Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The recent share price pullback sees <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> </strong>trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. 
Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0(from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22.TOP’s 3Q22 net profit declined to Bt12.0m (-99% YoY, -100% QoQ)</li>
<li>Weak GRM and stock loss dragged 3Q22 profit The 3Q22 net profit plunged to Bt12.0m,compared to Bt2.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt25.3bn in 2Q22.The result came our lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>Excluding the extra items (stock loss of Bt9.2bn), the operating profit stood at Bt5.5bn (+343%YoY, -75%QoQ).The YoY growth was underpinned by a 60% surge in GIM following improved refinery margin</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0(from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22.TOP’s 3Q22 net profit declined to Bt12.0m (-99% YoY, -100% QoQ)
Weak GRM and stock loss dragged 3Q22 profit The 3Q22 net profit plunged to Bt12.0m,compared to Bt2.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt25.3bn in 2Q22.The result came our lower than our expectation.
Excluding the extra items (stock loss of Bt9.2bn), the operating profit stood at Bt5.5bn (+343%YoY, -75%QoQ).The YoY growth was underpinned by a 60% surge in GIM following improved refinery margin


TOP : 3Q22 Earnings Hit by Weak GRM and Stock Loss

<ul>
<li>Thailand's state-owned energy firm <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT (PTT TB)</a></strong> recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.</li>
<li>Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.</li>
<li>PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's state-owned energy firm PTT (PTT TB) recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.
Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.
PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.


PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a target price of Bt71. The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5x QoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high</li>
<li>Strong refinery performance drove 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5xQoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high.The result came out better than market expectation and 12% </li>
<li>Excluding the extra items viz, divestment of GPSC stake (Bt17.3bn), stock gain (Bt7.6bn), Hedging (-Bt10.3bn) and FX loss (-Bt1.3bn), the recurring profit stood at Bt14.7bn (+10x YoY, +2.5x QoQ). </li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a target price of Bt71. The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5x QoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high
Strong refinery performance drove 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5xQoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high.The result came out better than market expectation and 12% 
Excluding the extra items viz, divestment of GPSC stake (Bt17.3bn), stock gain (Bt7.6bn), Hedging (-Bt10.3bn) and FX loss (-Bt1.3bn), the recurring profit stood at Bt14.7bn (+10x YoY, +2.5x QoQ). 


TOP : Strong Refinery Performance & Extra Gain Drove 2Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>We have a positive view on the 2Q22 earnings performance as the net profit is expected to surge +10x YoY and+2xQoQ to Bt22.5bn, mainly driven by an all-time high GRM</li>
<li>Bright 2Q22 earnings outlook We estimate TOP to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt22.5bn (+962% YoY, +214% QoQ).The significant earnings growth will be supported by an all-time high gross refinery</li>
<li>The strong refinery performance should aid the group’s gross integrated margin rise to US$24/bbl (up from US$7.6/bbl in 1Q22),despite the weak contribution from aromatics &amp; LAB segment as the product </li>
</ul>


We have a positive view on the 2Q22 earnings performance as the net profit is expected to surge +10x YoY and+2xQoQ to Bt22.5bn, mainly driven by an all-time high GRM
Bright 2Q22 earnings outlook We estimate TOP to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt22.5bn (+962% YoY, +214% QoQ).The significant earnings growth will be supported by an all-time high gross refinery
The strong refinery performance should aid the group’s gross integrated margin rise to US$24/bbl (up from US$7.6/bbl in 1Q22),despite the weak contribution from aromatics &amp; LAB segment as the product 


Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

I'd look to buy PTT outright; or hedge 40% with PTTEP (worth 36% of NAV); 15% of PTT Oil (worth 14% of NAV), together with O&G names to short.

David Blennerhassett

TOP : 3Q22 Earnings Hit by Weak GRM and Stock Loss

We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0 (from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22. TOP’s 3Q22 net...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.

David Blennerhassett

TOP : Strong Refinery Performance & Extra Gain Drove 2Q22 Profit

We maintain the BUY call with a target price of Bt71. The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5x QoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high, mainly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP : Strong 2Q22 Performance Outlook

We have a positive view on the 2Q22 earnings performance as the net profit is expected to surge +10x YoY and +2x QoQ to Bt22.5bn, mainly driven by...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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