Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25E core profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, despite seasonal sales growth, due to margin pressure from US tariffs, a stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.</li><li>We raise our fair value to Bt10.60, implying a required return of 9.1%, based on updated macro assumptions: Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (vs. previous Bt9.25, 10.3%, 1.45%, and 5.26%, respectively).</li><li>Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an Underperform rating, reflecting current fundamentals and a long-term growth outlook in line with peers.</li></ul>

3Q25E core profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, despite seasonal sales growth, due to margin pressure from US tariffs, a stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.We raise our fair value to Bt10.60, implying a required return of 9.1%, based on updated macro assumptions: Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (vs. previous Bt9.25, 10.3%, 1.45%, and 5.26%, respectively).Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an Underperform rating, reflecting current fundamentals and a long-term growth outlook in line with peers.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25E Profit Expected To Have Dropped YoY...

<ul><li>2Q25 profit came in above expectations, driven by a better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-expected operating expenses.</li><li>However, 1H25 core profit was recorded at Bt1.8bn, down 23% YoY, due to an 8% decline in sales (despite an improved GPM and lower operating expenses).</li><li>TU revised its full-year sales target to a 1-2% decline (from the previous +1-3%), implying that 2H25E sales must grow 6% YoY — an ambitious goal given the strong baht and sluggish economy.</li></ul>

2Q25 profit came in above expectations, driven by a better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-expected operating expenses.However, 1H25 core profit was recorded at Bt1.8bn, down 23% YoY, due to an 8% decline in sales (despite an improved GPM and lower operating expenses).TU revised its full-year sales target to a 1-2% decline (from the previous +1-3%), implying that 2H25E sales must grow 6% YoY — an ambitious goal given the strong baht and sluggish economy.

Thai Union Group - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings; Still Challenging in 2H25E

<ul><li>Core profit for 2Q25E is expected to decline YoY but rise QoQ, as recovering sales and margins should be partially offset by the stronger baht, higher operating expenses, and increased tax payments.</li><li>To reflect the earnings downgrade for ITC, we have revised down TU’s core profit estimates for 2025-27E by an average of 2% per year, resulting in projected core profit growth of a -1% CAGR over the next three years.</li><li>Based on the revised earnings forecasts and updated macroeconomic assumptions, we derive a new fair value of Bt9.20, using a required return of 10.3% (previously Bt11.50 and 8.2%, respectively).</li></ul>

Core profit for 2Q25E is expected to decline YoY but rise QoQ, as recovering sales and margins should be partially offset by the stronger baht, higher operating expenses, and increased tax payments.To reflect the earnings downgrade for ITC, we have revised down TU’s core profit estimates for 2025-27E by an average of 2% per year, resulting in projected core profit growth of a -1% CAGR over the next three years.Based on the revised earnings forecasts and updated macroeconomic assumptions, we derive a new fair value of Bt9.20, using a required return of 10.3% (previously Bt11.50 and 8.2%, respectively).

Thai Union Group - 2Q25E Profit to Decline YoY but Increase QoQ

<ul><li>1Q25 operating profit declined 39% YoY and 42% QoQ, coming in 19% below expectations due to lower-than- expected sales and higher-than-expected operating expenses to sales, which more than offset the better- than-expected GPM.</li><li>Based on the valuation metrics, the short- and long-term fundamental view has been revised to buy (previously undervalued), reflecting 14% upside to the current share price.</li><li>The long-term growth outlook is revised to weak (previously viewed as poor). The tactical view is now limited downside risk (previously very limited upside risk). </li></ul>

1Q25 operating profit declined 39% YoY and 42% QoQ, coming in 19% below expectations due to lower-than- expected sales and higher-than-expected operating expenses to sales, which more than offset the better- than-expected GPM.Based on the valuation metrics, the short- and long-term fundamental view has been revised to buy (previously undervalued), reflecting 14% upside to the current share price.The long-term growth outlook is revised to weak (previously viewed as poor). The tactical view is now limited downside risk (previously very limited upside risk). 

Thai Union Group - Downbeat 1Q25 Earnings

<ul><li>1Q25E core profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, weaker than previously anticipated.</li><li>To reflect the downward revision of ITC estimates and the risk from US trade tariffs, we have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by an average of 14% per year.</li><li>As a result, the core earnings per share (EPS) growth outlook over the next three years is projected to increase by only 0.4% per year.</li></ul>

1Q25E core profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, weaker than previously anticipated.To reflect the downward revision of ITC estimates and the risk from US trade tariffs, we have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by an average of 14% per year.As a result, the core earnings per share (EPS) growth outlook over the next three years is projected to increase by only 0.4% per year.

Thai Union Group - Weaker-Than-Expected 1Q25E Earnings/2025-27E Earnings Forecasts Revised Down

Thailand

Thai Union Group is a global producer of seafood-based products, specializing in ambient (shelf-stable), frozen, and chilled seafood, as well as pet care items and value-added products. The company's key products include canned tuna, frozen shrimp, sardines, and mackerel, distributed globally under a portfolio of leading brands. Thai Union Group is headquartered in Samut Sakhon, Thailand, and was founded in 1977.

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Thai Union Group (TU-R TB)

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25E Profit Expected To Have Dropped YoY...

Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an Underperform rating, reflecting current fundamentals and a long-term growth outlook in line with peers.

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings; Still Challenging in 2H25E

2Q25 profit came in above expectations, driven by a better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-expected operating expenses.

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group - 2Q25E Profit to Decline YoY but Increase QoQ

Based on the revised earnings forecasts and updated macroeconomic assumptions, we derive a new fair value of Bt9.20, using a required return of...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group - Downbeat 1Q25 Earnings

1Q25 operating profit declined 39% YoY and 42% QoQ, coming in 19% below expectations due to lower-than- expected sales and higher-than-expected...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group - Weaker-Than-Expected 1Q25E Earnings/2025-27E Earnings Forecasts Revised Down

To reflect the downward revision of ITC estimates and the risk from US trade tariffs, we have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by an...

Krungthai XSpring

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