IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. 
NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. 


2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again.</li><li>With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates.</li><li>We are of the view that management’s guidance for breakeven in FY26 is too optimistic.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again.With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates.We are of the view that management’s guidance for breakeven in FY26 is too optimistic.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - NIO’s Cost Control Disappoints Us Again

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;</li>
<li>China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;</li>
<li>ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.</li>
</ul>


China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;
China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;
ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.


Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

<ul>
<li>NIO Motors (NIO) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in-line, narrower and narrower vs. our estimate, and in-line, narrower and in-line vs. consensus. </li>
<li>The brightest spot of the result is gross margin due to both vehicle and service gross margin improvements. </li>
<li>We keep rating at SELL and raise TP to US$1 to reflect better OPEX control.</li>
</ul>


NIO Motors (NIO) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in-line, narrower and narrower vs. our estimate, and in-line, narrower and in-line vs. consensus. 
The brightest spot of the result is gross margin due to both vehicle and service gross margin improvements. 
We keep rating at SELL and raise TP to US$1 to reflect better OPEX control.


[NIO Inc. (NIO US, SELL, TP US$1) Target Price Change]: Who Is Going to Give in a Slowing EV Market?

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO’s 2Q24 earnings were mixed as the QoQ rise in gross profit was offset by the increases in R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.</li><li>We project FY25/26 sales volume to surge 54%/23% YoY to 324,000/400,000 units, respectively, contributed by the Onvo and Firefly brands.</li><li>However, we believe such top-line growth with GPM expansion is still far away from covering R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses, especially with extra expenses for the new brands, such as sales channels and battery-swap stations.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO’s 2Q24 earnings were mixed as the QoQ rise in gross profit was offset by the increases in R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.We project FY25/26 sales volume to surge 54%/23% YoY to 324,000/400,000 units, respectively, contributed by the Onvo and Firefly brands.However, we believe such top-line growth with GPM expansion is still far away from covering R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses, especially with extra expenses for the new brands, such as sales channels and battery-swap stations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - New Brands Unlikely to Help NIO Break Even

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NIO (NIO US)

2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in...

Arun George

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - NIO’s Cost Control Disappoints Us Again

With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in...

CMB International

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[NIO Inc. (NIO US, SELL, TP US$1) Target Price Change]: Who Is Going to Give in a Slowing EV Market?

NIO Motors reports in-line results with improved gross margins, prompting a SELL rating and raised price target. We keep rating at SELL and raise...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - New Brands Unlikely to Help NIO Break Even

Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO’s 2Q24 earnings were mixed as the QoQ rise in gross profit was offset by the increases in R&D and SG&A...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in...

Arun George

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - NIO’s Cost Control Disappoints Us Again

With the Onvo L60’s designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in...

CMB International

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[NIO Inc. (NIO US, SELL, TP US$1) Target Price Change]: Who Is Going to Give in a Slowing EV Market?

​NIO Motors reports in-line results with improved gross margins, prompting a SELL rating and raised price target. We keep rating at SELL and raise...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NIO Inc. (NIO US) - New Brands Unlikely to Help NIO Break Even

Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO’s 2Q24 earnings were mixed as the QoQ rise in gross profit was offset by the increases in R&D and SG&A...

CMB International

NIO Motors reports in-line results with improved gross margins, prompting a SELL rating and raised price target. We keep rating at SELL and raise...