Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

Texas Instruments: Is Its China Revival Here To Stay? - Major Drivers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%. 3Q guidance is close to Consensus, so you can’t call that a disappointment.</li>
<li>Very different tone. 1Q management was confident of a cyclical recovery and accelerating growth in 2H25. Now, we have lower growth in 3Q, more disclaimers, 2Q was “too hot” .</li>
<li>The stock was trading at 38x 2025 EPS and 32x 2026 before earnings, a bit of disappointment does crash the stock -13%. This can take weeks to settle down.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%. 3Q guidance is close to Consensus, so you can’t call that a disappointment.
Very different tone. 1Q management was confident of a cyclical recovery and accelerating growth in 2H25. Now, we have lower growth in 3Q, more disclaimers, 2Q was “too hot” .
The stock was trading at 38x 2025 EPS and 32x 2026 before earnings, a bit of disappointment does crash the stock -13%. This can take weeks to settle down.


TXN: Good Results, Decent Guidance, the Stock Tanks -13%. The Market Didn’t like the New Narrative.