Credit/Macro/Crypto Analyst, Former Credit/MA PM

Rose Choy

Crypto

<ul>
<li>USDT or Tether, the largest stablecoin, has been experiencing small discounts to peg at times (larger discount during market stress) but those looking for a blow up will be disappointed.</li>
<li>Tether's redemption dynamics are the main cause of the discount. Recent withdrawals in Tether and drop in market capitalization are the result of liquidations in the crypto space.</li>
<li>While Tether's reserves are not transparent, the Company is not regulated and is under no obligation to disclose their balance sheet/ reserves in full. </li>
</ul>


USDT or Tether, the largest stablecoin, has been experiencing small discounts to peg at times (larger discount during market stress) but those looking for a blow up will be disappointed.
Tether's redemption dynamics are the main cause of the discount. Recent withdrawals in Tether and drop in market capitalization are the result of liquidations in the crypto space.
While Tether's reserves are not transparent, the Company is not regulated and is under no obligation to disclose their balance sheet/ reserves in full. 


Specialising in Fintech - Research and Development, Kiitot

Tatja Karkkainen

Specialising in Fintech - Research and Development

Kiitot

Tatja specialises in digital assets and machine learning. She has authored a number of academic papers relating to network effects, financial inclusion, crypto futures and FOMO. Her interest lies especially in predicting long term value. She has had a long and successful track record in institutional investor relationship management, IT and alternative investments. PhD in (Finance) Fintech, MA in Politics, BA in International Relations and Politics. CAIA, IMC, Series 3.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With an IPO valuation of roughly $8.2 billion and current forward P/E of ~32 ×, Circle still looks poised for multiple expansion as regulatory clarity and stable-coin adoption gather pace.</li>
<li>Deal upsized from 32 m to 34 m shares, and priced $3 above the top of the original range, boosting total proceeds by &gt;20 %</li>
<li>Public float increases to ~13 % of the company, modestly improving trading liquidity while founders retain long-term control via Class B shares</li>
</ul>


With an IPO valuation of roughly $8.2 billion and current forward P/E of ~32 ×, Circle still looks poised for multiple expansion as regulatory clarity and stable-coin adoption gather pace.
Deal upsized from 32 m to 34 m shares, and priced $3 above the top of the original range, boosting total proceeds by &gt;20 %
Public float increases to ~13 % of the company, modestly improving trading liquidity while founders retain long-term control via Class B shares


Circle IPO: Wall Street’s New Fintech Darling Prices Above Range

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>Market inefficiencies persist in crypto markets, particularly in cross-exchange arbitrage and futures basis trading</li>
<li>Traditional factor models can be adapted for cryptocurrency markets with size, momentum, and liquidity factors showing statistical significance</li>
<li>On-Chain metrics provide unique alpha signals unavailable in traditional markets</li>
</ul>


Market inefficiencies persist in crypto markets, particularly in cross-exchange arbitrage and futures basis trading
Traditional factor models can be adapted for cryptocurrency markets with size, momentum, and liquidity factors showing statistical significance
On-Chain metrics provide unique alpha signals unavailable in traditional markets


New Research: Unlocking Quantitative Alpha in Cryptocurrency Markets

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>A stablecoin is a crucial class of cryptocurrency designed to offer a safe harbor within the often- volatile digital asset market.</li><li>Unlike popular cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, whose prices can swing dramatically, stablecoins aim to maintain a consistent value.</li><li>The stablecoin market is a significant and rapidly growing segment of the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. </li></ul>

A stablecoin is a crucial class of cryptocurrency designed to offer a safe harbor within the often- volatile digital asset market.Unlike popular cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, whose prices can swing dramatically, stablecoins aim to maintain a consistent value.The stablecoin market is a significant and rapidly growing segment of the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. 

Tech Talk: Stablecoin and US Legislation Is US Congress Finally Stepping Up to Crypto?

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst, Steno Research

Mads Eberhardt

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>President-elect Donald Trump has become a prominent figure with the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of his ambitious vision to transform the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” This outlook is undoubtedly positive, as the United States holds the title of the largest capital market globally and wields significant influence on the international stage.</li><li>However, many in the crypto market appear to overlook another highly encouraging regulatory development.</li><li>This involves the European Union’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework, which will be fully implemented across EU member states on December 30th.</li></ul>

President-elect Donald Trump has become a prominent figure with the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of his ambitious vision to transform the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” This outlook is undoubtedly positive, as the United States holds the title of the largest capital market globally and wields significant influence on the international stage.However, many in the crypto market appear to overlook another highly encouraging regulatory development.This involves the European Union’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework, which will be fully implemented across EU member states on December 30th.

Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump, No One Considers the EU’s MiCA

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Tether (USDT CURNCY)

Tether (USDT) - Not the Next Domino

This insight explains why USDT is not the next blow up in crypto and why there could be a small persistent discount to peg, due to redemption...

Rose Choy

Circle IPO: Wall Street’s New Fintech Darling Prices Above Range

At a forward P/E of 32×, Circle’s valuation remains modest for a regulated stablecoin frontrunner: propelled by enterprise payment pilots, a robust...

Tatja Karkkainen

New Research: Unlocking Quantitative Alpha in Cryptocurrency Markets

AI Agent Deep Dive! Not enough time to READ 👀? Check out the AI Agent Deep Dive Discussion of this Paper on Youtube: https://youtu.be...

William Mann

Tech Talk: Stablecoin and US Legislation Is US Congress Finally Stepping Up to Crypto?

A stablecoin is a crucial class of cryptocurrency designed to offer a safe harbor within the often- volatile digital asset market.

Water Tower Research

Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump, No One Considers the EU’s MiCA

President-elect Donald Trump has become a prominent figure with the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of his ambitious vision to transform...

Steno Research

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