Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Numerous New Year developments suggest markets are heading towards a world where the worst of the Covid might be behind us and a better growth trajectory awaits</li>
<li>Yields have moved higher, airlines &amp; transport have performed well, Oil is up, and some Asian markets have started to rebound or breakout – Australia, Vietnam &amp; India as examples</li>
<li>This brings Thailand in focus as one of the major tourist destinations. The charts below show the breakouts and potential trends at work</li>
</ul>


Numerous New Year developments suggest markets are heading towards a world where the worst of the Covid might be behind us and a better growth trajectory awaits
Yields have moved higher, airlines &amp; transport have performed well, Oil is up, and some Asian markets have started to rebound or breakout – Australia, Vietnam &amp; India as examples
This brings Thailand in focus as one of the major tourist destinations. The charts below show the breakouts and potential trends at work


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p>We have been bullish/long the DXY from 89 and more recently from 92 with a target at 94.00-50 and the level to sell the USD and turn short the greenback. Early USD shorts touted in CAD and GBP.</p><p>US 10yr rise to 1.50% call to support a final USD push into our sell zone. USD will also find a final bid on a secondary pullback in the US equity cycle (EM and Asia FX) in October.</p><p>We see synergy with yield near 1.50% and a DXY top near 94.</p><p>DXY bear divergence is maturing into a final drive to the 94+ zone. We want to sell the next USD push/new high.</p>

We have been bullish/long the DXY from 89 and more recently from 92 with a target at 94.00-50 and the level to sell the USD and turn short the greenback. Early USD shorts touted in CAD and GBP.US 10yr rise to 1.50% call to support a final USD push into our sell zone. USD will also find a final bid on a secondary pullback in the US equity cycle (EM and Asia FX) in October.We see synergy with yield near 1.50% and a DXY top near 94.DXY bear divergence is maturing into a final drive to the 94+ zone. We want to sell the next USD push/new high.

<div>DXY – Call for a DXY ST top near 93/92.70 to lock in some gains and work into select USD shorts for a pullback to 91.50 with risk to 91, to add back to USD longs and resume the rise targeting 94.</div><div></div><div>Timing risk: Pullback sequence should take the form of an elevated choppy pullback.</div><div></div><div>Next phase of the USD rise needs the 10yr to bottom near 1.37% support and start a fresh up cycle in yields.</div>

DXY – Call for a DXY ST top near 93/92.70 to lock in some gains and work into select USD shorts for a pullback to 91.50 with risk to 91, to add back to USD longs and resume the rise targeting 94.Timing risk: Pullback sequence should take the form of an elevated choppy pullback.Next phase of the USD rise needs the 10yr to bottom near 1.37% support and start a fresh up cycle in yields.

<p>Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.</p><p>Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.</p>

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

<p>DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.</p><p>The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.</p>

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

Thailand

The Thai baht is the official currency of Thailand. 

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THB (USDTHB CURNCY)

Thailand – Another Asian Break

The Thai stock market shows a breakout while the currency is starting the year on a positive footing. Gains of some 9%-10% could be on the horizon...

Shyam Devani

USD DXY 94 Sell Target

We have been bullish/long the DXY from 89 and more recently from 92 with a target at 94.00-50 and the level to sell the USD and turn short the...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Long Trim with Fresh Buy Levels

DXY – Call for a DXY ST top near 93/92.70 to lock in some gains and work into select USD shorts for a pullback to 91.50 with risk to 91, to add...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Buy Levels to Sync with Peak in Risk

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a...

Thomas Schroeder

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

USD is a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar will shift gears (more bullish) after a...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

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