Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), as the upside to our fair value (FV) has narrowed to just 4%.</li><li>Loan growth is projected to recover at +2.7% YoY and +0.7% QoQ, supported by retail lending—particularly auto hire purchase, in line with improving passenger car demand.</li><li>The dividend yield for 2H25 is 5.1% (XD: April 29, 2026), while the full-year 2026E yield is projected at 6.9%.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), as the upside to our fair value (FV) has narrowed to just 4%.Loan growth is projected to recover at +2.7% YoY and +0.7% QoQ, supported by retail lending—particularly auto hire purchase, in line with improving passenger car demand.The dividend yield for 2H25 is 5.1% (XD: April 29, 2026), while the full-year 2026E yield is projected at 6.9%.

TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP Plc. (TISCO): 1Q26E Earnings Expected To Edge Up YoY And QoQ

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to a 20-month high after markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 66%.</li><li>Thailand's economy expanded across nearly all sectors in September, driven by the technology cycle and support from government measures.</li><li>The SET's latest P/E stands at 16x, below its historical average by more than 1SD, making valuations increasingly attractive.</li></ul>

The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to a 20-month high after markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 66%.Thailand's economy expanded across nearly all sectors in September, driven by the technology cycle and support from government measures.The SET's latest P/E stands at 16x, below its historical average by more than 1SD, making valuations increasingly attractive.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 1, 2026

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to repurchase long-term bonds.</li><li>Commercial bank loans grew 0.1% MoM in July and 2.6% YTD, driven by stronger demand from both the private and public sectors.</li><li>We expect the SET Index to break below support at around 1,600 points due to external headwinds.</li></ul>

The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to repurchase long-term bonds.Commercial bank loans grew 0.1% MoM in July and 2.6% YTD, driven by stronger demand from both the private and public sectors.We expect the SET Index to break below support at around 1,600 points due to external headwinds.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 25, 2026

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating and a fair value of Bt117 based on PBV of 2.11x, implying ~6% upside.</li><li>Longterm growth remains above the industry average, supported by loan expansion, prudent asset-quality control, and efficient cost management.</li><li>TISCO reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt1,642mn (-3.5% YoY, -5.1% QoQ), broadly in line with expectations.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating and a fair value of Bt117 based on PBV of 2.11x, implying ~6% upside.Longterm growth remains above the industry average, supported by loan expansion, prudent asset-quality control, and efficient cost management.TISCO reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt1,642mn (-3.5% YoY, -5.1% QoQ), broadly in line with expectations.

TISCO Financial Group Plc. (TISCO): Earnings In Line; High Dividends Maintained

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a FV of Bt108.00, based on a PBV of 2.01x derived from a regression analysis.</li><li>Long-term growth is broadly in line with the industry, with net profit expected to post a –0.8% CAGR over 2025–27E, pressured by normalization of credit cost provisions after a period of excess reserves.</li><li>Tactical upside risk is limited as the stock trades above its 180-day average PBV; however, TISCO’s key attraction remains its high dividend yield, estimated at 7.2%.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a FV of Bt108.00, based on a PBV of 2.01x derived from a regression analysis.Long-term growth is broadly in line with the industry, with net profit expected to post a –0.8% CAGR over 2025–27E, pressured by normalization of credit cost provisions after a period of excess reserves.Tactical upside risk is limited as the stock trades above its 180-day average PBV; however, TISCO’s key attraction remains its high dividend yield, estimated at 7.2%.

TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP Plc. (TISCO): 4Q25E Profit To Decline YoY And QoQ

Thailand

TISCO Financial Group Public Co. Ltd. is a Thai financial services company operating through commercial banking, securities, asset management, and support businesses. It offers a wide range of products including retail and corporate loans, deposit products, investment services, and insurance. The company also provides investment banking, private banking, and wealth management services. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, TISCO was established in 1969 as Thailand's first investment bank.

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TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB)

TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP Plc. (TISCO): 1Q26E Earnings Expected To Edge Up YoY And QoQ

Loan growth is projected to recover at +2.7% YoY and +0.7% QoQ, supported by retail lending—particularly auto hire purchase, in line with improving...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 1, 2026

The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to a 20-month high after markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 66%. Thailand's...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 25, 2026

The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash...

Krungthai XSpring

TISCO Financial Group Plc. (TISCO): Earnings In Line; High Dividends Maintained

Longterm growth remains above the industry average, supported by loan expansion, prudent asset-quality control, and efficient cost management.

Krungthai XSpring

TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP Plc. (TISCO): 4Q25E Profit To Decline YoY And QoQ

Tactical upside risk is limited as the stock trades above its 180-day average PBV; however, TISCO’s key attraction remains its high dividend yield,...

Krungthai XSpring

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