Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>2025 has been a tumultuous year for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk's role in the US government has damaged the brand.</li>
<li>
Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.
</li>
<li>Despite rising competition from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and others, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>  remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


2025 has been a tumultuous year for Tesla (TSLA US), the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk's role in the US government has damaged the brand.

Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.

Despite rising competition from BYD (1211 HK) and others, Tesla (TSLA US)  remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.


TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk's Replacement

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term opportunities.</li><li>Despite declines in sales, operating income, and profit margins compared to the previous year, Tesla's stock surged 5.4%, largely because investors had anticipated weak results after a 13% year-over-year drop in deliveries.</li><li>Critical to the stock's resilience was the reaffirmation that Tesla’s timeline for launching a lower-priced vehicle remains intact, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2025.</li></ul>

Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term opportunities.Despite declines in sales, operating income, and profit margins compared to the previous year, Tesla's stock surged 5.4%, largely because investors had anticipated weak results after a 13% year-over-year drop in deliveries.Critical to the stock's resilience was the reaffirmation that Tesla’s timeline for launching a lower-priced vehicle remains intact, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2025.

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. </li>
<li>Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.</li>
<li>Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. </li>
</ul>


A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 


TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

<ul><li>Tesla is facing one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory.</li><li>In just the past few weeks, the electric vehicle giant reported its worst quarterly deliveries since 2022, saw its stock fall over 44% from its December peak, and lost one of its top software executives.</li><li>Tesla’s Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries came in significantly below expectations at 336,681 units, triggering a wave of analyst downgrades, with JPMorgan citing “unprecedented brand damage” as a key factor.</li></ul>

Tesla is facing one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory.In just the past few weeks, the electric vehicle giant reported its worst quarterly deliveries since 2022, saw its stock fall over 44% from its December peak, and lost one of its top software executives.Tesla’s Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries came in significantly below expectations at 336,681 units, triggering a wave of analyst downgrades, with JPMorgan citing “unprecedented brand damage” as a key factor.

Tesla’s Freefall: Why Sales Are Plunging, Executives Are Leaving, and Investors Are Panicking!

<ul>
<li>Politico just published a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/02/trump-musk-leaving-political-liability-00265784" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report saying that Elon Musk is about to Step Back from DOGE</a>, if true, this could impact somehow <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> stock price.</li>
<li>Death threats and the spate vandalism directed at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>'s cars, plus Musk being viewed as a potential political liability by members of the Trump Administration are the drivers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> brand has been heavily damaged by Musk involvement in politics, sales are falling gobally and competitors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> are rising. The stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT. </li>
</ul>


Politico just published a report saying that Elon Musk is about to Step Back from DOGE, if true, this could impact somehow Tesla (TSLA US) stock price.
Death threats and the spate vandalism directed at Tesla (TSLA US)'s cars, plus Musk being viewed as a potential political liability by members of the Trump Administration are the drivers.

Tesla (TSLA US) brand has been heavily damaged by Musk involvement in politics, sales are falling gobally and competitors like BYD (1211 HK) are rising. The stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT. 


TESLA'S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk's Replacement

Tesla's had a tumultuous year so far, struggling sales and a damaged brand from CEO Elon Musk's government involvement, but we see a potential...

Nico Rosti

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term...

Baptista Research

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Analysis of TSLA options reveals distinct patterns in price movements pre- and post-earnings, with notable differences between beats and misses.

John Ley

Tesla’s Freefall: Why Sales Are Plunging, Executives Are Leaving, and Investors Are Panicking!

Tesla is facing one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory. In just the past few weeks, the electric vehicle giant reported its worst...

Baptista Research

TESLA'S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

Elon Musk's potential step back from DOGE could impact Tesla stock price. Competitors like BYD are rising as Tesla sales fall globally.The stock...

Nico Rosti

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk's Replacement

​Tesla's had a tumultuous year so far, struggling sales and a damaged brand from CEO Elon Musk's government involvement, but we see a potential...

Nico Rosti

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term...

Baptista Research

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Analysis of TSLA options reveals distinct patterns in price movements pre- and post-earnings, with notable differences between beats and misses.

John Ley

Tesla’s Freefall: Why Sales Are Plunging, Executives Are Leaving, and Investors Are Panicking!

Tesla is facing one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory. In just the past few weeks, the electric vehicle giant reported its worst...

Baptista Research

TESLA'S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

​Elon Musk's potential step back from DOGE could impact Tesla stock price. Competitors like BYD are rising as Tesla sales fall globally.The stock...

Nico Rosti

Tesla's had a tumultuous year so far, struggling sales and a damaged brand from CEO Elon Musk's government involvement, but we see a potential...

Analysis of TSLA options reveals distinct patterns in price movements pre- and post-earnings, with notable differences between beats and misses.

Elon Musk's potential step back from DOGE could impact Tesla stock price. Competitors like BYD are rising as Tesla sales fall globally.The stock...