Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The seven commercial banks we are monitoring reported a combined net profit of Bt53.5bn in 2Q24, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.2% QoQ.</li><li>Overall, loan growth remained stagnant as banks continued to operate cautiously.</li><li>Meanwhile, net interest margins (NIM) faced pressure, albeit to a lesser extent, from the repricing of fixed deposits. </li></ul>

The seven commercial banks we are monitoring reported a combined net profit of Bt53.5bn in 2Q24, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.2% QoQ.Overall, loan growth remained stagnant as banks continued to operate cautiously.Meanwhile, net interest margins (NIM) faced pressure, albeit to a lesser extent, from the repricing of fixed deposits. 

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX expects the MPC to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50% throughout the rest of this year based on the latest resolution of the MPC, with support increasing from 5 to 6 votes to maintain the current rate.</li><li>This interest rate level aligns with the overall economic conditions.</li><li>The Thai economy has shown signs of improvement, particularly in terms of state investment and private consumption.</li></ul>

KTX expects the MPC to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50% throughout the rest of this year based on the latest resolution of the MPC, with support increasing from 5 to 6 votes to maintain the current rate.This interest rate level aligns with the overall economic conditions.The Thai economy has shown signs of improvement, particularly in terms of state investment and private consumption.

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Rates at 2.50%

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380/1,372 points.</li><li>The index may rebound to 1,416/1,438 points again after it was able to reverse and breach the resistance at 1,390 points, forming a higher high and higher low pattern.</li><li>There is risk of the index returning to a downward direction again if it closes below the key support at 1,380 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380/1,372 points.The index may rebound to 1,416/1,438 points again after it was able to reverse and breach the resistance at 1,390 points, forming a higher high and higher low pattern.There is risk of the index returning to a downward direction again if it closes below the key support at 1,380 points.

Wait for Thailand’s 4Q23 GDP (Monday Morning) And U. Of Michigan Survey in US Tonight

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are positive on Bank Ayudhya; it ranks top in terms of pre-provision and second in post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on credit quality metrics and valuations</li>
<li>We also like TMBThanchart, with its further improvement in 3Q22 cost of risk and incrementally better pre-provision returns</li>
<li>Krung Thai remains attractive on valuations and on our returns and credit quality screens, but is, in our view, less compelling than Ayudhya and TMBThanchart</li>
</ul>


We are positive on Bank Ayudhya; it ranks top in terms of pre-provision and second in post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on credit quality metrics and valuations
We also like TMBThanchart, with its further improvement in 3Q22 cost of risk and incrementally better pre-provision returns
Krung Thai remains attractive on valuations and on our returns and credit quality screens, but is, in our view, less compelling than Ayudhya and TMBThanchart


Thai Banks 3Q22 Screener; Bank Ayudhya Stands Out

Thailand

TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services. The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, and investment banking services to its customers throughout Thailand.  It also has branches in Hong Kong, Laos, and Cayman Island.

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TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB)

Industry Update - Banking: Jul 23, 2024

The seven commercial banks we are monitoring reported a combined net profit of Bt53.5bn in 2Q24, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.2% QoQ.

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Rates at 2.50%

This interest rate level aligns with the overall economic conditions. The Thai economy has shown signs of improvement, particularly in terms of...

Krungthai XSpring

Wait for Thailand’s 4Q23 GDP (Monday Morning) And U. Of Michigan Survey in US Tonight

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380...

Krungthai XSpring

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Thai Banks 3Q22 Screener; Bank Ayudhya Stands Out

Of the Thai banks, Bank Ayudhya screens best on a blend of returns, credit quality & valuations; TMB Thanachart returns are improving and Krung...

Victor Galliano

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