Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The demand &amp; inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. </li>
<li>4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.</li>
<li>Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 &amp; 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.</li>
</ul>


The demand &amp; inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. 
4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.
Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 &amp; 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.


TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control</li>
<li>We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)</li>
<li>We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control
We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)
We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS


Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025</li>
<li>Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.</li>
<li>The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. </li>
</ul>


A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 


Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US: China industry associations send warning over sourcing US chips (+/+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ACMR US: Limited impact from the addition of its subsidiaries to entity-list (/)</li>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 32% yoy in the prior week (+)</li>
</ul>


981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US: China industry associations send warning over sourcing US chips (+/+/-/-/-/-)
ACMR US: Limited impact from the addition of its subsidiaries to entity-list (/)
ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 32% yoy in the prior week (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors are the unsung heroes of the modern world. These tiny chips power everything from smartphones and laptops to cars, data centers, and even advanced artificial intelligence systems.</li>
<li>While the US has historically led in semiconductor innovation, China is rapidly trying to catch up. This competition has led to global push for self-sufficiency in semiconductor production.</li>
<li>Countries worldwide are investing heavily in semiconductor production to reduce their dependence on foreign suppliers and gain a strategic advantage.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors are the unsung heroes of the modern world. These tiny chips power everything from smartphones and laptops to cars, data centers, and even advanced artificial intelligence systems.
While the US has historically led in semiconductor innovation, China is rapidly trying to catch up. This competition has led to global push for self-sufficiency in semiconductor production.
Countries worldwide are investing heavily in semiconductor production to reduce their dependence on foreign suppliers and gain a strategic advantage.


Thematic Report: The Semiconductor Race~ A Battle for Technological Supremacy

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Texas Instruments (TXN US)

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

decline in revenue growth in 4Q25, weak EPS guidance for 4Q. TXN cutting production levels despite management stating inventories are good....

Nicolas Baratte

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

The submissions on proposed semiconductor tariffs were universally negative with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

China industry associations warn about sourcing US chips, limited impact on ACMR from entity-list, ZTO sees 32% yoy growth in parcel delivery volume.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Thematic Report: The Semiconductor Race~ A Battle for Technological Supremacy

Semiconductors are crucial for modern technology, with global competition driving countries to invest in self-sufficiency for strategic advantage.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

decline in revenue growth in 4Q25, weak EPS guidance for 4Q. TXN cutting production levels despite management stating inventories are good....

Nicolas Baratte

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

The submissions on proposed semiconductor tariffs were universally negative with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

​China industry associations warn about sourcing US chips, limited impact on ACMR from entity-list, ZTO sees 32% yoy growth in parcel delivery volume.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Thematic Report: The Semiconductor Race~ A Battle for Technological Supremacy

​Semiconductors are crucial for modern technology, with global competition driving countries to invest in self-sufficiency for strategic advantage.

Nimish Maheshwari

China industry associations warn about sourcing US chips, limited impact on ACMR from entity-list, ZTO sees 32% yoy growth in parcel delivery volume.

Semiconductors are crucial for modern technology, with global competition driving countries to invest in self-sufficiency for strategic advantage.