ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> has launched the Shopee App for Mexico to offer online sales in what would be its second foray in the Americas after a pilot initiative in 2019 in Brazil, which has been scaling up operations.</p>
<p>The expansion to Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, could mark a major new growth opportunity in cross-border sales but it will also mean more cash burn and a longer runway to profitability.</p>
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<div id="sda-INARTICLE">Shopee will offer free shipping throughout Mexico, offering items including electronics, clothes, toys, and home goods, which would suggest immediate cash burn. The features will be similar to its South East Asia Shopee App, which has been a huge success. </div>
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<div>The company has already had huge success with its gaming business in Latin America through Garena but its e-commerce business has more moving parts and has yet to be tested in a big way in Latin America, which does introduce an element of uncertainty to this latest move. </div>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> faces the challenge of facing off against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a>, which is a formidable adversary that has seen off <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> on its doorstep already. </div>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> does have a track record of winning share quickly seemingly "against all odds" in unseating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group (LAZADA SP)</a> in Indonesia. </div>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> trades on a lofty 15.5x FY21E EV/sales and 11.1x FY22E EV/Sales with forecast sales growth of +56% and +30.3% for FY21E and FY22E respectively but is not expected to breakeven until 2023 under current estimates. We continue to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> over the long-term for its leading position and rapid growth in gaming and e-commerce in South East Asia but this recent move may provide further leg to its long term growth. We would look to buy on any further weakness.</div>

Sea Ltd (SE US) has launched the Shopee App for Mexico to offer online sales in what would be its second foray in the Americas after a pilot initiative in 2019 in Brazil, which has been scaling up operations.
The expansion to Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, could mark a major new growth opportunity in cross-border sales but it will also mean more cash burn and a longer runway to profitability.

Shopee will offer free shipping throughout Mexico, offering items including electronics, clothes, toys, and home goods, which would suggest immediate cash burn. The features will be similar to its South East Asia Shopee App, which has been a huge success. 


The company has already had huge success with its gaming business in Latin America through Garena but its e-commerce business has more moving parts and has yet to be tested in a big way in Latin America, which does introduce an element of uncertainty to this latest move. 


Sea Ltd (SE US) faces the challenge of facing off against MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US), which is a formidable adversary that has seen off Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) on its doorstep already. 


Sea Ltd (SE US) does have a track record of winning share quickly seemingly "against all odds" in unseating Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and Lazada Group (LAZADA SP) in Indonesia. 


Sea Ltd (SE US) trades on a lofty 15.5x FY21E EV/sales and 11.1x FY22E EV/Sales with forecast sales growth of +56% and +30.3% for FY21E and FY22E respectively but is not expected to breakeven until 2023 under current estimates. We continue to like Sea Ltd (SE US) over the long-term for its leading position and rapid growth in gaming and e-commerce in South East Asia but this recent move may provide further leg to its long term growth. We would look to buy on any further weakness.

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Extending the Runway for a Bigger Plane?

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Indonesian mobile operator company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> released a respectable set of FY2020 results last week with a +6% YoY increase in service revenue, despite COVID-19.</p>
<p>The increase was driven by data revenue with a growth of +10% YoY to IDR21.39tn, making up 92% of service revenues, with 89% of its subscribers using smartphones, making it the purest play on data in the industry. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> also posted a +31% YoY increase in EBITDA to IDR13.06tn but profit for the year fell -91.8% to IDR 371.6bn. It did however see a +76% increase in FCF on the back of increased EBITDA. </p>
<p>2020 data traffic grew by +47% YoY partly due to an increase in the number of subscribers from 56.88 Mn in the 3Q2020 to 57.89 Mn in the 4Q2020. There was also a YoY increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) to IDR 36,000 in 2020 versus IDR35,000 for FY2019.</p>
<p>The company continues to build out its 4G coverage and reposition its subscriber base and reallocate capacity towards 4G, with only 10% now left using the 3G service.</p>
<p>For 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> is allocating a capex of IDR 7tn focusing on developing the network infrastructure, IT development, and digitization. In addition, the company is also focusing on the fiberization process to prepare the network for the eventual launch of 5G.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> remains the purest proxy for the continued growth in demand for data in Indonesia and should also be a beneficiary from the ongoing consolidation in the industry, with Hutchison's "3" slated to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>. </p>
<p>This should help to alleviate competitive pressures on data pricing. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) </a>trades on 3.7x FY21E EV/EBIDTA and 3.2x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 3-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 4.8x, making it look attractive from a valuation standpoint.</p>

