Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> is a relatively small cross-border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥64.7bn last year.</li>
<li>The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in start-ups mainly in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.</li>
<li>Down below, we analyse the impact on Beenos’ valuation following GOTO’s impending IPO of which Beenos owns 0.5%.</li>
</ul>



Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is a relatively small cross-border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥64.7bn last year.
The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in start-ups mainly in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.
Down below, we analyse the impact on Beenos’ valuation following GOTO’s impending IPO of which Beenos owns 0.5%.


GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The confirmation that Jerry Ng, one of the major shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a> will take a controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia</a> should create a win-win combination.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia</a> brings best-in-class exposure to multi finance, whilst integration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a> and GoTo group should help it to accelerate the company's digitalisation and boost growth.</li>
<li>The company trades on 2.7x FY21E PBV with a forecast ROE of 14.7% for FY2021E and 18.5% in FY2023E but historically it has generated ROEs of 25% plus.</li>
</ul>


The confirmation that Jerry Ng, one of the major shareholders of Bank Jago will take a controlling stake in BFI Finance Indonesia should create a win-win combination.

BFI Finance Indonesia brings best-in-class exposure to multi finance, whilst integration with Bank Jago and GoTo group should help it to accelerate the company's digitalisation and boost growth.
The company trades on 2.7x FY21E PBV with a forecast ROE of 14.7% for FY2021E and 18.5% in FY2023E but historically it has generated ROEs of 25% plus.


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Taking the Digital High Road

<ul>
<li>With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.</li>
<li>Consensus seems to be overestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.</li>
<li>At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.</li>
</ul>


With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.
Consensus seems to be overestimating Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.
At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.


Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

<section class="figure">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a>released its 3Q2021 results this week which saw its 9M2021 new bookings increase +72.7% YoY or +4.2% QoQ, reflecting a new normal situation versus last year when new booking had virtually ground to a halt. All the same, this performance was impressive given the backdrop of Emergency PPKM measures impacting mobility.</p>
<p>3Q2021 performance was relatively robust given that the country was in the midst of Emergency PPKM during the quarter with a stronger recovery taking place in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bf-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9276:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> profitability remained healthy with its interest spread at 11.3%, with the cost of funds steady at 8.5%, making it very competitive versus competition.</p>
<p>The company's NCL ratio declined significantly QoQ but slightly higher than last year, as a result of more repossessions and collateral disposals. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> continues to make good progress on restructured loans with 86.8% of restructured loans reverting to normal status as of the end of 9M2021.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
</section>
<section class="figure">
<section class="figure">
<p>The company continues to develop its digital capabilities and has been developing its fintech push through Pinjam Modal and it has also launched BFI Connect, which is an open API platform, which can be integrated into other platforms such as e-commerce.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The key message from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> management was that the company is moving back towards a growth trajectory, with new booking improving and receivables seeing higher repayments. We continue to see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> as the most interesting multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the potential to generate higher ROEs as the market recovers. </p>
</div>
</section>
</section>


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)released its 3Q2021 results this week which saw its 9M2021 new bookings increase +72.7% YoY or +4.2% QoQ, reflecting a new normal situation versus last year when new booking had virtually ground to a halt. All the same, this performance was impressive given the backdrop of Emergency PPKM measures impacting mobility.
3Q2021 performance was relatively robust given that the country was in the midst of Emergency PPKM during the quarter with a stronger recovery taking place in September. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) profitability remained healthy with its interest spread at 11.3%, with the cost of funds steady at 8.5%, making it very competitive versus competition.
The company's NCL ratio declined significantly QoQ but slightly higher than last year, as a result of more repossessions and collateral disposals. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) continues to make good progress on restructured loans with 86.8% of restructured loans reverting to normal status as of the end of 9M2021.



The company continues to develop its digital capabilities and has been developing its fintech push through Pinjam Modal and it has also launched BFI Connect, which is an open API platform, which can be integrated into other platforms such as e-commerce.

The key message from BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) management was that the company is moving back towards a growth trajectory, with new booking improving and receivables seeing higher repayments. We continue to see BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) as the most interesting multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the potential to generate higher ROEs as the market recovers. 




BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Shining Through in a Difficult Period

Indonesia

Tokopedia PT provides e-commerce services. The Company owns and operates an online e-commerce platform that allows individuals and small-to-mid-sized business owners to start their online stores.

Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos

Beenos owns 3.545bn shares of GoTo with a lock-up period of 8 months and at the IPO price, the company’s ownership share would be valued at around...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Taking the Digital High Road

The confirmation that Jerry Ng, one of the major shareholders of Bank Jago will take a controlling stake in BFI Finance Indonesia should create a...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Shining Through in a Difficult Period

We continue to see BFI Finance Indonesia as the premier multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the...

Angus Mackintosh