Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was again the top buy and EV names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.</li>
<li>I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was again the top buy and EV names XPeng (9868 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.
I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active EM funds average +26.0% YTD, their strongest year since 2017, though still underperforming the benchmark by -1.8%. Fewer than 40% have outpaced the iShares MSCI EM ETF.</li>
<li>Style and regional positioning drove dispersion. Value managers and South Korea exposure supported gains, while Aggressive Growth styles and India-heavy allocations weighed on returns. High Active Share strategies also trailed.</li>
<li>Active EM outperformance remains consistent long-term. Active funds have beaten the benchmark in 14 of the past 22 years, with the ETF often ranking near the peer group median.</li>
</ul>


Active EM funds average +26.0% YTD, their strongest year since 2017, though still underperforming the benchmark by -1.8%. Fewer than 40% have outpaced the iShares MSCI EM ETF.
Style and regional positioning drove dispersion. Value managers and South Korea exposure supported gains, while Aggressive Growth styles and India-heavy allocations weighed on returns. High Active Share strategies also trailed.
Active EM outperformance remains consistent long-term. Active funds have beaten the benchmark in 14 of the past 22 years, with the ETF often ranking near the peer group median.


EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.</li>
<li>Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.</li>
<li>Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.</li>
</ul>


Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.


Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Baidu announced that the company has seen a rapid uptake in its Robotaxi business on the mainland.</li>
<li>Baidu is at the forefront of the industry globally with its Fully Self Driving taxis available in more than 10 major cities in China.</li>
<li>Baidu's autonomous taxi unit, Apollo Go, has over 100 million kilometers of high-level autonomous safety driving mileage and holds over 5,000 autonomous driving patents.</li>
</ul>


Baidu announced that the company has seen a rapid uptake in its Robotaxi business on the mainland.
Baidu is at the forefront of the industry globally with its Fully Self Driving taxis available in more than 10 major cities in China.
Baidu's autonomous taxi unit, Apollo Go, has over 100 million kilometers of high-level autonomous safety driving mileage and holds over 5,000 autonomous driving patents.


CHINA: Fasten Your Seat Belts! BAIDU Accelerates in the Fast Growing Robotaxi Industry.

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs. </li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs. 


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Tencent (700 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes were +20%wow, Net buying continued though tech flows slower. Markets up. China first retaliation in trade is...

Travis Lundy

EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?

Active EM funds are up 26.0% YTD—on track for their best year since 2017. Style, geography, and benchmark-independence remain key drivers of...

Steven Holden

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CHINA: Fasten Your Seat Belts! BAIDU Accelerates in the Fast Growing Robotaxi Industry.

Baidu shares begin to re-rate as its new AI modil outperformed Google Gemini and Open AI's GPT-5. The new version of Ernie AI reasoning model also...

David Mudd

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

Quantitative analysis identifies eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes were +20%wow, Net buying continued though tech flows slower. Markets up. China first retaliation in trade is...

Travis Lundy

EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?

Active EM funds are up 26.0% YTD—on track for their best year since 2017. Style, geography, and benchmark-independence remain key drivers of...

Steven Holden

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

​Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CHINA: Fasten Your Seat Belts! BAIDU Accelerates in the Fast Growing Robotaxi Industry.

Baidu shares begin to re-rate as its new AI modil outperformed Google Gemini and Open AI's GPT-5. The new version of Ernie AI reasoning model also...

David Mudd

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

​Quantitative analysis identifies eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Quantitative analysis identifies eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.