Indonesian mobile operator company XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) released a respectable set of FY2020 results last week with a +6% YoY increase in service revenue, despite COVID-19.
The increase was driven by data revenue with a growth of +10% YoY to IDR21.39tn, making up 92% of service revenues, with 89% of its subscribers using smartphones, making it the purest play on data in the industry. 
XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) also posted a +31% YoY increase in EBITDA to IDR13.06tn but profit for the year fell -91.8% to IDR 371.6bn. It did however see a +76% increase in FCF on the back of increased EBITDA. 
2020 data traffic grew by +47% YoY partly due to an increase in the number of subscribers from 56.88 Mn in the 3Q2020 to 57.89 Mn in the 4Q2020. There was also a YoY increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) to IDR 36,000 in 2020 versus IDR35,000 for FY2019.
The company continues to build out its 4G coverage and reposition its subscriber base and reallocate capacity towards 4G, with only 10% now left using the 3G service.
For 2021, XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) is allocating a capex of IDR 7tn focusing on developing the network infrastructure, IT development, and digitization. In addition, the company is also focusing on the fiberization process to prepare the network for the eventual launch of 5G.
XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) remains the purest proxy for the continued growth in demand for data in Indonesia and should also be a beneficiary from the ongoing consolidation in the industry, with Hutchison's "3" slated to merge with Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ). 
This should help to alleviate competitive pressures on data pricing. XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) trades on 3.7x FY21E EV/EBIDTA and 3.2x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 3-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 4.8x, making it look attractive from a valuation standpoint.

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - High-Speed Digital Enabler

<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Indonesia's largest pharmaceutical company </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> is currently in talks with the Indonesian government to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine. A call with the company shed more light on this, as well as the prospects for 2021 for its core business.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> is also developing a COVID-19 vaccine with Genexine of Korea, which has already cleared the first clinical trial phase and is preparing for the second clinical trial.</span></p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">The distribution of the government-sponsored COVID-19 vaccine will be done through the subsidiary </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enseval-putera-megatrading-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ)</span></a>, which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>'s 95%-owned distribution arm.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> is preparing a number of expansion plans at home and abroad, with a planned capex of IDR1tn for 2021, paid out of internally generated funds.</span></p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Capex will also be used to complete the construction of an OTC drug factory in Myanmar, where there is strong demand for OTC drugs.</span></p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> scores quite highly from an ESG perspective and has just become the only company in Indonesia to achieve a "AA" rating from MSCI having previously been rated A.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> is forecast to see EPS increase by +7.5% in FY21E and +24.2% in FY22E and trades on 25.7x FY21E PER and 23.6x FY22E PER and trades on 15.4x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 14.4x FY22E EV/EBITDA, which are both below historical averages, making the company look attractive with a recovery ahead and in light of this latest vaccine news. </span></p>

Indonesia's largest pharmaceutical company Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is currently in talks with the Indonesian government to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine. A call with the company shed more light on this, as well as the prospects for 2021 for its core business.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is also developing a COVID-19 vaccine with Genexine of Korea, which has already cleared the first clinical trial phase and is preparing for the second clinical trial.
The distribution of the government-sponsored COVID-19 vaccine will be done through the subsidiary Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ), which is Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)'s 95%-owned distribution arm.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is preparing a number of expansion plans at home and abroad, with a planned capex of IDR1tn for 2021, paid out of internally generated funds.
Capex will also be used to complete the construction of an OTC drug factory in Myanmar, where there is strong demand for OTC drugs.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) scores quite highly from an ESG perspective and has just become the only company in Indonesia to achieve a "AA" rating from MSCI having previously been rated A.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is forecast to see EPS increase by +7.5% in FY21E and +24.2% in FY22E and trades on 25.7x FY21E PER and 23.6x FY22E PER and trades on 15.4x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 14.4x FY22E EV/EBITDA, which are both below historical averages, making the company look attractive with a recovery ahead and in light of this latest vaccine news. 

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Vaccinated for Future Growth

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> is well-known for its car leasing business in Indonesia, as one of the largest players in long-term car leasing through ASSA Rent, with around 13% market share. It is less well appreciated as a major player in logistics and for its technology-based express logistics company Anteraja, which services the booming e-commerce space in Indonesia. </p>
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<p>The company is also the no.1 used car auction player through JBA, with around 40% market share, providing a service for the majority of Indonesia's auto finance companies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> also has a complementary C2C online marketplace selling vehicles, which is connected to its used car and auction business. </p>
<p>The company's core car rental business will see growth of +10-15% as the economy recovers but Anteraja will see stronger growth driving the top line to grow +25% in 2021. Management expects Anteraja to account for more than 50% of sales in 1-2 years. </p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> currently trades on an FY21E PER multiple of 20.1x and F22E PER of 16.9x, which does not look expensive given the potential digital transformation ahead. </span></p>


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is well-known for its car leasing business in Indonesia, as one of the largest players in long-term car leasing through ASSA Rent, with around 13% market share. It is less well appreciated as a major player in logistics and for its technology-based express logistics company Anteraja, which services the booming e-commerce space in Indonesia. 

