Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li><li>This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.</li><li>It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li></ul>

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

Index Rebalance

<ul><li>Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February.</li><li>The three largest additions to the World Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Samsara A (USA), Corebridge Financial (USA) and Applovin Corp A (USA)</li><li>The three largest additions to the Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Midea Group Co A (HK-C) (China), Punjab National Bank (India) and Union Bank Of India (India)</li></ul>

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February.The three largest additions to the World Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Samsara A (USA), Corebridge Financial (USA) and Applovin Corp A (USA)The three largest additions to the Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Midea Group Co A (HK-C) (China), Punjab National Bank (India) and Union Bank Of India (India)

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

<ul><li>We do not expect any constituent changes for the following indices: Top 40, Top 40 SWIX, FINI, FINDI or INDI.</li><li>HAR is expected to enter the RESI and AMS is expected to fall out.</li><li>After much anticipation, ANG’s indicative free float came in at 75%, 21.9 percentage points lower than the current SWIX float of 96.8%.</li></ul>

We do not expect any constituent changes for the following indices: Top 40, Top 40 SWIX, FINI, FINDI or INDI.HAR is expected to enter the RESI and AMS is expected to fall out.After much anticipation, ANG’s indicative free float came in at 75%, 21.9 percentage points lower than the current SWIX float of 96.8%.

DMA ONE: JSE December ‘23 Rebalance Rankings

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

South Africa

Tiger Brands Limited manufactures, processes, and distributes food products which include milling and baking, confectioneries, general foods, edible oils, and derivatives.

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Tiger Brands (TBS SJ)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks. This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of...

DMA

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February. The three largest additions to the World Index measured by...

DMA

DMA ONE: JSE December ‘23 Rebalance Rankings

The Week Ahead, NPN x PRX discount update post Tencent results, trading statements released after close yesterday. We do not expect any constituent...

DMA

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

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