Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>You might have heard the news that Nasdaq Inc announced1 a “special rebalance” for the Nasdaq 100; an index which tracks the largest technology stocks across a range of America’s sectors.</li><li>This reshuffle seeks to “address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights”; specifically the weightings of the Big 7 (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta) who, together, account for ~54% of the index.</li><li>The rebalance will be based on the shares outstanding as of July 3rd, and changes are expected to be announced on July 14th; taking effect by July 24th2.</li></ul>

You might have heard the news that Nasdaq Inc announced1 a “special rebalance” for the Nasdaq 100; an index which tracks the largest technology stocks across a range of America’s sectors.This reshuffle seeks to “address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights”; specifically the weightings of the Big 7 (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta) who, together, account for ~54% of the index.The rebalance will be based on the shares outstanding as of July 3rd, and changes are expected to be announced on July 14th; taking effect by July 24th2.

The Nasdaq's Special Rebalance Is Not So Special

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul>
<li>We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li>
<li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li>
<li>We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.
Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.
We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Receding credit risk and a more predictable inflationary environment will likely deliver tailwinds to cyclical stocks.</li>
<li>The U.S. Government is set to throw its support behind the EV industry, and Ford might be a primary beneficiary.</li>
<li>However, we are giving the stock the benefit of the doubt.</li>
</ul>


Receding credit risk and a more predictable inflationary environment will likely deliver tailwinds to cyclical stocks.
The U.S. Government is set to throw its support behind the EV industry, and Ford might be a primary beneficiary.
However, we are giving the stock the benefit of the doubt.


Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!</li><li>The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023</li><li>To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year</li></ul>

1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

<ul><li>All 6 ETFs positive in 2023 while ARKW ARKF ARKK ARKQ booming with 35%, 27%, 25% &amp; 17% respectively.</li><li>Risk appetite for the Innovation/Hyper Growth thematic is on!</li><li>Enhanced Price Action view: Ark 6 ETFs 2023 Returns &amp; Rebounders from their 52-week low + I added S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) for comparison</li></ul>

All 6 ETFs positive in 2023 while ARKW ARKF ARKK ARKQ booming with 35%, 27%, 25% &amp; 17% respectively.Risk appetite for the Innovation/Hyper Growth thematic is on!Enhanced Price Action view: Ark 6 ETFs 2023 Returns &amp; Rebounders from their 52-week low + I added S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) for comparison

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

The Nasdaq's Special Rebalance Is Not So Special

The rebalance will be based on the shares outstanding as of July 3rd, and changes are expected to be announced on July 14th; taking effect by July...

Investment Talk

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Ford: Surprisingly Still Undervalued

The U.S. Government is set to throw its support behind the EV industry, and Ford might be a primary beneficiary. However, we are giving the stock...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023

Maverick Equity Research

ARK Invest Short & Squeeze - Edition #3

All 6 ETFs positive in 2023 while ARKW ARKF ARKK ARKQ booming with 35%, 27%, 25% & 17% respectively. Risk appetite for the Innovation/Hyper Growth...

Maverick Equity Research

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