Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year-over-year.</li><li>Key segments such as Analog and Embedded Processing exhibited solid growth, with year-over-year increases of 16% and 9%, respectively.</li><li>The company's industrial and automotive markets showed notable increases, with industrial revenue growing 25% year-on-year.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year-over-year.Key segments such as Analog and Embedded Processing exhibited solid growth, with year-over-year increases of 16% and 9%, respectively.The company's industrial and automotive markets showed notable increases, with industrial revenue growing 25% year-on-year.

Texas Instruments Has A MAJOR Tech Upgrade: New Fabs, Bigger Profits Ahead!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>The demand &amp; inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. </li>
<li>4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.</li>
<li>Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 &amp; 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.</li>
</ul>


The demand &amp; inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. 
4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.
Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 &amp; 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.


TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

<ul><li>Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) reported its second-quarter financial results with revenues amounting to $4.4 billion, marking a 9% sequential increase and a 16% rise year-over-year.</li><li>The distinct growth across major divisions, Analog, and Embedded Processing, was notable, achieving 18% and 10% year-on-year growth, respectively.</li><li>The company's other segments recorded a 14% increase from the prior year.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) reported its second-quarter financial results with revenues amounting to $4.4 billion, marking a 9% sequential increase and a 16% rise year-over-year.The distinct growth across major divisions, Analog, and Embedded Processing, was notable, achieving 18% and 10% year-on-year growth, respectively.The company's other segments recorded a 14% increase from the prior year.

Texas Instruments’ Secret Weapon: How Geopolitical Dependability Could Redefine Chip Supply!

<ul>
<li>2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%. 3Q guidance is close to Consensus, so you can’t call that a disappointment.</li>
<li>Very different tone. 1Q management was confident of a cyclical recovery and accelerating growth in 2H25. Now, we have lower growth in 3Q, more disclaimers, 2Q was “too hot” .</li>
<li>The stock was trading at 38x 2025 EPS and 32x 2026 before earnings, a bit of disappointment does crash the stock -13%. This can take weeks to settle down.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%. 3Q guidance is close to Consensus, so you can’t call that a disappointment.
Very different tone. 1Q management was confident of a cyclical recovery and accelerating growth in 2H25. Now, we have lower growth in 3Q, more disclaimers, 2Q was “too hot” .
The stock was trading at 38x 2025 EPS and 32x 2026 before earnings, a bit of disappointment does crash the stock -13%. This can take weeks to settle down.


TXN: Good Results, Decent Guidance, the Stock Tanks -13%. The Market Didn’t like the New Narrative.

<ul>
<li>TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.</li>
<li>Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. </li>
<li>The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.</li>
</ul>


TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. 
The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.


Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Texas Instruments Has A MAJOR Tech Upgrade: New Fabs, Bigger Profits Ahead!

Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7%...

Baptista Research

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

decline in revenue growth in 4Q25, weak EPS guidance for 4Q. TXN cutting production levels despite management stating inventories are good....

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instruments’ Secret Weapon: How Geopolitical Dependability Could Redefine Chip Supply!

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) reported its second-quarter financial results with revenues amounting to $4.4 billion, marking a 9% sequential...

Baptista Research

TXN: Good Results, Decent Guidance, the Stock Tanks -13%. The Market Didn’t like the New Narrative.

Texas Instrument TXN 2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%, 3Q guidance roughly inline. But major change in tone leading to a 13% stock decline.

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

TXN reported 3Q24 earnings above Consensus but 4Q guidance shows a delayed recovery, with declining revenue and EPS. Industrial demand is still...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Texas Instruments Has A MAJOR Tech Upgrade: New Fabs, Bigger Profits Ahead!

Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7%...

Baptista Research

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

decline in revenue growth in 4Q25, weak EPS guidance for 4Q. TXN cutting production levels despite management stating inventories are good....

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instruments’ Secret Weapon: How Geopolitical Dependability Could Redefine Chip Supply!

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) reported its second-quarter financial results with revenues amounting to $4.4 billion, marking a 9% sequential...

Baptista Research

TXN: Good Results, Decent Guidance, the Stock Tanks -13%. The Market Didn’t like the New Narrative.

Texas Instrument TXN ​2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%, 3Q guidance roughly inline. But major change in tone leading to a 13% stock decline.

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

​TXN reported 3Q24 earnings above Consensus but 4Q guidance shows a delayed recovery, with declining revenue and EPS. Industrial demand is still...

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instrument TXN 2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%, 3Q guidance roughly inline. But major change in tone leading to a 13% stock decline.

TXN reported 3Q24 earnings above Consensus but 4Q guidance shows a delayed recovery, with declining revenue and EPS. Industrial demand is still...