Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q25E earnings are expected to fall YoY and QoQ, with 1Q26E entering a low season.</li><li>Valuation metrics suggest up to 18% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt10.30, based on an earnings-yield approach with a 9.6% required return.</li><li>1Q26E would be a low season, with ongoing headwinds from weaker US demand amid intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US tariffs) and tuna costs rising faster than selling prices.</li></ul>

4Q25E earnings are expected to fall YoY and QoQ, with 1Q26E entering a low season.Valuation metrics suggest up to 18% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt10.30, based on an earnings-yield approach with a 9.6% required return.1Q26E would be a low season, with ongoing headwinds from weaker US demand amid intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US tariffs) and tuna costs rising faster than selling prices.

Thai Union Group Plc. (TU): 4Q25E Profit Down; 1Q26E Challenging

<ul><li>3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.</li><li>NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.</li><li>9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.</li></ul>

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain strong and Chinese swine prices have weakened below production costs.</li><li>Vietnamese swine prices fell 1% MoM in April, but rose 31% YoY and QoQ in 1Q26.</li><li>Chinese swine prices fell 11% MoM in April, with 1Q26 down 25% YoY… nearing a bottom?</li></ul>

Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain strong and Chinese swine prices have weakened below production costs.Vietnamese swine prices fell 1% MoM in April, but rose 31% YoY and QoQ in 1Q26.Chinese swine prices fell 11% MoM in April, with 1Q26 down 25% YoY… nearing a bottom?

Agribusiness And Food: Thai Swine And Broiler Prices Recovering...

<ul>
<li>KBANK, KTB, THANI and TU have fallen below the ranking criteria, with holding-period returns of -1.4%, -2.4%, -3.8% and -4.7%, respectively. DOHOME has been added to the portfolio.</li>
<li>A strong rebound in electronics stocks lifted the portfolio's average return by 0.31%, outperforming the SET, which fell 0.20% amid selling pressure in banking, transportation and energy stocks.</li>
</ul>


KBANK, KTB, THANI and TU have fallen below the ranking criteria, with holding-period returns of -1.4%, -2.4%, -3.8% and -4.7%, respectively. DOHOME has been added to the portfolio.
A strong rebound in electronics stocks lifted the portfolio's average return by 0.31%, outperforming the SET, which fell 0.20% amid selling pressure in banking, transportation and energy stocks.


<ul><li>Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.</li><li>We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.</li><li>We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER</li></ul>

Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

Thailand

Thai Union Group is a global producer of seafood-based products, specializing in ambient (shelf-stable), frozen, and chilled seafood, as well as pet care items and value-added products. The company's key products include canned tuna, frozen shrimp, sardines, and mackerel, distributed globally under a portfolio of leading brands. Thai Union Group is headquartered in Samut Sakhon, Thailand, and was founded in 1977.

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Thai Union Group (TU-R TB)

Thai Union Group Plc. (TU): 4Q25E Profit Down; 1Q26E Challenging

Valuation metrics suggest up to 18% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt10.30, based on an earnings-yield approach with a 9.6% required return.

Krungthai XSpring

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness And Food: Thai Swine And Broiler Prices Recovering...

Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical Picks

KBANK, KTB, THANI and TU have fallen below the ranking criteria, with holding-period returns of -1.4%, -2.4%, -3.8% and -4.7%, respectively....

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Krungthai XSpring

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