Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Based on our analysis, if trade negotiations with the US proceed as Thailand hopes — enabling the import of corn and soybean meal from the US at lower costs for use as animal feed — and if there are no GMO-related barriers to Thai chicken exports, it is expected to benefit Thai livestock producers through improved margins from lower feed input costs and enhanced long-term competitiveness.</li><li>Our study indicates that CPF would benefit the most in absolute value, while mid-sized players like BTG and TFG are likely to see the most positive impact on the 2026E profit estimates.</li><li>GFPT would experience the largest increase in its gross profit margin (GPM) relative to its base case. </li></ul>

Based on our analysis, if trade negotiations with the US proceed as Thailand hopes — enabling the import of corn and soybean meal from the US at lower costs for use as animal feed — and if there are no GMO-related barriers to Thai chicken exports, it is expected to benefit Thai livestock producers through improved margins from lower feed input costs and enhanced long-term competitiveness.Our study indicates that CPF would benefit the most in absolute value, while mid-sized players like BTG and TFG are likely to see the most positive impact on the 2026E profit estimates.GFPT would experience the largest increase in its gross profit margin (GPM) relative to its base case. 

Industry Update - Will the Meat Sector Benefit from US Tariffs?

<ul><li>Outlook for 2Q25E: Profit for the meat sector is expected to improve QoQ and increase YoY, especially for companies with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and the region.</li><li>These companies are expected to maintain strong profit margins QoQ, supported by rising meat prices YoY and QoQ and lower raw material costs.</li><li>Given that CPF and TFG’s 1Q25 profits exceeded expectations due to significantly higher-than-expected GPMs, we have revised up our 2025-27E profit forecasts by an average of 11% and 5% per year, respectively. </li></ul>

Outlook for 2Q25E: Profit for the meat sector is expected to improve QoQ and increase YoY, especially for companies with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and the region.These companies are expected to maintain strong profit margins QoQ, supported by rising meat prices YoY and QoQ and lower raw material costs.Given that CPF and TFG’s 1Q25 profits exceeded expectations due to significantly higher-than-expected GPMs, we have revised up our 2025-27E profit forecasts by an average of 11% and 5% per year, respectively. 

Industry Update: Agro & Food Industry - MAY 30, 2025

<ul><li>With strong momentum in broiler and swine prices and declining raw material costs supporting sustained margin improvement, we expect earnings to grow YoY or remain stable or increase QoQ (except for GFPT, where profit may decline QoQ due to a one-off gain in 1Q25).</li><li>We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and the region.</li><li>Among them, we highlight TFG (Outperform; TP Bt5.85) as our top pick based on attractive valuation metrics. </li></ul>

With strong momentum in broiler and swine prices and declining raw material costs supporting sustained margin improvement, we expect earnings to grow YoY or remain stable or increase QoQ (except for GFPT, where profit may decline QoQ due to a one-off gain in 1Q25).We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and the region.Among them, we highlight TFG (Outperform; TP Bt5.85) as our top pick based on attractive valuation metrics. 

Industry Update Agro & Food Industry - May 21, 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Brent crude fell nearly 1% after Saudi Arabia increased crude supply available for sale.</li><li>The THB strengthened to Bt33.27/USD, which should support foreign fund inflows.</li><li>The September 2026 semiannual FTSE Global Equity Index review will take effect early next week, with THAI and TU newly added to the Small Cap Index.</li></ul>

Brent crude fell nearly 1% after Saudi Arabia increased crude supply available for sale.The THB strengthened to Bt33.27/USD, which should support foreign fund inflows.The September 2026 semiannual FTSE Global Equity Index review will take effect early next week, with THAI and TU newly added to the Small Cap Index.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 18, 2026

<ul><li>The US has announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on its global trade partners. In the worst-case scenario, Thailand may face a tariff rate of 36%.</li><li>The initial estimate indicates that this could cause Thailand's exports and overall economy in 2025E to grow at a lower rate, by -4.93 ppt and -3.16 ppt, respectively.</li><li>This poses downside risk to the 12-month SET Index target, potentially decreasing it by approximately 16.67% to 1,111 points. </li></ul>

The US has announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on its global trade partners. In the worst-case scenario, Thailand may face a tariff rate of 36%.The initial estimate indicates that this could cause Thailand's exports and overall economy in 2025E to grow at a lower rate, by -4.93 ppt and -3.16 ppt, respectively.This poses downside risk to the 12-month SET Index target, potentially decreasing it by approximately 16.67% to 1,111 points. 

Special Report: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - APRIL 11, 2025

Thailand

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited is a multinational seafood processing and exporting company, recognized as one of the world's largest producers of shelf-stable tuna products. The company offers a diverse portfolio of frozen, canned, and value-added seafood, including tuna, shrimp, sardines, mackerel, and salmon, along with pet food products, under various global brands such as Chicken of the Sea and John West. Thai Union Group is headquartered in Samut Sakhon, Thailand, and was founded in 1977.

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Thai Union Group (TU TB)

Industry Update - Will the Meat Sector Benefit from US Tariffs?

We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and highlight TFG as the most attractive pick based on the valuation metrics (Outperform; FV = Bt5.95).

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Agro & Food Industry - MAY 30, 2025

Outlook for 2Q25E: Profit for the meat sector is expected to improve QoQ and increase YoY, especially for companies with swine businesses in...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update Agro & Food Industry - May 21, 2025

We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 18, 2026

Brent crude fell nearly 1% after Saudi Arabia increased crude supply available for sale. The THB strengthened to Bt33.27/USD, which should support...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - APRIL 11, 2025

The US has announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on its global trade partners. In the worst-case scenario, Thailand may face a tariff...

Krungthai XSpring

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