Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Aug): Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on BIDU, XPENG, NIO, XIAOMI, JD.COM.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on BIDU, XPENG, NIO, XIAOMI, JD.COM.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Jul): BIDU, XPENG, NIO, XIAOMI, JD.COM

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q26 beat consensus driven by advertising, gaming, and cloud-related AI demand. AI is already lifting monetisation, engagement, and margins across the ecosystem.</li>
<li>Tencent increasingly resembles an integrated “AI operating system” sitting on top of China’s largest social, payments, gaming, and enterprise ecosystem. The market still underestimates this strategic positioning.</li>
<li>Consensus fair value of HKD724/share implies +56% UPSIDE potential from current share price. Risk reward is compelling, and we suggest to ACCUMULATE </li>
</ul>


1Q26 beat consensus driven by advertising, gaming, and cloud-related AI demand. AI is already lifting monetisation, engagement, and margins across the ecosystem.
Tencent increasingly resembles an integrated “AI operating system” sitting on top of China’s largest social, payments, gaming, and enterprise ecosystem. The market still underestimates this strategic positioning.
Consensus fair value of HKD724/share implies +56% UPSIDE potential from current share price. Risk reward is compelling, and we suggest to ACCUMULATE 


Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

China

Tencent Music Entertainment Group is China's leading online music and audio entertainment platform, offering music streaming, online karaoke, and music-centric live streaming services through popular apps like QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, and WeSing. The company also provides long-form audio content and generates revenue from music subscriptions, advertising, and artist merchandise. It was formally established in July 2016 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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Tencent Music Entertainment (1698 HK)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Aug): Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Jul): BIDU, XPENG, NIO, XIAOMI, JD.COM

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in BIDU (9888 HK), XPENG (9868 HK), NIO (9866 HK), XIAOMI (1810 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

Tencent's strong performance driven by AI, with potential for 56% upside in share price. Market underestimates strategic positioning as an...

Mo Aziz

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Aug): Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Kuaishou, XPENG, XIAOMI, BIDU, LI AUTO, SMIC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Jul): BIDU, XPENG, NIO, XIAOMI, JD.COM

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in BIDU (9888 HK), XPENG (9868 HK), NIO (9866 HK), XIAOMI (1810 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

​Tencent's strong performance driven by AI, with potential for 56% upside in share price. Market underestimates strategic positioning as an...

Mo Aziz

Tencent's strong performance driven by AI, with potential for 56% upside in share price. Market underestimates strategic positioning as an...