Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.
The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.
Huge inflows to CSI 300 Index trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

<ul>
<li>With over 40% of the review period complete, there could be 15 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be two changes before that if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-f-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14300:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;F Co Ltd (066970 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hlb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16969:1" rel="noopener">HLB Inc (028300 KS)</a> complete their transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> since the start of the review period. The ban on short selling could lead to another leg up.</li>
</ul>


With over 40% of the review period complete, there could be 15 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
There could be two changes before that if L&amp;F Co Ltd (066970 KS) and HLB Inc (028300 KS) complete their transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index since the start of the review period. The ban on short selling could lead to another leg up.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Soaring; Short Sell Ban Not Helping

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Hyundai Construction Equipment / Event-Driven

Hyundai Construction Equipment (267270 KS)

<h2>New benchmarks for domestic equity</h2><p>The National Pension Service has disclosed the following reform plan about the direct and consignment management benchmarks for domestic stocks.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/338/original/1.png?1627188167" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220338"></figure></section><ul>
<li><strong>As for the direct management, the National Pension Plan plans to internally develop and use a new index called NPS-KR250 by adding additional 50 KOSPI stocks to the KOSPI 200 constituents.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Regarding the consignment management, the KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 stocks are currently used as benchmarks. This benchmark is reorganized into KOSPI + KOSDAQ 150, with 50 KOSDAQ stocks added.</strong></li>
</ul><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 248.688px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Benchmark"}'>Benchmark</td>
<td style="width: 170.792px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Previous"}'>Previous</td>
<td style="width: 326.521px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"New"}'>New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 248.688px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Internal (direct) management"}' data-sheets-formula="='KOSPI 200 Mirroring'!R[0]C[0]"><strong>Direct management</strong></td>
<td style="width: 170.792px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200"}'>KOSPI 200</td>
<td style="width: 326.521px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 + KOSPI 50"}'><div><div><strong>NPS-KR250 = KOSPI 200 + additional 50 KOSPI stocks</strong></div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 248.688px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Global Equity"}'><strong>Consignment management</strong></td>
<td style="width: 170.792px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100"}'>KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100</td>
<td style="width: 326.521px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI + KOSDAQ 150"}'><div><div><strong>KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 + additional 50 KOSDAQ stocks</strong></div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" style="width: 746px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: NPS"}'>Source: NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>NPS size in the local stock market</h2><p>As of the end of April 2021, the National Pension Service has ₩883.6T in assets under management, of which ₩178T is invested in domestic stocks. Considering that the market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets is currently around ₩2,800T, the national pension account for 6% of the Korean stock market.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="150">
<col width="80">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Asset allocation status"}'>Asset allocation status as of the end-April, 2021</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic Equity"}'><strong>Domestic Equity</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":178014.6}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'><strong>₩178.1T</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Global Equity"}'>Global Equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":222407.5}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩222.4T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic fixed income"}'>Domestic fixed income</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":340524.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩340.5T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Global fixed income"}'>Global fixed income</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":48826.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩48.8T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Alternatives"}'>Alternatives</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 382px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":92768.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B","3":1}'>₩92.8T</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 364px;">Source: NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The proportion of local equity is 20.17%, down slightly from the end of last year, but still far exceeding the target of 16.80% this year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/339/original/image_74411821721627188510268.png?1627188511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220339"></figure><h2>Direct vs. consignment for local equity</h2><p>As of the end of April this year, 52.03% of the funds invested in domestic stocks are direct management, then divided into active (19.43%) and passive (32.60%). The proportion of consignment management is 47.97%, and all of it is operated as active.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Direct vs. consignment for local equity"}'>Direct vs. consignment for local equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2019 yearend"}'>2019 yearend</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'>Weight</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2020 yearend"}'>2020 yearend</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'>Weight</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"April-end, 2021"}'><strong>April-end, 2021</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'><strong>Weight</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Direct management"}'>Direct management</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71.61210000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩71.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">55.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":93.37660000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩93.4T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">52.95%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":92.6208}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩92.6T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>52.03%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Active"}'>- Active</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":26.9769}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩27.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.20397795151753445}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">20.40%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35.0249}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩35.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.19824502419133916}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">19.82%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":34.58823678}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩34.6T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1943}'><strong>19.43%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Passive"}'>- Passive</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44.6352}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩44.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3374960303658113}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">33.75%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":58.351699999999994}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩58.4T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3302774362840654}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">33.03%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":58.032759600000006}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩58.0T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.326}'><strong>32.60%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Consignment management"}'>Consignment management</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60.6419}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩60.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">45.85%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":83.2982}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩83.3T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">47.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":85.3938}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩85.4T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>47.97%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Active"}'>- Active</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60.6419}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩60.6T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.45852601811665433}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">45.85%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":83.2982}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩83.3T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4714775395245955}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">47.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":85.3938}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩85.4T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4797011031679424}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C6"><strong>47.97%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Passive"}'>- Passive</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩0.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C2">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩0.0T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C4">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩0.0T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R8C6"><strong>0.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total domestic Equity"}'>Total domestic equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":132.254}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩132.3T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])">100.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":176.67479999999998}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'>₩176.7T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])">100.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":178.0146}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0T","3":1}'><strong>₩178.0T</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.0000011031679423}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])"><strong>100.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: NPS"}'>Source: NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The passively operated funds (32.60% of the total funds allocated to the domestic equity) are about ₩58T, and the benchmark is KOSPI 200. But not all amounts mechanically track the KOSPI 200. NPS employs various enhanced passive strategies, such as dividends, active quant, and factor model-based, in addition to conventional passive operations. To this end, NPS has developed and used various indices on its own since two years ago.</p>

