Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Investors haven’t lost their enthusiasm for Tencent. The put/call ratio is a long way from indicating panic.</li>
<li>Implied vols have risen but are far from panic levels with 1M implied at it's 39th percentile over the past year and 15th percentile since 2001.</li>
<li>Skew has risen significantly for out-of-the-money Puts as spot has moved into a range where there is higher Put positioning vs Call positioning. </li>
</ul>


Investors haven’t lost their enthusiasm for Tencent. The put/call ratio is a long way from indicating panic.
Implied vols have risen but are far from panic levels with 1M implied at it's 39th percentile over the past year and 15th percentile since 2001.
Skew has risen significantly for out-of-the-money Puts as spot has moved into a range where there is higher Put positioning vs Call positioning. 


EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tencent</strong> (700 HK)</a> shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.</li>
<li>Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.</li>
<li>A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.
Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.
A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Tencent (700 HK) .


EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Tencent is due to release Q1 FY24 results today. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST</li><li>In this note, we unpack what is priced and how Tencent has performed relative to constituents in the HSTECH index since our last update (29 April).</li><li>We also provide an update on how the discounts of Naspers and Prosus have traded.</li></ul>

Tencent is due to release Q1 FY24 results today. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SASTIn this note, we unpack what is priced and how Tencent has performed relative to constituents in the HSTECH index since our last update (29 April).We also provide an update on how the discounts of Naspers and Prosus have traded.

Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.</li>
<li>The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company's share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.</li>
<li>We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.
The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company's share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.
We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.


Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One year ago, we published a note valuing Wechat Channels at US$29 billion by applying 25xPE to RMB8 billion net profit out of RMB37 billion revenue by 2024.</li>
<li>Fast forward to today, the platform’s priority has been further elevated by Tencent management in its attempt to pursue high quality growth.</li>
<li>We review our thesis on Wechat Channels based on recent channel checks and now believe that the platform could represent ~35% of Tencent's total incremental profit from 2024 to 2026. </li>
</ul>


One year ago, we published a note valuing Wechat Channels at US$29 billion by applying 25xPE to RMB8 billion net profit out of RMB37 billion revenue by 2024.
Fast forward to today, the platform’s priority has been further elevated by Tencent management in its attempt to pursue high quality growth.
We review our thesis on Wechat Channels based on recent channel checks and now believe that the platform could represent ~35% of Tencent's total incremental profit from 2024 to 2026. 


Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

Investors remain optimistic about Tencent as put/call ratio shows no signs of panic. Implied vols have increased but are still below panic levels,...

John Ley

EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

Tencent shares drop 7.3% after being labeled a Chinese Military Company by the US. This option strategy positions traders for further price swings.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced

Tencent is due to release Q1 FY24 results today. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST. In this note, we unpack what is priced and how...

DMA

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

Tencent's 4Q revenue and OP grew YoY, but below consensus estimates. Games biz declined again after seeing growth in the last 3-quarters. New high...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

We revisit our investment thesis about Wechat Channels and see significantly higher-than-expected profitability. We expect the product to generate...

Eric Chen

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EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

​Investors remain optimistic about Tencent as put/call ratio shows no signs of panic. Implied vols have increased but are still below panic levels,...

John Ley

EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

​Tencent shares drop 7.3% after being labeled a Chinese Military Company by the US. This option strategy positions traders for further price swings.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent Q1 FY24 Results Due, a Look into What Is Priced

Tencent is due to release Q1 FY24 results today. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST. In this note, we unpack what is priced and how...

DMA

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

​Tencent's 4Q revenue and OP grew YoY, but below consensus estimates. Games biz declined again after seeing growth in the last 3-quarters. New high...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

We revisit our investment thesis about Wechat Channels and see significantly higher-than-expected profitability. We expect the product to generate...

Eric Chen

Investors remain optimistic about Tencent as put/call ratio shows no signs of panic. Implied vols have increased but are still below panic levels,...

Tencent shares drop 7.3% after being labeled a Chinese Military Company by the US. This option strategy positions traders for further price swings.

Tencent's 4Q revenue and OP grew YoY, but below consensus estimates. Games biz declined again after seeing growth in the last 3-quarters. New high...