20-Oct: Metlifecare: Scheme Sanctioned. Potential Bad Precedent Averted











Singapore


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP) 

Now in progress/wind-down mode




Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) 

12-Oct: Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) has announced that the Trust Scheme was sanctioned by the Court yesterday and confirmed that the last trading day of the CCT units will be the 16 October.




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

No October update










Taiwan


Comments 




Boardtek Electronics (5349 TT) 
No October update



Casetek Holdings (5264 TT) 
1-Oct: According to various media sources, shareholders have approved the merger with Pegatron. 








Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No October update










Vietnam


Comments (with links to announcements)




Viglacera Corp (VGC VN) 
No October update










Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No October update









Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No October update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 
No October update



Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles (BME SM) 
No October update



CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
28-Oct: Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No October update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
5-Oct: William Hill - Caesars (Almost) Done Deal, Trading Above Terms






Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: <strong>Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation</strong></p>

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>The growth rate of China game market fell back to 15% YoY in 2Q20 and 3Q20 from 30% in 1Q20, but the growth rate was still higher than before the pandemic.</li>
<li>E-sports and overseas market are more promising.</li>
<li>Foreign game revenue from China stopped shrinking.</li>
</ul>


The growth rate of China game market fell back to 15% YoY in 2Q20 and 3Q20 from 30% in 1Q20, but the growth rate was still higher than before the pandemic.
E-sports and overseas market are more promising.
Foreign game revenue from China stopped shrinking.


Tencent (700 HK): Strong China Game Market in 3Q20

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Seeking the Predictable in the Unpredictable Chinese Market

Predicability may lower investment risk, but is there any among businesses in the highly unpredictable Chinese market? These are a few characters...

Steven Chen

Lufax IPO Trading - Possible FTSE Inclusion Might Help in the Short-Term

Lufax Holdings (LU US) raised around US$2.4bn via its US listing. The company is backed by Ping An (2318 HK). It might go into the FTSE on fast...

Sumeet Singh

(Mostly) Asia M&A: October 2020 Roundup

15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in October with an overall deal size of ~US$31bn. The average premium was ~25% and the YTD average...

David Blennerhassett

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

Tencent (700 HK): Strong China Game Market in 3Q20

The growth rate of China game market in 3Q20 was still higher than before the pandemic. E-sports and overseas market are more promising. Foreign...

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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