New benchmarks for domestic equityThe National Pension Service has disclosed the following reform plan about the direct and consignment management benchmarks for domestic stocks.
As for the direct management, the National Pension Plan plans to internally develop and use a new index called NPS-KR250 by adding additional 50 KOSPI stocks to the KOSPI 200 constituents.
Regarding the consignment management, the KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 stocks are currently used as benchmarks. This benchmark is reorganized into KOSPI + KOSDAQ 150, with 50 KOSDAQ stocks added.








Benchmark
Previous
New


Direct management
KOSPI 200
NPS-KR250 = KOSPI 200 + additional 50 KOSPI stocks


Consignment management
KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100
KOSPI + KOSDAQ 100 + additional 50 KOSDAQ stocks

Source: NPS

NPS size in the local stock marketAs of the end of April 2021, the National Pension Service has ₩883.6T in assets under management, of which ₩178T is invested in domestic stocks. Considering that the market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets is currently around ₩2,800T, the national pension account for 6% of the Korean stock market.





Asset allocation status as of the end-April, 2021

Domestic Equity
₩178.1T


Global Equity
₩222.4T


Domestic fixed income
₩340.5T


Global fixed income
₩48.8T


Alternatives
₩92.8T

Source: NPS

The proportion of local equity is 20.17%, down slightly from the end of last year, but still far exceeding the target of 16.80% this year.Direct vs. consignment for local equityAs of the end of April this year, 52.03% of the funds invested in domestic stocks are direct management, then divided into active (19.43%) and passive (32.60%). The proportion of consignment management is 47.97%, and all of it is operated as active.











Direct vs. consignment for local equity
2019 yearend
Weight
2020 yearend
Weight
April-end, 2021
Weight


Direct management
₩71.6T
55.15%
₩93.4T
52.95%
₩92.6T
52.03%


- Active
₩27.0T
20.40%
₩35.0T
19.82%
₩34.6T
19.43%


- Passive
₩44.6T
33.75%
₩58.4T
33.03%
₩58.0T
32.60%


Consignment management
₩60.6T
45.85%
₩83.3T
47.15%
₩85.4T
47.97%


- Active
₩60.6T
45.85%
₩83.3T
47.15%
₩85.4T
47.97%


- Passive
₩0.0T
0.00%
₩0.0T
0.00%
₩0.0T
0.00%


Total domestic equity
₩132.3T
100.00%
₩176.7T
100.00%
₩178.0T
100.00%

Source: NPS

The passively operated funds (32.60% of the total funds allocated to the domestic equity) are about ₩58T, and the benchmark is KOSPI 200. But not all amounts mechanically track the KOSPI 200. NPS employs various enhanced passive strategies, such as dividends, active quant, and factor model-based, in addition to conventional passive operations. To this end, NPS has developed and used various indices on its own since two years ago.

