Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.</li><li>Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.</li><li>Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.</li></ul>

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices hold relatively firm vs Singapore gasoil even as they edge lower.</li><li>Light-grade margins slip even amid signs of healthy regional demand.</li><li>Premium of ex-tank Singapore Group II N150 to FOB Asia cargo price also falls to lowest Q2 2024.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices hold relatively firm vs Singapore gasoil even as they edge lower.Light-grade margins slip even amid signs of healthy regional demand.Premium of ex-tank Singapore Group II N150 to FOB Asia cargo price also falls to lowest Q2 2024.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could be more cautious amid expectations of healthy availability of supply within the region and in other markets.</li><li>Signs of more manageable build-up of surplus supplies in July-Aug 2025 curb pressure on refiners to make sharp price adjustments to clear volumes.</li><li>Signs of pick-up in availability of supplies in other markets could still put pressure on regional refiners to adjust prices to stay competitive.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could be more cautious amid expectations of healthy availability of supply within the region and in other markets.Signs of more manageable build-up of surplus supplies in July-Aug 2025 curb pressure on refiners to make sharp price adjustments to clear volumes.Signs of pick-up in availability of supplies in other markets could still put pressure on regional refiners to adjust prices to stay competitive.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 September

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

<ul><li>Global base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Margins hold firm at time of year when fundamentals are typically weaker.</li><li>Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high base oils output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Margins hold firm at time of year when fundamentals are typically weaker.Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high base oils output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 September

Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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Thai Oil Pcl (TOP TB)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025. Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 September

Asia’s base oils prices hold relatively firm vs Singapore gasoil even as they edge lower. Light-grade margins slip even amid signs of healthy...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 September

Asia’s base oils demand could be more cautious amid expectations of healthy availability of supply within the region and in other markets. Signs...

Base Oil News

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 September

Global base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Margins hold firm at time of year when fundamentals are typically...

Base Oil News

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