Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.</li><li>NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.</li><li>9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.</li></ul>

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

<ul><li>3Q25E core profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, despite seasonal sales growth, due to margin pressure from US tariffs, a stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.</li><li>We raise our fair value to Bt10.60, implying a required return of 9.1%, based on updated macro assumptions: Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (vs. previous Bt9.25, 10.3%, 1.45%, and 5.26%, respectively).</li><li>Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an Underperform rating, reflecting current fundamentals and a long-term growth outlook in line with peers.</li></ul>

3Q25E core profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, despite seasonal sales growth, due to margin pressure from US tariffs, a stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.We raise our fair value to Bt10.60, implying a required return of 9.1%, based on updated macro assumptions: Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (vs. previous Bt9.25, 10.3%, 1.45%, and 5.26%, respectively).Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an Underperform rating, reflecting current fundamentals and a long-term growth outlook in line with peers.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25E Profit Expected To Have Dropped YoY...

<ul><li>2Q25 profit came in above expectations, driven by a better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-expected operating expenses.</li><li>However, 1H25 core profit was recorded at Bt1.8bn, down 23% YoY, due to an 8% decline in sales (despite an improved GPM and lower operating expenses).</li><li>TU revised its full-year sales target to a 1-2% decline (from the previous +1-3%), implying that 2H25E sales must grow 6% YoY — an ambitious goal given the strong baht and sluggish economy.</li></ul>

2Q25 profit came in above expectations, driven by a better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-expected operating expenses.However, 1H25 core profit was recorded at Bt1.8bn, down 23% YoY, due to an 8% decline in sales (despite an improved GPM and lower operating expenses).TU revised its full-year sales target to a 1-2% decline (from the previous +1-3%), implying that 2H25E sales must grow 6% YoY — an ambitious goal given the strong baht and sluggish economy.

Thai Union Group - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings; Still Challenging in 2H25E

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a></strong>, currently holding 6.19% in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a></strong>, a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer. </li>
<li>Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If &lt;13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.</li>
<li>Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer. 
Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If &lt;13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.


Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s Partial Tender

<ul><li>Core profit for 2Q25E is expected to decline YoY but rise QoQ, as recovering sales and margins should be partially offset by the stronger baht, higher operating expenses, and increased tax payments.</li><li>To reflect the earnings downgrade for ITC, we have revised down TU’s core profit estimates for 2025-27E by an average of 2% per year, resulting in projected core profit growth of a -1% CAGR over the next three years.</li><li>Based on the revised earnings forecasts and updated macroeconomic assumptions, we derive a new fair value of Bt9.20, using a required return of 10.3% (previously Bt11.50 and 8.2%, respectively).</li></ul>

Core profit for 2Q25E is expected to decline YoY but rise QoQ, as recovering sales and margins should be partially offset by the stronger baht, higher operating expenses, and increased tax payments.To reflect the earnings downgrade for ITC, we have revised down TU’s core profit estimates for 2025-27E by an average of 2% per year, resulting in projected core profit growth of a -1% CAGR over the next three years.Based on the revised earnings forecasts and updated macroeconomic assumptions, we derive a new fair value of Bt9.20, using a required return of 10.3% (previously Bt11.50 and 8.2%, respectively).

Thai Union Group - 2Q25E Profit to Decline YoY but Increase QoQ

Thailand

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited provides frozen and canned seafood products. The Company offers seafood products including tuna, sardines, mackerel, herring, and salmon. Thai Union Group serves customers worldwide.

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Thai Union Group (TU-R TB)

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and...

Krungthai XSpring

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25E Profit Expected To Have Dropped YoY...

Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an Underperform rating, reflecting current fundamentals and a long-term growth outlook in line with peers.

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings; Still Challenging in 2H25E

2Q25 profit came in above expectations, driven by a better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-expected operating expenses.

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s Partial Tender

Mitsubishi's partial arrives shortly after Thai Union touched a multi-year low. I'm not completely sold on this space and might look to take down...

David Blennerhassett

Thai Union Group - 2Q25E Profit to Decline YoY but Increase QoQ

Based on the revised earnings forecasts and updated macroeconomic assumptions, we derive a new fair value of Bt9.20, using a required return of...

Krungthai XSpring

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