Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats, Moat Investing

Moat Investing

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats

We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by doing deep dive on valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.

GARP with strong economic moats

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Disney is currently overvalued, but that changes to structure might unlock future value for the Disney Direct-to-Consumer segment.</li>
<li>Disney+’s limited content library can be the cause of disappointing subscriber growth when compared to Netflix's metrics.</li>
<li>Our analysis shows that comparing Disney DTC to Netflix is not sustainable given Disney's limited content library, that much focuses on Marvel and Star Wars, compared to Netflix's wider range.</li>
</ul>


We believe Disney is currently overvalued, but that changes to structure might unlock future value for the Disney Direct-to-Consumer segment.
Disney+’s limited content library can be the cause of disappointing subscriber growth when compared to Netflix's metrics.
Our analysis shows that comparing Disney DTC to Netflix is not sustainable given Disney's limited content library, that much focuses on Marvel and Star Wars, compared to Netflix's wider range.


Comparing Disney+ Valuation Multiples To Netflix's

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>The company has obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO.
The company has obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Trading - One of the Lowest Insti Subscriptions Yet

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

The Walt Disney Co / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>It has been a year of recovery for the Walt Disney Company, as it made great strides in reopening its theme parks and cruise businesses while also taking meaningful and innovative steps to position itself for continued long-term growth.</li><li>On the direct-to-consumer side, the company has seen excellent success in its portfolio streaming services, Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ continued to perform extraordinarily well with 118.1 million, 43.8 million, and 17.1 million subscribers, correspondingly, for a sum of 179 million subscriptions.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

It has been a year of recovery for the Walt Disney Company, as it made great strides in reopening its theme parks and cruise businesses while also taking meaningful and innovative steps to position itself for continued long-term growth.On the direct-to-consumer side, the company has seen excellent success in its portfolio streaming services, Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ continued to perform extraordinarily well with 118.1 million, 43.8 million, and 17.1 million subscribers, correspondingly, for a sum of 179 million subscriptions.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, now plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates from the revised PHIP filing and relook at valuations.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, now plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.
In this note, we will talk about the updates from the revised PHIP filing and relook at valuations.


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Revised PHIP Updates, Along with Revised Valuation

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<div><p>We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div></div></div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

United States

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

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The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Comparing Disney+ Valuation Multiples To Netflix's

We believe Disney is currently overvalued, but that changes to structure might unlock future value for the Disney Direct-to-Consumer...

Moat Investing

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Trading - One of the Lowest Insti Subscriptions Yet

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading...

Sumeet Singh

Walt Disney Co - Investment Thesis

It has been a year of recovery for the Walt Disney Company, as it made great strides in reopening its theme parks and cruise businesses while also...

Baptista Research

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Revised PHIP Updates, Along with Revised Valuation

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, now plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Netflix 3Q21: Saved By Squid Game

Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix...and now we return to the sidelines. We need greater...

Aaron Gabin

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