Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the next President of the United States). <div class="content-highlight">
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
Overall, we would not claim to know if Trump will enact the Insurrection Act in order to recount the votes next week. It is premature for us to know what will exactly happen. However, we do want to highlight that it is unprecedented to have nearly 25,000 troops to secure Washington DC for the Inauguration day. While the dominant view in the media is that Biden will be inaugurated as the next US President, there is a (very) minority view that Trump could enact the Insurrection Act to have the military intervene and recount the votes in key swing states. 
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In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the next President of the United States). 
Conclusion
Overall, we would not claim to know if Trump will enact the Insurrection Act in order to recount the votes next week. It is premature for us to know what will exactly happen. However, we do want to highlight that it is unprecedented to have nearly 25,000 troops to secure Washington DC for the Inauguration day. While the dominant view in the media is that Biden will be inaugurated as the next US President, there is a (very) minority view that Trump could enact the Insurrection Act to have the military intervene and recount the votes in key swing states. 


Two Contrasting Views of What Could Happen Next Week in the United States on January 20th

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018</li>
<li>This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"</li>
<li>Some in the financial media (i.e. <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/fed-s-taper-talk-directed-at-bitcoin-and-tesla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin</li>
<li>In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  </li>
<li>In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes</li>
<li>As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018
This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"
Some in the financial media (i.e. Bloomberg) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin
In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  
In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes
As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

We see more risks to the NIO story from the information given NIO Day on 9th Jan. Sooner rather than later, NIO's monthly car delivery would be overtaken by Xpeng and Li Auto - and that would be the start point of its share performance weakness.NIO has no new car model this year. This would be a risk to the company's market share, while Tesla Shanghai's Model Y and Xpeng P5 would definitely gain market share. eT7, the first sedan of NIO to be delivered in 1Q2021, is almost twice as expensive as Xpeng P7, with very close performance and looks. This makes eT7 difficult to have big sales volume.Promised solid-state battery with1000km NEDC range is still under R&amp;D and  would not come until 4Q2020. NIO cars NEDC range would remain shorter than its peers for at least another two years.What exactly NAD could do is unclear. Only information about NAD is that the hardware employed would have 7 times TOPs as Tesla's. While Xpeng's navigated autopilot (NGP) is coming in 1Q2021 with great feedback on its trial version.Second generation battery swap station doubled battery capacity, but the overall station network build-up would remain behind original schedule.

We see more risks to the NIO story from the information given NIO Day on 9th Jan. Sooner rather than later, NIO's monthly car delivery would be overtaken by Xpeng and Li Auto - and that would be the start point of its share performance weakness.NIO has no new car model this year. This would be a risk to the company's market share, while Tesla Shanghai's Model Y and Xpeng P5 would definitely gain market share. eT7, the first sedan of NIO to be delivered in 1Q2021, is almost twice as expensive as Xpeng P7, with very close performance and looks. This makes eT7 difficult to have big sales volume.Promised solid-state battery with1000km NEDC range is still under R&amp;D and  would not come until 4Q2020. NIO cars NEDC range would remain shorter than its peers for at least another two years.What exactly NAD could do is unclear. Only information about NAD is that the hardware employed would have 7 times TOPs as Tesla's. While Xpeng's navigated autopilot (NGP) is coming in 1Q2021 with great feedback on its trial version.Second generation battery swap station doubled battery capacity, but the overall station network build-up would remain behind original schedule.

With the start of the delivery of local produced Model Y, sales NIO ES6 and EC6 might decline  in short term, in our view. Model Y's sales prices were announced at Rmb339.9k and above, on 1st Jan 2021, which is lower than NIO's corresponding models, but with better features. Also, Tesla has the best electric control system and battery quality among all the peers based on users' feedback.We also noticed some NIO customers who ordered EC6 were seeking for order cancellation on the same day and switching to Model Y. It would be a tough year for NIO.We suggest to sell NIO

With the start of the delivery of local produced Model Y, sales NIO ES6 and EC6 might decline  in short term, in our view. Model Y's sales prices were announced at Rmb339.9k and above, on 1st Jan 2021, which is lower than NIO's corresponding models, but with better features. Also, Tesla has the best electric control system and battery quality among all the peers based on users' feedback.We also noticed some NIO customers who ordered EC6 were seeking for order cancellation on the same day and switching to Model Y. It would be a tough year for NIO.We suggest to sell NIO

NIO: Will It Survive the Fight with Tesla?

