Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vulcan Energy Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vulcan-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30774:1" rel="noopener">Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> will be deleted from the index.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vulcan-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30774:1" rel="noopener">Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tronox-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6778:1" rel="noopener">Tronox Holdings (TROX US)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) will be deleted from the index.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.
The largest inflows will be in Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) and Tronox Holdings (TROX US). 


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> scheme meeting relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.</li>
<li>The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  </li>
<li>Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. </li>
</ul>


The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> has launched its H Share listing at HK$32.30-36.30 per share. Pricing will be on 25 November, and the listing on 27 November.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-holding-h-share-listing-updates-point-to-improving-fundamentals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:166296" rel="noopener">SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-holding-h-share-listing-ah-discount-views" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:166687" rel="noopener">SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate in the listing.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has launched its H Share listing at HK$32.30-36.30 per share. Pricing will be on 25 November, and the listing on 27 November.
We previously discussed the listing in SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals and SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate in the listing.


SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-holding-h-share-listing-updates-point-to-improving-fundamentals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:166296" rel="noopener">SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals</a>, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
In SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.
In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.


SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-2460-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162418" rel="noopener">CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.


China

Tianqi Lithium Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells lithium products. The Company produces lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, lithium hydroxide, and other related products. Tianqi Lithium markets its products worldwide.

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Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Vulcan Energy is an add and Tianqi Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the round-trip trade is US$37m. Vulcan is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Vulcan Energy is an add and Tianqi Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the round-trip trade is US$37m. Vulcan is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights

SF aims to raise gross proceeds of US$705-792m. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate...

Arun George

SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

SF Holding is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion. In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H...

Arun George

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes