Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.</li><li>Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.</li><li>This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).</li></ul>

The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>We recommend accumulative buy at the support as the index already sank sharply, creating the chance for a technical rebound.</li><li>CPN moved sideways with a white candlestick, and the RSI has moved in the same direction.</li><li>The stock was hence able to stand above the support at 68 baht, increasing the likelihood of a continuing rebound.</li></ul>

We recommend accumulative buy at the support as the index already sank sharply, creating the chance for a technical rebound.CPN moved sideways with a white candlestick, and the RSI has moved in the same direction.The stock was hence able to stand above the support at 68 baht, increasing the likelihood of a continuing rebound.

Recommendation: Accumulative Buy at the Support

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The KTX Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed by KTX, with investments limited to securities covered by at least four analysts.</li>
<li>We have raised the portfolio's weighting in the energy sector through additions of BCP, GPSC, SPRC, and TOP, while also adding CENTEL.</li>
<li>The rebound in bank stocks lifted the portfolio's average return by 0.12%, broadly in line with the SET's 0.19% gain.</li>
</ul>


The KTX Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed by KTX, with investments limited to securities covered by at least four analysts.
We have raised the portfolio's weighting in the energy sector through additions of BCP, GPSC, SPRC, and TOP, while also adding CENTEL.
The rebound in bank stocks lifted the portfolio's average return by 0.12%, broadly in line with the SET's 0.19% gain.


KTX Tactical Picks - July 23, 2026 (Eng.)

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<h2>Energy Sector: Overweight E&amp;P, Neutral on Refinery and Petrochemical</h2>
<h3>Crude: Solid OPEC+ supply curbs to push crude price up</h3>
<div>• Brent crude oil price spiked to US$75.0/bbl in early July, a two-year high. We see the crude price to maintain at high levels supported by OPEC+ controlled production measures and rising demand from strong global economic recovery after vaccine rollout. We maintain our bullish outlook for 3Q21 and expect the Brent crude rise and maintain at US$80/bbl level. PTTEP is our top pick,</div>
<p></p>
<h3>Refinery: Low pace GRM recovery due to dragged economic growth</h3>
<p>• We expect the gasoline and diesel demand to rise gradually supported by US and EU economic recovery. While jet fuel demand will continue to be under pressure from pandemic-led air travel restrictions. Thus, we expect the GRM to remain flat during 3Q21 and gradually recover by 4Q21. Maintain short-term neutral view on TOP, SPRC, BCP.</p>
<h3>Petrochemicals: Back to pre-Covid oversupply</h3>
<div>• We expect olefin spread to weaken in 2H21 as PE capacity at 7 MTA (6% global capacity) and PP capacity at 6.4 MTA (6% global capacity) will be commercialized in 2H21. we expect polyester and PET demand to fall in 2H21 due to seasonality. Meanwhile, we expect the aromatic spread to remain healthy. PX spread will be supported by new capacity in downstream PTA products from China while BZ demand remains strong from electronics appliance production and downstream (SM) new capacity. Thus, due to the weak 2H21 earnings outlook, we have a neutral view on PTTGC.</div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/218/177/original/ENERGY1.JPG?1626146258" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="218177"></figure>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/218/178/original/ENERGY2.JPG?1626146269" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="218178"></figure>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/218/179/original/ENERGY3.JPG?1626146302" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="218179"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data. Notes: Valuation summary of stocks under CGS coverage, as of 9 July 2021 ,</div>
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</div>

Energy Sector: Overweight E&amp;P, Neutral on Refinery and Petrochemical
Crude: Solid OPEC+ supply curbs to push crude price up
• Brent crude oil price spiked to US$75.0/bbl in early July, a two-year high. We see the crude price to maintain at high levels supported by OPEC+ controlled production measures and rising demand from strong global economic recovery after vaccine rollout. We maintain our bullish outlook for 3Q21 and expect the Brent crude rise and maintain at US$80/bbl level. PTTEP is our top pick,

Refinery: Low pace GRM recovery due to dragged economic growth
• We expect the gasoline and diesel demand to rise gradually supported by US and EU economic recovery. While jet fuel demand will continue to be under pressure from pandemic-led air travel restrictions. Thus, we expect the GRM to remain flat during 3Q21 and gradually recover by 4Q21. Maintain short-term neutral view on TOP, SPRC, BCP.
Petrochemicals: Back to pre-Covid oversupply
• We expect olefin spread to weaken in 2H21 as PE capacity at 7 MTA (6% global capacity) and PP capacity at 6.4 MTA (6% global capacity) will be commercialized in 2H21. we expect polyester and PET demand to fall in 2H21 due to seasonality. Meanwhile, we expect the aromatic spread to remain healthy. PX spread will be supported by new capacity in downstream PTA products from China while BZ demand remains strong from electronics appliance production and downstream (SM) new capacity. Thus, due to the weak 2H21 earnings outlook, we have a neutral view on PTTGC.










Sources: CGS Research, company data. Notes: Valuation summary of stocks under CGS coverage, as of 9 July 2021 ,




<ul>
<li>There have been no changes to portfolio holdings today.</li>
<li>Profit-taking in energy stocks dragged the portfolio's average return down by 0.87%, underperforming the SET (+0.1%), which was supported by the rebound in technology stocks.</li>
<li>The KTX Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed by KTX, with investments limited to securities covered by at least four analysts.</li>
</ul>


There have been no changes to portfolio holdings today.
Profit-taking in energy stocks dragged the portfolio's average return down by 0.87%, underperforming the SET (+0.1%), which was supported by the rebound in technology stocks.
The KTX Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed by KTX, with investments limited to securities covered by at least four analysts.


Thailand

Thai Oil is Thailand's largest integrated petroleum refining and petrochemical company, operating one of Asia's most complex single-site refineries with a crude distillation capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company produces a wide range of refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, and lube base oil, alongside engaging in power generation and other supporting businesses. Thai Oil was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP TB)

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR)

Krungthai XSpring

Recommendation: Accumulative Buy at the Support

We recommend accumulative buy at the support as the index already sank sharply, creating the chance for a technical rebound. CPN moved sideways...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical Picks - July 23, 2026 (Eng.)

The KTX Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed by KTX, with investments limited to securities covered by at least four analysts. We have raised...

Krungthai XSpring

Energy Sector Outlook 3Q21

We maintain the BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt146, derived using DCF methodology (WACC 9.4%, TG 2%). Our valuation implies 11x...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

KTX TACTICAL PICKS - July 9, 2026 (Eng.)

There have been no changes to portfolio holdings today. Profit-taking in energy stocks dragged the portfolio's average return down by 0.87%,...

Krungthai XSpring

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