The company is also the no.1 used car auction player through JBA, with around 40% market share, providing a service for the majority of Indonesia's auto finance companies.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) also has a complementary C2C online marketplace selling vehicles, which is connected to its used car and auction business. 
The company's core car rental business will see growth of +10-15% as the economy recovers but Anteraja will see stronger growth driving the top line to grow +25% in 2021. Management expects Anteraja to account for more than 50% of sales in 1-2 years. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) currently trades on an FY21E PER multiple of 20.1x and F22E PER of 16.9x, which does not look expensive given the potential digital transformation ahead. 

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Auto Leasing, Logistics, and the Last Mile

<p>A call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> management revealed that loan growth continued to remain weak overall in 2020 but with some positive growth from corporate lending. </p>
<p>Expectations are for some recovery in loan growth in 2021 but a lot depends on the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines and on the recovery in GDP growth. This is probably the key risk.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> has been utilizing virtual channels and call centers to some success in order to stimulate mortgage and 4W consumer loans and will look to do a virtual expo for SMEs.</p>
<p>The bank is focusing on existing customers to push for higher utilization of credit lines from its SME and corporate customers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> will book some further provisioning in 4Q2020 but the level should come down versus 3Q2020. Loans at risk will also remain stable and credit costs will likely finish the year at the lower end of the bank's guidance. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is well-connected to the digital eco-system providing settlement services to all major players and top-ups for digital wallets. </p>
<p>The bank's own digital initiatives also continue to bear fruit, with increasing numbers of customers taking to mobile banking through increased transactions and account opening.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> continues to demonstrate its ESG credentials, with around 20% of its loan book covering sustainable sectors.</p>
<p>The bank trades on 4.2x FY21E PBV, with a forecast ROE of 15.8% in FY21E and 16.9% in FY22E, and will continue to trade at a premium to peers listed below on its strong management track record and lead in transactional banking. </p>

A call with Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) management revealed that loan growth continued to remain weak overall in 2020 but with some positive growth from corporate lending. 
Expectations are for some recovery in loan growth in 2021 but a lot depends on the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines and on the recovery in GDP growth. This is probably the key risk.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) has been utilizing virtual channels and call centers to some success in order to stimulate mortgage and 4W consumer loans and will look to do a virtual expo for SMEs.
The bank is focusing on existing customers to push for higher utilization of credit lines from its SME and corporate customers. 
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) will book some further provisioning in 4Q2020 but the level should come down versus 3Q2020. Loans at risk will also remain stable and credit costs will likely finish the year at the lower end of the bank's guidance. 
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is well-connected to the digital eco-system providing settlement services to all major players and top-ups for digital wallets. 
The bank's own digital initiatives also continue to bear fruit, with increasing numbers of customers taking to mobile banking through increased transactions and account opening.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) continues to demonstrate its ESG credentials, with around 20% of its loan book covering sustainable sectors.
The bank trades on 4.2x FY21E PBV, with a forecast ROE of 15.8% in FY21E and 16.9% in FY22E, and will continue to trade at a premium to peers listed below on its strong management track record and lead in transactional banking. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Sustainable Virtual Recovery Ahead

Indonesia

Tokopedia PT provides e-commerce services. The Company owns and operates an online e-commerce platform that allows individuals and small-to-mid-sized business owners to start their online stores.

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Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Extending the Runway for a Bigger Plane?

Sea Ltd (SE US) remains the listed key proxy for the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, fuelled by growing revenues from its gaming...

Angus Mackintosh

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - High-Speed Digital Enabler

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) remains the purest proxy for the continued growth in demand for data in Indonesia and should also be a beneficiary from the...

Angus Mackintosh

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Vaccinated for Future Growth

Kalbe, Indonesia's and SE Asia's largest pharma company, has seen some slow down in prescription drug sales due to the pandemic but this has been...

Angus Mackintosh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Auto Leasing, Logistics, and the Last Mile

ASSA is Indonesia's leading B2B car leasing company moving aggressively into related businesses of auto auctions, logistics, and the last mile...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Sustainable Virtual Recovery Ahead

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) continues to demonstrate its resilience and initiative during the pandemic period and remains a core holding for its...

Angus Mackintosh

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