NPS New Benchmarks for Local Stocks: NPS-KR250 (Direct) & KOSPI+KOSDAQ 150 (Consignment)

Equity Capital Markets


Below is the regulatory filing for the APTC Co Ltd (089970 KS) IPO.
Link: https://dart.fss.or.kr/dsaf001/main.do?rcpNo=20180802000306
For more details about the process of this IPO, please jump to the DETAIL section of this insight.
Valuation in IPO bookThe following 4 companies, Applied Materials (AMAT US), Lam Research (LRCX US), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and Orbotech (ORBK US), are the valuation peers. No local peer was chosen since APTC is virtually the only local manufacturer in its field. The avg. PER based on these 4 overseas valuation peers' last 12M earnings is 16.3x.



Peer valuation
Applied Materials (AMAT US)
Lam Research (LRCX US)
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)
Orbotech (ORBK US)


Currency
USD
USD
JPY
USD


Shares outstanding
1,008,047,762
164,045,205
165,210,911
48,506,282


Reference share price
US$46.13
US$173.86
¥18,115
US$62.7


Last 12M earnings
US$3,171mil
US$1,886mil
¥204mil
US$148mil


Fiscal year
Oct
June
Mar
Dec


Last 12M earnings period
2017.05 ~ 2018.04
2017.04 ~ 2018.03
2017.04 ~ 2018.03
2017.04 ~ 2018.03


PER
14.7x
15.1x
14.6x
20.6x


Avg. PER
16.3x

Source: DART

Below shows how the banker arrived at ₩17,834 as APTC's intrinsic price per share. The banker simply annualizes FY1Q18 earnings by multiplying it by 4. This way, they get an EPS of ₩1,069 and apply the above 16.3x PER to arrive at ₩17,834.



APTC Co Ltd (089970 KS) valuation

FY1Q18 earnings
₩6,498mil
A


FY2018 projected full year earnings (simply annualized based on 1Q18 earnings)
₩25,944mil 
B = A × 4


Total shares (including stock options - 611,000 shares)
24,305,595
C


EPS
₩1,069
D = B / C


PER
16.3x
E


Price per share
₩17,834
F = D × E

Source: DART

The banker then comes up with a 25.22 - 33.85% discount. So, the indicative price band is set at ₩11,500 - 13,000.


Indicative price band

Target price per share
₩17,834


Discount
25.22 - 33.85%


Indicative price band
₩11,500 - 13,000

Source: DART

Valuation studyAPTC is a typical pure play tech company which you can easily find in the Korean tech industry scene. It develops an etch system. Currently, it supplies this etch system almost solely for SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS)'s memory chip production. What is an etch system? Its main role is to shape the thin film into a desired patterns using chemicals or gases. It is widely agreed that etching process is one the three most critical processes in semiconductor production. The other two are photolithography process and deposition process. ASML Holding NV (ASML NA) has a near monopoly status in photolithography. As for deposition, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron have a powerful presence. As for etch, LAM Research and ASML have an unparalleled presence. Korea's two memory chip giants, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix, have long been making a lot of efforts to localize some of these critical processes. So far, they have achieved some successes. ASML still maintains a near monopoly status in the field of photolithography; however, as for deposition, Wonik Ips (240810 KS), Tes Co Ltd (095610 KS), Eugene Technology (084370 KS) and Jusung Engineering (036930 KS) have made some successes in localization. In the case of etch, APTC and SEMES (privately-held, Samsung Electronics' subsidiary) are the leading local players.

Dominant players in each of the three most critical processes
Global leaders
Local players


1. Photolithography
ASML (near monopoly) 
None


2. Deposition
Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron

Wonik Ips (240810 KS), Tes Co Ltd (095610 KS), Eugene Technology (084370 KS) and Jusung Engineering (036930 KS)



3. Etch
LAM Research, ASML

APTC Co Ltd (089970 KS) and SEMES (unlisted - Samsung Elec subsidiary)

Source: Sanghyun Park
In the field of etch, we Korea have two leading local players, APTC and SEMES. It's like this. Samsung Electronics has SEMES and SK Hynix has APTC although unlike SamE, SK Hynix has no equity investment. This means both good and bad for APTC. A good thing is APTC has a very reliable client of its main product. But this also means APTC's super heavy dependence on a single client (SK Hynix) may scare a lot of potential investors because it'd be hard to smooth out income fluctuations. In fact, this concern is very clearly shown in the company's sales fluctuation over the years. APTC developed a 200mm etch system many years ago for SK Hynix, but ever since SK Hynix moved onto 300mm, APTC was again pushed into a financially crunch mode to develop a 300mm etch system up until 2016 when it finally succeeded the development of a 300mm etch system. With its new 300mm etch system, APTC has been turning out a decent profit now. Its 1Q18 OPM reached 38.60% and its first quarter sales already reached nearly half of the last year sales.



