Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TXN: Good Results, Decent Guidance, the Stock Tanks -13%. The Market Didn’t like the New Narrative.

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

Texas Instruments: Is Its China Revival Here To Stay? - Major Drivers

Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Demand for Auto &amp; Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.</li>
<li>Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs. </li>
<li>Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.</li>
</ul>


Demand for Auto &amp; Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs. 
Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.


Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.