Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest MPC meeting signaled that there is no urgency to cut the policy interest rate, despite pressures from the government or the downward revision of the inflation forecasts for 2024-25E to +0.4% and +1.1% (vs. the previous forecasts of +0.7% and +1.2%), which are only slightly above the lower bound of the MPC's inflation target range of 1-3%.</li><li>We anticipate that a rate cut would only occur if external risks escalate, such as a potential tax hike policy under a Trump 2.0 administration.</li><li>We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks being SCB, TTB, TISCO, and TLI.</li></ul>

The latest MPC meeting signaled that there is no urgency to cut the policy interest rate, despite pressures from the government or the downward revision of the inflation forecasts for 2024-25E to +0.4% and +1.1% (vs. the previous forecasts of +0.7% and +1.2%), which are only slightly above the lower bound of the MPC's inflation target range of 1-3%.We anticipate that a rate cut would only occur if external risks escalate, such as a potential tax hike policy under a Trump 2.0 administration.We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks being SCB, TTB, TISCO, and TLI.

Economic Update: Policy Interest Rate Maintained at 2.25% - DECEMBER 19, 2024

<ul><li>The latest debt relief measure, literally translated as 'You Fight, We Help,' is expected to benefit all parties involved.</li><li>Vulnerable debtors will have the opportunity to reduce installment payments and ease interest burdens, while banks will see improvements in asset quality.</li><li>Ultimately, this measure aims to help alleviate the overall household debt burden. We estimate that small and medium-sized banks are likely to benefit more significantly, although the extent will depend on the number of debtors registering for the program. </li></ul>

The latest debt relief measure, literally translated as 'You Fight, We Help,' is expected to benefit all parties involved.Vulnerable debtors will have the opportunity to reduce installment payments and ease interest burdens, while banks will see improvements in asset quality.Ultimately, this measure aims to help alleviate the overall household debt burden. We estimate that small and medium-sized banks are likely to benefit more significantly, although the extent will depend on the number of debtors registering for the program. 

Banking DECEMBER 13, 2024 - Small and Medium-Sized Banks to Benefit from New Debt Relief Measure

<ul><li>KTX holds a positive view of the new household debt relief measures, as they help reduce principal amounts and long-term debt burdens.</li><li>This is expected to have a favorable impact on asset quality and ease future provisioning pressures.</li><li>These measures are particularly beneficial for small and medium-sized banks with a high proportion of retail loan portfolios. Recommendations include KKP, TTB, and TISCO.</li></ul>

KTX holds a positive view of the new household debt relief measures, as they help reduce principal amounts and long-term debt burdens.This is expected to have a favorable impact on asset quality and ease future provisioning pressures.These measures are particularly beneficial for small and medium-sized banks with a high proportion of retail loan portfolios. Recommendations include KKP, TTB, and TISCO.

Banking - New Household Debt Relief Measure: A Positive Outlook for Small and Medium-Sized Banks

<ul><li>The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our expectations.</li><li>This was due to: I) BBL’s better-than-expected non-interest income (NII) from mark-to-market investment gains, and ii) lower-than-expected provisions from SCB and KKP.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the banking sector, as the short-term growth drivers remain unclear. </li></ul>

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our expectations.This was due to: I) BBL’s better-than-expected non-interest income (NII) from mark-to-market investment gains, and ii) lower-than-expected provisions from SCB and KKP.We maintain a Neutral rating on the banking sector, as the short-term growth drivers remain unclear. 

Banking Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings but a Lack of Short-Term Catalysts - OCTOBER 28, 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating and our 12M FV of Bt2.00, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 11.3%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the stock has 9.5% upside from its fair value.</li><li>The long-term growth is expected to be moderate, and the tactical risk remains neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating and our 12M FV of Bt2.00, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 11.3%.The valuation metrics indicate that the stock has 9.5% upside from its fair value.The long-term growth is expected to be moderate, and the tactical risk remains neutral.

Tmbthanachart Bank - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings Results

Thailand

TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services. The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, and investment banking services to its customers throughout Thailand.  It also has branches in Hong Kong, Laos, and Cayman Island.

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TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB)

Economic Update: Policy Interest Rate Maintained at 2.25% - DECEMBER 19, 2024

We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking DECEMBER 13, 2024 - Small and Medium-Sized Banks to Benefit from New Debt Relief Measure

Vulnerable debtors will have the opportunity to reduce installment payments and ease interest burdens, while banks will see improvements in asset...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking - New Household Debt Relief Measure: A Positive Outlook for Small and Medium-Sized Banks

KTX holds a positive view of the new household debt relief measures, as they help reduce principal amounts and long-term debt burdens.

Krungthai XSpring

Banking Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings but a Lack of Short-Term Catalysts - OCTOBER 28, 2024

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our...

Krungthai XSpring

Tmbthanachart Bank - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings Results

We maintain a Neutral rating and our 12M FV of Bt2.00, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 11.3%.

Krungthai XSpring

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