Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model forecast the growth of these factors to 2030 and has valuable insight as to where consumers will exit poverty and enter the middle class over the forecast period. For consumer finance, these consumers that are recent additions to the middle class will represent a sizeable and bankable population. Companies that invest early and establish brand loyalty with these consumers will very likely benefit over the forecast period</p>

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model forecast the growth of these factors to 2030 and has valuable insight as to where consumers will exit poverty and enter the middle class over the forecast period. For consumer finance, these consumers that are recent additions to the middle class will represent a sizeable and bankable population. Companies that invest early and establish brand loyalty with these consumers will very likely benefit over the forecast period

Markets Expected to Lower Poverty Rate the Most by 2030

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/money-matters-turkey-on-the-brink" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7953">Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?</a>). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?</p><p>Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…</p>

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>In our first note for </em>2017<em> we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the </em>Trump-effect<em> on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.</em></p>

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div>We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style.</div></li>
<li><div>Extrapolation remains the default forecasting tool for most professional opinion and Japan has been a case in point over the past 18mths.</div></li>
<li><div>The USDJPY saw its biggest two-week move since 1988 post the US election, as quant funds retreated from record speculative long positions.</div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">Foreign investors bought almost $8bn of Japanese stocks in the past two weeks, reducing their net selling</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style.
Extrapolation remains the default forecasting tool for most professional opinion and Japan has been a case in point over the past 18mths.
The USDJPY saw its biggest two-week move since 1988 post the US election, as quant funds retreated from record speculative long positions.

Foreign investors bought almost $8bn of Japanese stocks in the past two weeks, reducing their net selling…


Consensus Rethinks Japan, as Serial Extrapolation Proves Costly

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

<p>"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks.  The question tends to arise much more during cyclical downturns, as investors reassess their holdings.  Japan's lukewarm economic expansion as well as uncertainty surrounding events overseas still compel investors to justify their Japan allocation with a sound investment thesis, even if there are no imminent plans for portfolio reallocation.  </p><p>As in the first installment of the series, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/why-hold-japan-part-i-relative-tax-regimes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6854">Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes</a> , we once again focus on comparative metrics within the world's largest developed economies.  This time, we focus upon relative growth cycles and comparative valuation among G7 bourses.  On the macroeconomic side, we find Japan far less of an under-performer than it was at its cyclical trough in 2011-2012.  Aggregate index valuation metrics meanwhile show valuations in Japan to be far less inflated than in 2006 (mid expansion cycle) or 2011 (mid contraction cycle), while Return on Equity is much more in line with its G7 counterparts than in either of these historical periods.  There remain signals of greater longer-term under-valuation of smaller listed firms in particular among TOPIX constituents.</p>

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks.  The question tends to arise much more during cyclical downturns, as investors reassess their holdings.  Japan's lukewarm economic expansion as well as uncertainty surrounding events overseas still compel investors to justify their Japan allocation with a sound investment thesis, even if there are no imminent plans for portfolio reallocation.  As in the first installment of the series, Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes , we once again focus on comparative metrics within the world's largest developed economies.  This time, we focus upon relative growth cycles and comparative valuation among G7 bourses.  On the macroeconomic side, we find Japan far less of an under-performer than it was at its cyclical trough in 2011-2012.  Aggregate index valuation metrics meanwhile show valuations in Japan to be far less inflated than in 2006 (mid expansion cycle) or 2011 (mid contraction cycle), while Return on Equity is much more in line with its G7 counterparts than in either of these historical periods.  There remain signals of greater longer-term under-valuation of smaller listed firms in particular among TOPIX constituents.

Why Hold Japan, Part II: Comparative Valuation Among G7 Economies

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

Markets Expected to Lower Poverty Rate the Most by 2030

Euromonitor International’s Wealth and Income distribution model looks at 50 markets through a measure of income and accumulated wealth. Our model...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey...

Stewart Paterson

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

Consensus Rethinks Japan, as Serial Extrapolation Proves Costly

We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style. Extrapolation remains the...

Sean Maher

Why Hold Japan, Part II: Comparative Valuation Among G7 Economies

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks. The question tends...

Naomi Fink

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