Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude price<ul><li>We expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021.  PTTEP is our top pick, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.</li></ul>Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRM<ul><li>Thai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). TOP is our top pick among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).</li></ul>Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recovery<ul><li>We foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). PTTGC is our top pick as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.</li></ul><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/642/original/SMK1.png?1611645077" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184642"></figure>Valuation Summary*
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/643/original/Picture1.jpg?1611645252" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184643"></figure></section>Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET</section>

Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude priceWe expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021.  PTTEP is our top pick, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRMThai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). TOP is our top pick among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recoveryWe foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). PTTGC is our top pick as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.Valuation Summary*
Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Petroleum Refining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q25 core profit grew strongly YoY and QoQ, supported by higher market GRM and well-managed OPEX.</li><li>We maintain our view of 2026–28E core profit growth at a 9% CAGR, driven by mid-cycle GRM and stable crude runs, supported by expansion into fuel marketing.</li><li>Given SPRC’s high GRM leverage (as seen in 4Q25), weaker 1Q26E earnings momentum QoQ and tighter valuation, we downgrade to Neutral with a 12M FV of Bt7.55 (required return 7.7%; previously Outperform, FV Bt7.20).</li></ul>

4Q25 core profit grew strongly YoY and QoQ, supported by higher market GRM and well-managed OPEX.We maintain our view of 2026–28E core profit growth at a 9% CAGR, driven by mid-cycle GRM and stable crude runs, supported by expansion into fuel marketing.Given SPRC’s high GRM leverage (as seen in 4Q25), weaker 1Q26E earnings momentum QoQ and tighter valuation, we downgrade to Neutral with a 12M FV of Bt7.55 (required return 7.7%; previously Outperform, FV Bt7.20).

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): Solid 4Q25-2025 Core Profit

<ul><li>We take a neutral view on asset monetization (through lease and leaseback transactions), which is part of the deleveraging plan to mitigate credit rating risk and increase opportunity for issuing perpetual bonds.</li><li>TOP is proceeding with its asset monetization plan through lease and leaseback transactions by establishing a new subsidiary (TOP 51%, PTT Tank subsidiary 49%) to lease out certain infrastructure assets (crude oil storage tanks, single buoy mooring (SBM), truck loading station, and land).</li><li>TOP will receive Bt18.23bn in cash to reduce debt, which is expected to lower net D/E by 0.15x (to 0.45x) and net debt/EBITDA by 1.83x (to 8.54x).</li></ul>

We take a neutral view on asset monetization (through lease and leaseback transactions), which is part of the deleveraging plan to mitigate credit rating risk and increase opportunity for issuing perpetual bonds.TOP is proceeding with its asset monetization plan through lease and leaseback transactions by establishing a new subsidiary (TOP 51%, PTT Tank subsidiary 49%) to lease out certain infrastructure assets (crude oil storage tanks, single buoy mooring (SBM), truck loading station, and land).TOP will receive Bt18.23bn in cash to reduce debt, which is expected to lower net D/E by 0.15x (to 0.45x) and net debt/EBITDA by 1.83x (to 8.54x).

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): Asset Monetization: Deleveraging, Lower Credit Risk, Earnings Hit

<ul><li>2Q25 net profit came in above expectations due to higher- than-expected one-off gains (i.e., a gain on bargain purchases and a gain from bond buybacks).</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts and our view expecting a -6% CAGR in 2Y core EPS growth, reflecting a flat market GRM and market GIM, as well as higher financing costs to support additional CAPEX for the CFP.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate a neutral view on the current valuation, with limited share price upside risk, amid the 2Y core EPS growth lagging behind the sector. </li></ul>

2Q25 net profit came in above expectations due to higher- than-expected one-off gains (i.e., a gain on bargain purchases and a gain from bond buybacks).We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts and our view expecting a -6% CAGR in 2Y core EPS growth, reflecting a flat market GRM and market GIM, as well as higher financing costs to support additional CAPEX for the CFP.The valuation metrics indicate a neutral view on the current valuation, with limited share price upside risk, amid the 2Y core EPS growth lagging behind the sector. 

Thai Oil - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings Boosted by One-Off Gains

<ul><li>TOP reported a crude oil spill incident near the "SBM-2" (Single Buoy Mooring) at Thai Oil's refinery, which occurred on June 5, 2025, at 11:54 p.m.</li><li>The incident is not affecting refinery operations.</li><li>The company maintains comprehensive risk insurance coverage, including third-party liability insurance, environmental liability insurance, and transport insurance.</li></ul>

TOP reported a crude oil spill incident near the "SBM-2" (Single Buoy Mooring) at Thai Oil's refinery, which occurred on June 5, 2025, at 11:54 p.m.The incident is not affecting refinery operations.The company maintains comprehensive risk insurance coverage, including third-party liability insurance, environmental liability insurance, and transport insurance.

Conference Call: Crude Oil Spill Near Single Buoy Mooring No. 2 (SBM-2) At Sea

Thailand

Thai Oil is Thailand's largest integrated petroleum refining and petrochemical company, operating one of Asia's most complex single-site refineries with a crude distillation capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company produces a wide range of refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, and lube base oil, alongside engaging in power generation and other supporting businesses. Thai Oil was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP TB)

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil demand recovery to drive 2021 earnings. We expect bright E&P business performance from recovering crude price, and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): Solid 4Q25-2025 Core Profit

We maintain our view of 2026–28E core profit growth at a 9% CAGR, driven by mid-cycle GRM and stable crude runs, supported by expansion into fuel...

Krungthai XSpring

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): Asset Monetization: Deleveraging, Lower Credit Risk, Earnings Hit

TOP will receive Bt18.23bn in cash to reduce debt, which is expected to lower net D/E by 0.15x (to 0.45x) and net debt/EBITDA by 1.83x (to 8.54x).

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings Boosted by One-Off Gains

2Q25 net profit came in above expectations due to higher- than-expected one-off gains (i.e., a gain on bargain purchases and a gain from bond...

Krungthai XSpring

Conference Call: Crude Oil Spill Near Single Buoy Mooring No. 2 (SBM-2) At Sea

TOP reported a crude oil spill incident near the "SBM-2" (Single Buoy Mooring) at Thai Oil's refinery, which occurred on June 5, 2025, at 11:54...

Krungthai XSpring

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