Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.</li><li>Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.</li><li>This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. </li></ul>

Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. 

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Two companies emerged from the first wave with the balance sheets and data to lead: Waymo, backed by $27B+ in cumulative Alphabet funding and generating a Sacra-estimated $355M in annualized revenue as of February 2026 across ~500,000 weekly paid rides in 11 U.S. cities, and Tesla, which is building its robotaxi on top of a consumer self-driving fleet of 7M+ vehicles generating ~1 billion miles of driving data per month.</li>
<li>The market is sorting into four layers: 1) vertically integrated robotaxi operators like Waymo, Tesla and Zoox that own the vehicle, the autonomy stack, the fleet and the customer relationship, 2) B2B software companies that license the AI driving brain to OEMs like Wayve, Applied Intuition, Mobileye and Nuro, 3) demand aggregators like Uber that route riders to whichever autonomous vehicle is nearest, and 4) fleet infrastructure providers like Moove ($400M ARR in June 2025, up from $275M in 2024), Vay and Avis that finance, maintain and operate the physical cars.</li>
<li>While Uber is profitable with a demand-aggregation model that can plug in any autonomous vehicle, Waymo has the most advanced full-stack robotaxi operation but burns ~$5B+ a year, a gap that explains their frenemy partnership dynamics where Waymo trades a cut of every Uber-routed fare for the demand density it needs while it races to drive vehicle costs down from ~$175K per Jaguar I-PACE toward a target of sub-$50K with a prospective Hyundai deal while pushing utilization from 35% toward 55%+.</li>
</ul>


Two companies emerged from the first wave with the balance sheets and data to lead: Waymo, backed by $27B+ in cumulative Alphabet funding and generating a Sacra-estimated $355M in annualized revenue as of February 2026 across ~500,000 weekly paid rides in 11 U.S. cities, and Tesla, which is building its robotaxi on top of a consumer self-driving fleet of 7M+ vehicles generating ~1 billion miles of driving data per month.
The market is sorting into four layers: 1) vertically integrated robotaxi operators like Waymo, Tesla and Zoox that own the vehicle, the autonomy stack, the fleet and the customer relationship, 2) B2B software companies that license the AI driving brain to OEMs like Wayve, Applied Intuition, Mobileye and Nuro, 3) demand aggregators like Uber that route riders to whichever autonomous vehicle is nearest, and 4) fleet infrastructure providers like Moove ($400M ARR in June 2025, up from $275M in 2024), Vay and Avis that finance, maintain and operate the physical cars.
While Uber is profitable with a demand-aggregation model that can plug in any autonomous vehicle, Waymo has the most advanced full-stack robotaxi operation but burns ~$5B+ a year, a gap that explains their frenemy partnership dynamics where Waymo trades a cut of every Uber-routed fare for the demand density it needs while it races to drive vehicle costs down from ~$175K per Jaguar I-PACE toward a target of sub-$50K with a prospective Hyundai deal while pushing utilization from 35% toward 55%+.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COMPUTEX 2026's first AI Robotics Zone showcased Taiwan's pitch:  supply enabling Physical AI solutions — motion, reducers, vision,  edge-AI compute — rather than build robot brands, echoing its semiconductor  playbook.</li>
<li>Commercially, the floor ran on robot arms and wheeled-base units for  manufacturing and logistics, plus edge-AI compute and machine vision; bipedal humanoids were mostly showpieces, with volume three-to-five years out.</li>
<li>High-Precision reducers remain a Japanese stronghold (Harmonic Drive  6324 JP, Nabtesco 6268 JP), but listed Taiwanese names are climbing: Turvo  (2233 TT) debuted a micro harmonic reducer at the show.</li>
</ul>


COMPUTEX 2026's first AI Robotics Zone showcased Taiwan's pitch:  supply enabling Physical AI solutions — motion, reducers, vision,  edge-AI compute — rather than build robot brands, echoing its semiconductor  playbook.
Commercially, the floor ran on robot arms and wheeled-base units for  manufacturing and logistics, plus edge-AI compute and machine vision; bipedal humanoids were mostly showpieces, with volume three-to-five years out.
High-Precision reducers remain a Japanese stronghold (Harmonic Drive  6324 JP, Nabtesco 6268 JP), but listed Taiwanese names are climbing: Turvo  (2233 TT) debuted a micro harmonic reducer at the show.


TechChain Insights: COMPUTEX 2026 -- On the Ground with Physical AI's New Supply Chain

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a>, an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.</li>
<li>SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company background and its ground breaking space segment.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.
SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.
In this note, we talk about the company background and its ground breaking space segment.


Aequitas: SpaceX IPO - Space - The Breakthrough Segment but with Low/No Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a>, an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.</li>
<li>SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.</li>
<li>We will undertake our more serious analysis in the coming days. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the other worldly claims and Grok’s view on SpaceX valuation.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.
SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.
We will undertake our more serious analysis in the coming days. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the other worldly claims and Grok’s view on SpaceX valuation.


Aequitas: SpaceX IPO- A Lighthearted Take on Some of the Claims - Grok Speaks the Truth on Valuation

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tesla (TSLA US)

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Booking.Com Of Robotaxi

TL;DR: After $30B+ burned in the first AV wave, end-to-end neural networks have made autonomous driving viable again with vertically integrated...

Sacra

TechChain Insights: COMPUTEX 2026 -- On the Ground with Physical AI's New Supply Chain

Taiwan's focus at COMPUTEX 2026's AI Robotics Zone is on supplying enabling Physical AI solutions rather than building robot brands, echoing its...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO - Space - The Breakthrough Segment but with Low/No Growth

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. In this note, we look at its ground breaking...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO- A Lighthearted Take on Some of the Claims - Grok Speaks the Truth on Valuation

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Booking.Com Of Robotaxi

TL;DR: After $30B+ burned in the first AV wave, end-to-end neural networks have made autonomous driving viable again with vertically integrated...

Sacra

TechChain Insights: COMPUTEX 2026 -- On the Ground with Physical AI's New Supply Chain

​Taiwan's focus at COMPUTEX 2026's AI Robotics Zone is on supplying enabling Physical AI solutions rather than building robot brands, echoing its...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO - Space - The Breakthrough Segment but with Low/No Growth

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. In this note, we look at its ground breaking...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO- A Lighthearted Take on Some of the Claims - Grok Speaks the Truth on Valuation

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the...

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan's focus at COMPUTEX 2026's AI Robotics Zone is on supplying enabling Physical AI solutions rather than building robot brands, echoing its...