(₩ mil)
2015

2016
2017
1Q18


Sales
4,400
37,851
41,122
20,289


OP
-1,753
9,390
12,690
7,832


OPM
-39.84%
24.81%
30.86%
38.60%


EBIT
-2,114
9,457
12,807
7,906


EBIT margin
-48.05%
24.98%
31.14%
38.97%

Source: DART

Then, how would this good and bad thing situation be translated into valuation? Well, this depends on two things. First is China's AMEC and second is 3D NAND. What am I talking about? Well, as long as APTC remains good enough (technologically and price wise) for Hynix, there won't be any reason for Hynix to ditch APTC. This is very simple. But in reality, things do not look that simple. It has been locally said and reported that Hynix is still feeling the need to use the etch system made and supplied by China's AMEC which is another low-cost but highly competitive (technologically) etch system producer. Hynix' initial plan was to use both APTC and AMEC. But the main reason why APTC got much more orders lately from Hynix was because Hynix began to worry about possible technology leakage to its memory chip competitors in China through AMEC. That is, trust issue is making Hynix stay away from AMEC for now. But the question is how long this trust issue will last with AMEC. This is where the second factor (3D NAND) comes in. APTC is still mainly about DRAM. As we all know, Hynix' strategic focus is being placed on 3D NAND, and Hynix has favored AMEC over APTC for 3D NAND. APTC recently began to supply an etch system for 3D NAND, but still Hynix is said to be favoring AMEC for 3D NAND. This implies that APTC has a little more work to do to catch up with AMEC technology wise. In other words? Its current situation may not be as good as what its current financial results show.So, many in the local market seem to be thinking that a 16-17x PER multiple is a bit too much. As for this year's earnings, thanks to Hynix' trust issue with AMEC, they seem to be having no problem with the banker's projected ₩25.9bil. But the company's still unstable positioning in Hynix' 3D NAND is a source of great concern which should serve as a valuation discount. So, somewhere around 10-11x seems to be an appropriate number in many local investors' mind. This means we shouldn't be surprised if the price is set at near the floor (₩11,500) or worse.


APTC valuation

FY2018 projected earnings
₩25.9bil




Target PER multiple
Market cap
Price per share


Valuation for each target PER multiple
10.0x
₩259.4bil
₩10,674


11.0x
₩285.4bil
₩11,741


12.0x
₩311.3bil
₩12,809

Source: Sanghyun Park



Sunic System Ltd. / Equity Capital Markets

<p>The most important question for Sunic's IPO bookbuilding that is currently in progress is whether Sunic will receive more orders from LGD for the small-sized OLED panel production lines that will be housed in LGD's P10. Samsung Display won't do business with Sunic any time soon. In addition, those Chinese and Taiwanese display makers are still some years aways from turning to 6GH. Of course, mid capacity equipment is also an important element for Sunic's overall sales performance. But its success with this product segment also highly depends on its success in the large capacity equipment market since this allows Sunic to gain further trust even from mid capacity equipment buyers. So once again, the whole focus of this IPO bookbuilding is whether Sunic can get orders from LGD for P10 and if so how many.</p>

The most important question for Sunic's IPO bookbuilding that is currently in progress is whether Sunic will receive more orders from LGD for the small-sized OLED panel production lines that will be housed in LGD's P10. Samsung Display won't do business with Sunic any time soon. In addition, those Chinese and Taiwanese display makers are still some years aways from turning to 6GH. Of course, mid capacity equipment is also an important element for Sunic's overall sales performance. But its success with this product segment also highly depends on its success in the large capacity equipment market since this allows Sunic to gain further trust even from mid capacity equipment buyers. So once again, the whole focus of this IPO bookbuilding is whether Sunic can get orders from LGD for P10 and if so how many.

Sunic System IPO Part 2 - Key Considerations for Bookbuilding

South Korea

TES Co., Ltd is a semiconductor front end processing equipment manufacturer. The Company manufactures chemical vapor deposition (CVD) systems for wafer fabrication, which include plasma-enhanced chemical vapor disposition (PE-CVD) for solar cell, and metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MO-CVD) for LED.

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