Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.</li>
<li>The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.</li>
<li>Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.</li>
</ul>



Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.
The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.
Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.


2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> reported strong Q2FY23 results, with revenue growing 9% y/y, mainly driven by North America business due to launch of gRevlimid in the US market.</li>
<li>GRevlimid is not a one-off opportunity and will contribute meaningfully over the next few quarters as well. Price erosion in the base business continues to be within normal range.</li>
<li>Adjusted for the covid product sales during Q2 FY22, and the brand divestment income in Q1 FY23, Indian business has grown in mid-teens year-over-year and mid-single digit sequentially.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) reported strong Q2FY23 results, with revenue growing 9% y/y, mainly driven by North America business due to launch of gRevlimid in the US market.
GRevlimid is not a one-off opportunity and will contribute meaningfully over the next few quarters as well. Price erosion in the base business continues to be within normal range.
Adjusted for the covid product sales during Q2 FY22, and the brand divestment income in Q1 FY23, Indian business has grown in mid-teens year-over-year and mid-single digit sequentially.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Launch Aided Q2 Result; Rich Pipeline Lends Visibility

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> has recently received FDA approval for Vegzelma, a biosimilar to the reference product Avastin (bevacizumab), for the treatment of multiple types of cancer.</li>
<li>Apart from Celltrion, FDA has already approved three Avastin biosimilars. With increasing competition, ASP for the market leader Mvasi in the U.S. declined 39% y/y and 21% q/q in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Despite being present in the U.S. oncology biosimilar market for quite a long time, Celltrion has not been able to gain dominant market share for its existing products.</li>
</ul>



Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) has recently received FDA approval for Vegzelma, a biosimilar to the reference product Avastin (bevacizumab), for the treatment of multiple types of cancer.
Apart from Celltrion, FDA has already approved three Avastin biosimilars. With increasing competition, ASP for the market leader Mvasi in the U.S. declined 39% y/y and 21% q/q in 2Q22.
Despite being present in the U.S. oncology biosimilar market for quite a long time, Celltrion has not been able to gain dominant market share for its existing products.


Celltrion (068270 KS): Competition Makes US Approval of New Oncology Biosimilar Unappealing

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.</li>
<li>Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)</li>
</ul>


US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.
Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)


Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

<ul>
<li>Fierce competition is an industry-wide phenomena in biosimilar products. Despite being an early mover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> is also facing competition for its marketed biosimilars.</li>
<li>The market share of Celltrion’s key biosimilar product, Remsima is declining. Other marketed and upcoming biosimilars also have multiple existing players.</li>
<li>With the waning COVID-19 infections in the U.S., demand for Celltrion’s rapid test kits seems uncertain.</li>
</ul>


Fierce competition is an industry-wide phenomena in biosimilar products. Despite being an early mover, Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) is also facing competition for its marketed biosimilars.
The market share of Celltrion’s key biosimilar product, Remsima is declining. Other marketed and upcoming biosimilars also have multiple existing players.
With the waning COVID-19 infections in the U.S., demand for Celltrion’s rapid test kits seems uncertain.


Celltrion (068270 KS): Increasing Biosimilar Competition- Main Concerning Factor

Israel

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets generic and branded human pharmaceuticals, as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries serves customers worldwide.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA IT)

2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

Cipla is a strong play on Indian pharma. Riding on a differentiated product portfolio and new launches gaining market share, Cipla is well...

Tina Banerjee

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Launch Aided Q2 Result; Rich Pipeline Lends Visibility

Dr. Reddy’s reported record high quarterly revenue, supported by new launch. Pipeline of new launches in US, steady growth in India, and improved...

Tina Banerjee

Celltrion (068270 KS): Competition Makes US Approval of New Oncology Biosimilar Unappealing

Celltrion got FDA approval for its oncology biosimilar Vegzelma. However, increasing competition and price erosion in the US market, lessen...

Tina Banerjee

Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year...

Vermilion Research

Celltrion (068270 KS): Increasing Biosimilar Competition- Main Concerning Factor

Celltrion is facing increasing competition for its marketed products in both EU and the U.S. Price erosion coupled with inflated SG&A and R&D...

Tina Banerjee

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