Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This smaller Thai bank can more easily grow due to relatively small loan base</li>
<li>Strong core fundamentals of rising interest income and falling funding costs</li>
<li>Credit costs remain inflated, falling figures can support strong ROA growth</li>
</ul>


This smaller Thai bank can more easily grow due to relatively small loan base
Strong core fundamentals of rising interest income and falling funding costs
Credit costs remain inflated, falling figures can support strong ROA growth


Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We initiate coverage of TISCO with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt106. Our valuation is derived from a Gordon growth model (ROE 17.5%, growth 2%),implying 2.0x PBV’22E</li>
<li>Moderate net profit growth at 6% CAGR in 2022-24 on a potential reduction in credit cost and higher NIM</li>
<li>Loans will likely pick up in 2022 with a focus on high-yield loans.  Resilient asset quality and high loan loss reserves against uncertainties</li>
</ul>


We initiate coverage of TISCO with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt106. Our valuation is derived from a Gordon growth model (ROE 17.5%, growth 2%),implying 2.0x PBV’22E
Moderate net profit growth at 6% CAGR in 2022-24 on a potential reduction in credit cost and higher NIM
Loans will likely pick up in 2022 with a focus on high-yield loans.  Resilient asset quality and high loan loss reserves against uncertainties


TISCO: Quality Growth with a High Dividend Payment

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


<ul>
<li>TCAP's market capitalization remains well below early FY20 unlike peers</li>
<li>Returns are substantial at TCAP and these should rise further</li>
<li>There are few banks that compare with its 8% dividend yield</li>
</ul>


TCAP's market capitalization remains well below early FY20 unlike peers
Returns are substantial at TCAP and these should rise further
There are few banks that compare with its 8% dividend yield


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SET conducted a market consultation in September/October and amended the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> index methodology earlier this month. These changes could see an extra 'targeted' deletion from the index.</li>
<li>The review period ends today and we see two high probability inclusions which means there will be at least two deletions. One of the deletions is a high probability name.</li>
<li>The changes should be announced mid-December and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 December.</li>
</ul>


SET conducted a market consultation in September/October and amended the SET50 INDEX index methodology earlier this month. These changes could see an extra 'targeted' deletion from the index.
The review period ends today and we see two high probability inclusions which means there will be at least two deletions. One of the deletions is a high probability name.
The changes should be announced mid-December and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 December.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Revised Methodology & Potential Changes

Thailand

Tisco Financial Group Pcl is a bank holding company.  The Company's banking subsidiary offers working capital, project, term, automobile and home loans; custodian services; securities brokerage; mutual funds; and private banking; and advises on equity and debt capital markets, privatizations, debt restructuring, project finance, and mergers and acquisitions.

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Tisco Financial Group (TISCO TB)

KKP - Small Enough To Grow

KKP remains well smaller than all the largest Thai banks, so can more easily grow. This is coming through in far better loan growth figures, even...

Daniel Tabbush

TISCO: Quality Growth with a High Dividend Payment

We initiate coverage of TISCO with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt106. Our valuation is derived from a Gordon growth model (ROE 17.5%, growth...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

TCAP - Concerns Oversized?

TCAP continues to see market capitulation well below early FY20, unlike Thai banks, despite its exceptionally high 8% dividend yield and ROA of...

Daniel Tabbush

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Revised Methodology & Potential Changes

TIDLOR and BANPU are high probability inclusions to the SET50 in Dec while STA is a high probability deletion. DELTA and BJC could be deletes on...

Brian Freitas

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