Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).</li><li>It eases the funding plan for the additional investment required for the CFP, amounting to USD1,776mn, by allowing the company to scale back or delay a bond issuance/loans and reduce interest expenses.</li><li>This is reflected in an upward revision of the net profit estimates for 2025-26E and the new fair value of Bt32.0 (previously Bt27.0).</li></ul>

The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).It eases the funding plan for the additional investment required for the CFP, amounting to USD1,776mn, by allowing the company to scale back or delay a bond issuance/loans and reduce interest expenses.This is reflected in an upward revision of the net profit estimates for 2025-26E and the new fair value of Bt32.0 (previously Bt27.0).

Thai Oil - CFP: Eased Funding Plan but Challenges Remain

<ul><li>We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts.</li><li>However, the 2024E net profit is likely to decline YoY, in line with the lower market GIM and stock losses.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts, projecting 2-year core EPS growth at a -21% CAGR, which underperforms the sector.</li></ul>

We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts.However, the 2024E net profit is likely to decline YoY, in line with the lower market GIM and stock losses.We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts, projecting 2-year core EPS growth at a -21% CAGR, which underperforms the sector.

Thai Oil  - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Improved QoQ; CFP the Overhang

<ul><li>The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding remaining construction, and the funding plan).</li><li>TOP’s share price is trading at a higher-than-usual ERP to compensate for these risks.</li><li>We have revised down our 2025-26E profit forecasts by 24-28% due to higher interest expenses from a bond issuance and/or borrowings, resulting in negative 2-year core EPS growth (-20% CAGR) that underperforms the sector. </li></ul>

The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding remaining construction, and the funding plan).TOP’s share price is trading at a higher-than-usual ERP to compensate for these risks.We have revised down our 2025-26E profit forecasts by 24-28% due to higher interest expenses from a bond issuance and/or borrowings, resulting in negative 2-year core EPS growth (-20% CAGR) that underperforms the sector. 

Thai Oil - The CFP Entails Higher than Previously Expected Risks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 28th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods, Advanced Info Service, Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service, Cp Foods.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 28th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods, Advanced Info Service, Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service, Cp Foods.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 28th): Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices extend steep fall vs gasoil prices.</li><li>Weaker outright prices compound the drop.</li><li>Sliding price-differentials, combined with increasingly firm diesel premium to crude oil, increase pressure on refiners to adjust output in response.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices extend steep fall vs gasoil prices.Weaker outright prices compound the drop.Sliding price-differentials, combined with increasingly firm diesel premium to crude oil, increase pressure on refiners to adjust output in response.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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Thai Oil Pcl (TOP TB)

Thai Oil - CFP: Eased Funding Plan but Challenges Remain

The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Improved QoQ; CFP the Overhang

We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts. However, the 2024E net profit...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - The CFP Entails Higher than Previously Expected Risks

The risks associated with the CFP are higher than previously expected (e.g., significant cost overruns, COD delayed by three years, risks regarding...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 28th): Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Intouch (INTUCH TB), Airports of Thailand (AOT...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

Asia’s base oils prices extend steep fall vs gasoil prices. Weaker outright prices compound the drop. Sliding price-differentials, combined with...

Base Oil News

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