Myoung Shin Industrial Co.,Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

Myoungshin Industrial (009900 KS) has been one of the hottest IPOs in Korea in 2020. It completed its IPO on 7 December at the IPO price of 6,500 won.  The stock price has surged nearly 7x in 11 trading days to 51,800 won as of 21 December. Its market cap has exploded to 2.1 trillion won ($1.9 billion). This surge is mostly driven by retail money and it reflects a retail madness of crowds in terms of FOMO (fear of missing out). Tesla's inclusion date for S&amp;P 500 index is on 21 December. We believe this is a significant date for Tesla as well as many of its suppliers such as Myoungshin Industrial as well as for the entire overall EV value chain. Although we do not claim to foretell how Tesla will perform post this date, we do believe there have been a big chunk of investors who have been positioning to buy Tesla and its related suppliers leading into this S&amp;P 500 index inclusion and selling them after the inclusion. Our high end case for Myoungshin Industrial assumed a net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won (an average of 2020 and 2021) and applied a 12.2x P/E (which is about 33% premium to the average P/E of the comps in 2020). At the current market cap of 2.1 trillion won, Myoungshin Industrial is trading at a 46x P/E using the high end of our net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won. Although Myoungshin Industrial has a solid technology for hot stamping products, is this really that special to warrant this very high valuation multiples? We do not believe so.

Myoungshin Industrial (009900 KS) has been one of the hottest IPOs in Korea in 2020. It completed its IPO on 7 December at the IPO price of 6,500 won.  The stock price has surged nearly 7x in 11 trading days to 51,800 won as of 21 December. Its market cap has exploded to 2.1 trillion won ($1.9 billion). This surge is mostly driven by retail money and it reflects a retail madness of crowds in terms of FOMO (fear of missing out). Tesla's inclusion date for S&amp;P 500 index is on 21 December. We believe this is a significant date for Tesla as well as many of its suppliers such as Myoungshin Industrial as well as for the entire overall EV value chain. Although we do not claim to foretell how Tesla will perform post this date, we do believe there have been a big chunk of investors who have been positioning to buy Tesla and its related suppliers leading into this S&amp;P 500 index inclusion and selling them after the inclusion. Our high end case for Myoungshin Industrial assumed a net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won (an average of 2020 and 2021) and applied a 12.2x P/E (which is about 33% premium to the average P/E of the comps in 2020). At the current market cap of 2.1 trillion won, Myoungshin Industrial is trading at a 46x P/E using the high end of our net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won. Although Myoungshin Industrial has a solid technology for hot stamping products, is this really that special to warrant this very high valuation multiples? We do not believe so. 

Myoungshin Industrial - Best Performing IPO in Korea in 2020 (Retail FOMO Madness of Crowds)

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Two Contrasting Views of What Could Happen Next Week in the United States on January 20th

In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the...

Douglas Kim

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

Talk of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation has surged 3x STDEVs, the most since 2018. Our data suggests this has more to do with the...

Elan Gore

NIO: NIO Day Unveils Downside Risks

We see more risks to the NIO story from the information given NIO Day on 9th Jan. Sooner rather than later, NIO's monthly car delivery would be...

Victoria Li

NIO: Will It Survive the Fight with Tesla?

With the start of the delivery of local produced Model Y, sales NIO ES6 and EC6 might decline in short term, in our view. Model Y's sales prices...

Victoria Li

Myoungshin Industrial - Best Performing IPO in Korea in 2020 (Retail FOMO Madness of Crowds)

Myoungshin Industrial has been the best performing IPO in Korea in 2020, driven by its supplier relationship to Tesla. This surge reflects a major...

Douglas Kim

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