Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>They say bad things come in threes. First, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/therapeuticsmd-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18482:1" rel="noopener">TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)</a>'s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.</li>
<li>The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.</li>
<li>Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.</li>
</ul>


They say bad things come in threes. First, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)announced TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)'s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.
The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.
Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be &lt;16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  </li>
<li>However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises "from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.</li>
</ul>


On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be &lt;16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  
However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises "from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause

<ul>
<li>On the 21st Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, a leader in dermatology and women’s health, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250221/pdf/06frs9hcfc6v05.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed</a> with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.</li>
<li>Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne's two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.</li>
<li>Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. </li>
</ul>


On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne's two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. 


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo received EU approval for Enhertu in breast cancer. Kaken Pharmaceutical in-licensed hereditary angioedema drug candidate sebetralstat for Japan from KalVista Pharmaceuticals for an upfront payment of $11M.</li>
<li>ABL Bio signed £2B+ outlicensing licensing deal with GSK to develop novel medicines for neurodegenerative diseases. Samsung Biologics launched Epysqli, a biosimilar referencing Soliris in the U.S.</li>
<li>U.S. court ruled in favor of Sun Pharma regarding the launch of alopecia areata drug Leqselvi. Mayne Pharma has been involved in a legal proceeding in U.S., brought by TherapeuticsMD.</li>
</ul>


Daiichi Sankyo received EU approval for Enhertu in breast cancer. Kaken Pharmaceutical in-licensed hereditary angioedema drug candidate sebetralstat for Japan from KalVista Pharmaceuticals for an upfront payment of $11M.
ABL Bio signed £2B+ outlicensing licensing deal with GSK to develop novel medicines for neurodegenerative diseases. Samsung Biologics launched Epysqli, a biosimilar referencing Soliris in the U.S.
U.S. court ruled in favor of Sun Pharma regarding the launch of alopecia areata drug Leqselvi. Mayne Pharma has been involved in a legal proceeding in U.S., brought by TherapeuticsMD.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 13)- Daiichi Sankyo, Kaken, ABL Bio, Samsung Biologics, Sun Pharma

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TherapeuticsMD has shifted to a healthcare royalty model through a licensing agreement with Mayne Pharmaceuticals</li><li>Downside risk is minimized by a minimum payment obligation in the agreement, with potential for significant upside</li><li>Despite near-term uncertainties, the company has access to additional funding and presents a compelling investment opportunity at its current stock price.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

TherapeuticsMD has shifted to a healthcare royalty model through a licensing agreement with Mayne PharmaceuticalsDownside risk is minimized by a minimum payment obligation in the agreement, with potential for significant upsideDespite near-term uncertainties, the company has access to additional funding and presents a compelling investment opportunity at its current stock price.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Therapeuticsmd, Inc. (TXMD) - Thursday, May 23, 2024

United States

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on creating safe and effective branded and generic prescription, and over-the-counter products targeted exclusively for women. The Company develops three advanced hormone replacement products designed to alleviate the symptoms of and reduce the health risks resulting from menopause-related hormone deficiencies.

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TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

The FDA letter does not appear a material issue. And shares (before the open) are just 6% above undisturbed levels. On balance, this is a buy. A...

David Blennerhassett

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause

Due to a key exemption, the executive order is unlikely to trigger the MAC clause. Budding retail opposition will be tempered by this order. At the...

Arun George

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy

Mayne has revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. Trading at a 5.1%/27.1% gross/annualised...

David Blennerhassett

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 13)- Daiichi Sankyo, Kaken, ABL Bio, Samsung Biologics, Sun Pharma

Daiichi got EU approval for Enhertu. Kaken Pharma signed inlicensing deal, while ABL stuck outlicensing deal. Sun Pharma's Leqselvi is now free to...

Tina Banerjee

Therapeuticsmd, Inc. (TXMD) - Thursday, May 23, 2024

Despite near-term uncertainties, the company has access to additional funding and presents a compelling investment opportunity at its current stock...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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