IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. 
NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. 


2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>3Q25 GPM beat with weak 4Q25 sales guidance. NIO’s 3Q25 revenue was in line with our prior forecast while its GPM was about 3.2ppts higher than our projection.</li><li>The beat was probably due to higher margins from the ES6, EC6, ET5 and ET5T.</li><li>SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses combined were about RMB120mn lower than our estimates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q25 GPM beat with weak 4Q25 sales guidance. NIO’s 3Q25 revenue was in line with our prior forecast while its GPM was about 3.2ppts higher than our projection.The beat was probably due to higher margins from the ES6, EC6, ET5 and ET5T.SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses combined were about RMB120mn lower than our estimates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) - Competition Likely Underestimated Despite 3Q Beat

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China dominates the global battery market and its manufacturers are expanding production rapidly into international markets.  Players like CATL support global automakers with the most advanced battery technology.</li>
<li>Growth of renewable energy has increased demand for Energy Storage Solutions (ESS). ESS stores energy from renewable sources, stabilizes the power grid, and provides power for industrial and commercial buildings. </li>
<li>China's battery companies are benefiting from AI data center (AIDC) storage growth, which has created intense demand for specialized energy storage solutions for this sector.</li>
</ul>


China dominates the global battery market and its manufacturers are expanding production rapidly into international markets.  Players like CATL support global automakers with the most advanced battery technology.
Growth of renewable energy has increased demand for Energy Storage Solutions (ESS). ESS stores energy from renewable sources, stabilizes the power grid, and provides power for industrial and commercial buildings. 
China's battery companies are benefiting from AI data center (AIDC) storage growth, which has created intense demand for specialized energy storage solutions for this sector.


CHINA'S BATTERY SECTOR OUTLOOK: You're Either Positive or Negative!

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>Analysts positive on EQDP's effect on SGX; Morningstar sees tailwind as temporary.</li><li>RHB's Yeo boosts Frencken's target price to $2.03 due to increased demand.</li><li>UOBKH's Loh raises Keppel price target to $13.23, citing increased dividends.</li></ul>

Analysts positive on EQDP's effect on SGX; Morningstar sees tailwind as temporary.RHB's Yeo boosts Frencken's target price to $2.03 due to increased demand.UOBKH's Loh raises Keppel price target to $13.23, citing increased dividends.

Singapore Market Roundup (06-Feb-2026): Analysts upbeat on EQDP's SGX impact; Morningstar warns

<ul><li>Both passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales and wholesale volumes in China are likely to hit new highs in 2025E.</li><li>That, along with trade-in subsidy and purchase-tax saving phase-out, could make 2026 interesting and complex.</li><li>Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Both passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales and wholesale volumes in China are likely to hit new highs in 2025E.That, along with trade-in subsidy and purchase-tax saving phase-out, could make 2026 interesting and complex.Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

4Q deliveries guidance was below expectations, and the sales momentum is declining. Breakeven targets are likely to be pushed out. The valuation is...

Arun George

NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) - Competition Likely Underestimated Despite 3Q Beat

3Q25 GPM beat with weak 4Q25 sales guidance. NIO’s 3Q25 revenue was in line with our prior forecast while its GPM was about 3.2ppts higher than our...

CMB International

CHINA'S BATTERY SECTOR OUTLOOK: You're Either Positive or Negative!

CATL is considering an equity offering of up to $5B to accelerate its overseas capacity build-out and battery project deals, especially in energy...

David Mudd

Singapore Market Roundup (06-Feb-2026): Analysts upbeat on EQDP's SGX impact; Morningstar warns

Analysts view EQDP positively for SGX; Morningstar sees it as a temporary boost. RHB raises Frencken's target to $2.03; UOBKH lifts Keppel's to...

Singapore Market Roundup

Auto - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match

Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. We project China’s PV retail sales volume to be largely flat YoY and wholesale volume to rise 2.9%...

CMB International

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