Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The PCAOB has not, despite a cooperation agreement with the CSRC signed in 2013, been able to conduct on-site investigations of a HK or mainland-based company since 2010.</li>
<li>On Friday, the CSRC published a new Strengthening Confidentiality and File Management Related to Overseas Issuance to replace 2009 rules. </li>
<li>Importantly, the revised Provisions deletes the stipulation that “on-site inspections shall be dominated by domestic regulators or depend on the conclusions of inspections by domestic regulators.” Will it be enough?</li>
</ul>


The PCAOB has not, despite a cooperation agreement with the CSRC signed in 2013, been able to conduct on-site investigations of a HK or mainland-based company since 2010.
On Friday, the CSRC published a new Strengthening Confidentiality and File Management Related to Overseas Issuance to replace 2009 rules. 
Importantly, the revised Provisions deletes the stipulation that “on-site inspections shall be dominated by domestic regulators or depend on the conclusions of inspections by domestic regulators.” Will it be enough?


New CSRC "Provisions" Take a Step Towards Meeting PCAOB Requirements

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TME reported in-line results with continued divergence in its two major businesses: Online music increased by 48% YoY, while social entertainment declined by 25% YoY.</li>
<li>We expect these trends to continue, with online music benefiting from price increases and social entertainment facing ongoing challenges from competition, regulations, and macro influences.</li>
<li>Recently, Douyin has been advancing the integration of its large entertainment division. We anticipate that this will pose pressure on TME. Remain SELL and cut TP to US$ 5.7.</li>
</ul>


TME reported in-line results with continued divergence in its two major businesses: Online music increased by 48% YoY, while social entertainment declined by 25% YoY.
We expect these trends to continue, with online music benefiting from price increases and social entertainment facing ongoing challenges from competition, regulations, and macro influences.
Recently, Douyin has been advancing the integration of its large entertainment division. We anticipate that this will pose pressure on TME. Remain SELL and cut TP to US$ 5.7.


[Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$5.7) TP Change]: Competition Remains the Biggest Downward Factor

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

<ul>
<li>We expect the 2Q23 online music revenue growth to be 34.4% YoY, driven by more promotions to drive up users’ retentions;</li>
<li>We anticipate the 2Q23 social entertainment growth rate to be (12.9%) YoY, due to intense competition and strengthened regulatory in live streaming. </li>
<li>We expect TME's 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (1.8%)/ (3.9%) vs cons. We maintain SELL because of continuous pressure from Bytedance’s Soda Music, Wechat Video Account and Kuaishou.</li>
</ul>


We expect the 2Q23 online music revenue growth to be 34.4% YoY, driven by more promotions to drive up users’ retentions;
We anticipate the 2Q23 social entertainment growth rate to be (12.9%) YoY, due to intense competition and strengthened regulatory in live streaming. 
We expect TME's 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (1.8%)/ (3.9%) vs cons. We maintain SELL because of continuous pressure from Bytedance’s Soda Music, Wechat Video Account and Kuaishou.


[Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$6) Preview]: Competition Is Still a Concern, Maintain SELL

China

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

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Tencent Music (TME US)

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

New CSRC "Provisions" Take a Step Towards Meeting PCAOB Requirements

CSRC has published new Provisions putting the onus of info management on companies, making it easier for the PCAOB to conduct on-site audits. It...

Travis Lundy