High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Audit /: U.S. watchdog fines three KPMG China partners for audit violations</li><li>Law enforcement /: As profit-driven, cross-regional law enforcement grows, scholars suggest fines be turned over to central government</li><li>China-Ukraine /: Ukraine’s top diplomat says China has ‘big potential’ role to help end war with Russia</li></ul>

Audit /: U.S. watchdog fines three KPMG China partners for audit violationsLaw enforcement /: As profit-driven, cross-regional law enforcement grows, scholars suggest fines be turned over to central governmentChina-Ukraine /: Ukraine’s top diplomat says China has ‘big potential’ role to help end war with Russia

CX Daily: U.S. Watchdog Fines Three KPMG China Partners for Audit Violations

<ul><li><strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> will increase the price of its popular Model Y crossover by 5,000 yuan ($694) in China, a move that offers rivals a temporary reprieve as a raging price war engulfs the world's largest auto market.</li><li>The price rise on China-made Model Y vehicles will start on April 1, Tesla confirmed with Caixin Wednesday. Meanwhile, some of the extras offered by Tesla to its Chinese customers, including an 8,000-yuan insurance subsidy, will expire on March 31.</li><li>Tesla previously announced a price increase of $1,000 for the Model Y in the United States and 2,000 euros ($2,542) in Europe.</li></ul>

Tesla Inc. will increase the price of its popular Model Y crossover by 5,000 yuan ($694) in China, a move that offers rivals a temporary reprieve as a raging price war engulfs the world's largest auto market.The price rise on China-made Model Y vehicles will start on April 1, Tesla confirmed with Caixin Wednesday. Meanwhile, some of the extras offered by Tesla to its Chinese customers, including an 8,000-yuan insurance subsidy, will expire on March 31.Tesla previously announced a price increase of $1,000 for the Model Y in the United States and 2,000 euros ($2,542) in Europe.

Tesla Increases Price of Model Y in China in Sign That Price War Is Easing 

<ul><li>Tesla / Analysis: Mounting competition in China comes at a bad time for Tesla </li><li>Corruption /Exclusive: China probes another central bank official linked to fallen businessman</li><li>Regulator /NFRA seeks to accelerate new energy vehicle sales by cutting loan down payments</li></ul>

Tesla / Analysis: Mounting competition in China comes at a bad time for Tesla Corruption /Exclusive: China probes another central bank official linked to fallen businessmanRegulator /NFRA seeks to accelerate new energy vehicle sales by cutting loan down payments

CX Daily: Mounting Competition In China Comes At A Bad Time For Tesla 

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li><p>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.</p><div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

CX Daily: U.S. Watchdog Fines Three KPMG China Partners for Audit Violations

Audit /: U.S. watchdog fines three KPMG China partners for audit violations Law enforcement /: As profit-driven, cross-regional law enforcement...

Caixin Global

Tesla Increases Price of Model Y in China in Sign That Price War Is Easing

Tesla Inc. will increase the price of its popular Model Y crossover by 5,000 yuan ($694) in China, a move that offers rivals a temporary reprieve...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Mounting Competition In China Comes At A Bad Time For Tesla

Tesla / Analysis: Mounting competition in China comes at a bad time for Tesla More of Tesla’s Chinese rivals are catching up in the sales race...

Caixin Global

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

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