Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.</li>
</ul>


Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.


Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.</li>
<li>3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.
3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.</li>
<li>This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and "trade frameworks."</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.
Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.
This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and "trade frameworks."


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.</li>
<li>
Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.

Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.


Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

<ul>
<li>
Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has declined from recent peaks, aligning near its 3-year median, indicating a potential stabilization in market expectations.</li>
<li>
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The term structure is largely flat with a slight uplift due to the upcoming earnings on 14 May 2025. A pronounced volatility smile favors spreads.</li>
<li>
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in near-term (April, May) and quarterly expiries, with call open interest slightly outweighing puts (48-60%).</li>
</ul>



Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for Tencent (700 HK) has declined from recent peaks, aligning near its 3-year median, indicating a potential stabilization in market expectations.

Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The term structure is largely flat with a slight uplift due to the upcoming earnings on 14 May 2025. A pronounced volatility smile favors spreads.

Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in near-term (April, May) and quarterly expiries, with call open interest slightly outweighing puts (48-60%).


Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

SOUTHBOUND flows still slow. Gross SOUTHBOUND trading is still moving at HK$80-100bn a day which is higher than the last years but half the peaks...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Volume was weaker in the 3-day week ahead of a long weekend. Nothing stood out except selling of tech and consumer discretionary (BYD and BABA). We...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies show a bullish bias, with Call/Put Spreads dominating and Lottery Trades making an appearance.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading

Implied volatility for Tencent stabilizes, term structure flat with upcoming earnings, call open interest slightly outweighs puts.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

SOUTHBOUND flows still slow. Gross SOUTHBOUND trading is still moving at HK$80-100bn a day which is higher than the last years but half the peaks...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Volume was weaker in the 3-day week ahead of a long weekend. Nothing stood out except selling of tech and consumer discretionary (BYD and BABA). We...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Tencent's multi-leg option strategies show a bullish bias, with Call/Put Spreads dominating and Lottery Trades making an appearance.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading

​Implied volatility for Tencent stabilizes, term structure flat with upcoming earnings, call open interest slightly outweighs puts.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies show a bullish bias, with Call/Put Spreads dominating and Lottery Trades making an appearance.

Implied volatility for Tencent stabilizes, term structure flat with upcoming earnings, call open interest slightly outweighs puts.