IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. 
NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. 


2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>3Q25 GPM beat with weak 4Q25 sales guidance. NIO’s 3Q25 revenue was in line with our prior forecast while its GPM was about 3.2ppts higher than our projection.</li><li>The beat was probably due to higher margins from the ES6, EC6, ET5 and ET5T.</li><li>SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses combined were about RMB120mn lower than our estimates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q25 GPM beat with weak 4Q25 sales guidance. NIO’s 3Q25 revenue was in line with our prior forecast while its GPM was about 3.2ppts higher than our projection.The beat was probably due to higher margins from the ES6, EC6, ET5 and ET5T.SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses combined were about RMB120mn lower than our estimates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) - Competition Likely Underestimated Despite 3Q Beat

Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc">NIO </a>is a prominent player in China's premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, and focus on user community.</li>
 <li>The company faces significant headwinds, including intense competition in the Chinese EV market, persistent unprofitability, and high cash burn, necessitating reliance on capital markets for funding, as evidenced by a recent US$1 billion equity offering.</li>
 <li>Future success hinges on management's ability to execute on ambitious targets, such as improving gross margins with new models and achieving profitability, a goal they have missed in the past.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
NIO is a prominent player in China's premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, and focus on user community.
  The company faces significant headwinds, including intense competition in the Chinese EV market, persistent unprofitability, and high cash burn, necessitating reliance on capital markets for funding, as evidenced by a recent US$1 billion equity offering.
  Future success hinges on management's ability to execute on ambitious targets, such as improving gross margins with new models and achieving profitability, a goal they have missed in the past.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.</li>
<li>On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.


ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. </li>
<li>The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.</li>
<li>While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. 
The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  


NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

4Q deliveries guidance was below expectations, and the sales momentum is declining. Breakeven targets are likely to be pushed out. The valuation is...

Arun George

NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) - Competition Likely Underestimated Despite 3Q Beat

3Q25 GPM beat with weak 4Q25 sales guidance. NIO’s 3Q25 revenue was in line with our prior forecast while its GPM was about 3.2ppts higher than our...

CMB International

Primer: NIO (NIO US) - Sep 2025

NIO is a prominent player in China's premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service...

αSK

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying...

Arun George

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