Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, contrary to both our and the market’s expectations.</li><li>This reduction negatively impacts the 2025-27E earnings forecasts for the commercial banking sector by approximately 2-3%.</li><li>However, smaller banks will benefit as their loan portfolios are primarily based on fixed interest rates and have a higher proportion of fixed deposits, while larger banks will be more negatively affected. </li></ul>

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, contrary to both our and the market’s expectations.This reduction negatively impacts the 2025-27E earnings forecasts for the commercial banking sector by approximately 2-3%.However, smaller banks will benefit as their loan portfolios are primarily based on fixed interest rates and have a higher proportion of fixed deposits, while larger banks will be more negatively affected. 

Industry Update: Banking - FEBRUARY 27, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to continue moving upward, with the resistance at 1,240/1,247 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,227/1,220 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend within a zig-zag down pattern, searching for the bottom within the range of 1,187-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the market has entered a brief rally phase after forming a reversal pattern yesterday. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to continue moving upward, with the resistance at 1,240/1,247 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,227/1,220 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend within a zig-zag down pattern, searching for the bottom within the range of 1,187-1,506 points.In the short term, the market has entered a brief rally phase after forming a reversal pattern yesterday. 

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down with the support levels at 1,227/1,220 points and the resistance levels at 1,242 and 1,252 points.</li><li>In the medium term, it remains in a downtrend following a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for a bottom within the 1,200-1,506 point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index hit this year’s new low at 1,227.42 points yesterday, marking its lowest level in over four years and three months (vs. 1,214.49 points on Nov. 4, 2020), but a technical rebound occurred in the afternoon session, leaving the index with two possible scenarios: i) a rebound before resuming the downtrend, with a potential high at 1,260 points (10-day EMA); or ii) a continued decline, creating another new low in search of the bottom. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down with the support levels at 1,227/1,220 points and the resistance levels at 1,242 and 1,252 points.In the medium term, it remains in a downtrend following a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for a bottom within the 1,200-1,506 point range.In the short term, the index hit this year’s new low at 1,227.42 points yesterday, marking its lowest level in over four years and three months (vs. 1,214.49 points on Nov. 4, 2020), but a technical rebound occurred in the afternoon session, leaving the index with two possible scenarios: i) a rebound before resuming the downtrend, with a potential high at 1,260 points (10-day EMA); or ii) a continued decline, creating another new low in search of the bottom. 

KTX Zoom: Thai Trade Balance & Earnings Results - FEBRUARY 25, 2025

<ul><li>The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line with our expectations.</li><li>KKP and SCB outperformed expectations with net profits 21% and 19% higher than anticipated, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-interest income.</li><li>We maintain an Overweight investment rating on the banking sector, supported by a trend of declining provisioning expenses and a focus on capital management, which enhances the potential for dividend increases. </li></ul>

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line with our expectations.KKP and SCB outperformed expectations with net profits 21% and 19% higher than anticipated, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-interest income.We maintain an Overweight investment rating on the banking sector, supported by a trend of declining provisioning expenses and a focus on capital management, which enhances the potential for dividend increases. 

Banking - In-Line 4Q24 NP; Provisions to Fall in 2025E

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures</li>
<li>With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.</li>
<li>ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24</li>
</ul>


KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24


KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

Thailand

Tisco Financial Group Pcl is a bank holding company.  The Company's banking subsidiary offers working capital, project, term, automobile and home loans; custodian services; securities brokerage; mutual funds; and private banking; and advises on equity and debt capital markets, privatizations, debt restructuring, project finance, and mergers and acquisitions.

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Tisco Financial Group (TISCO TB)

Industry Update: Banking - FEBRUARY 27, 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, contrary to both our and the market’s expectations.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - FEBRUARY 27, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to continue moving upward, with the resistance at 1,240/1,247 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,227...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: Thai Trade Balance & Earnings Results - FEBRUARY 25, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down with the support levels at 1,227/1,220 points and the resistance levels at 1,242 and...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking - In-Line 4Q24 NP; Provisions to Fall in 2025E

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line...

Krungthai XSpring

KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

KTC reveals granular detail for many Bank of Thailand relief measures on consumer debt, suggesting that credit metrics are very weak, and this is...

Daniel Tabbush

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